Chapter 12.1 of the Report of the Comptroller and Auditor Generalreads:
12.1 Reckoning of Pre-1953 Contributions for the Old Age (Contributory) Pension
Introduction
Prior to the introduction of this special pension scheme, contributions paid prior to 1953 could only be used to satisfy two of the three qualifying conditions for the Old Age (Contributory) Pension (OACP) i.e. that a person must have entered insurance 10 years before pension age and have at least 156 social insurance contributions paid since first entering insurance. Pre-1953 contributions could not be used for the third qualifying condition i.e. yearly average of contributions.
Contributions paid by insured persons prior to 1953 did not contain a pensions element. This continued to be the case until 1961 when the pension element was introduced at the same time as the introduction of the OACP. However, contributions made under the unified system of social insurance, introduced in 1953, were fully recognised for pension purposes from the outset. The Minister for Social, Community and Family Affairs introduced a special OACP from 5 May 2000 for people with pre-1953 contributions who otherwise might not qualify for a pension or only for a reduced pension (Social Welfare Act 2000, Part V, 16).
The new arrangement allows people who commenced insurable employment before 1953 and who had at least five years paid insurance comprising either pre-1953 contributions or a combination of pre and post-1953 contributions to qualify for a pension. To qualify a person must be aged 66 or over and have a total of 260 full rate social insurance contributions paid, at least one of which must have been paid prior to 1953. In determining how pre-1953 contributions are reckoned, each 2 contributions paid count as 3 so if all contributions are paid prior to 1953 a person can qualify for the pension with 173 paid contributions.
The pension payable is currently €78.75 per week - 50% of the maximum weekly personal rate of the normal OACP. Additions for adults and child dependants, where applicable, are also payable at 50%.
Estimating the Cost of the Scheme
The Department of Social and Family Affairs had identified two groups of people who entered social insurance before 1953 as likely to benefit from the amended qualification:
People in receipt of a pension at rates less than the half rate pension
People not currently in receipt of another social welfare pension including applicants previously found not to qualify and people who had never previously applied for a pension.
The Department estimated that 3,000 people would qualify for the new payment at a full year cost of €8.9 million and a cost of €6.7 million in 2000 when seeking Department of Finance approval for the scheme. The overall claim load was expected to be 5,000.
The Department's calculations were based on the fact that approximately 36,000 applications for the pension had been rejected since 1988. No statistics were available for reject cases prior to that date. Of the 36,000 cases rejected, 29,500 had no date of entry into social insurance recorded and 3,400 had a date of entry recorded as pre-1953. The Department had estimated that a further 10,000 persons were in receipt of EU/or Bilateral Agreement pro-rata pensions from the Department. Many were paid at less than half the maximum rate. This process gave the Department a total of almost 42,900 people with a potential entitlement under the new qualification discounting the unknown numbers refused pension prior to 1988. The Department estimated an administration cost of approximately €760,000 (extra staff, overtime, etc) to:
Identify cases with a date of entry into insurance prior to 1953
Ascertain the total number of contributions paid in these cases
Determine if the person was still living.
Initial Take-up of Scheme
About 2,700 claims were received before the scheme was advertised in the national and provincial papers in late June 2000.
At the end of December 2000, the Department had received 11,669 claims for the new pension. It had also identified 13,500 pro-rata pensioners who might qualify for the new pension at a higher rate than their existing pension. The outcome of the Department's processing of both groups at end December 2000 is shown in Table
Table 12.1 Scheme Activity for period 5 May 2000 to 31 December 2000
Category
|
Applicants
|
Awarded ½ rate OACP
|
Awarded standard rate OACP
|
Not qualified
|
Not Processed at 31.12.00
|
New Applications
|
11,669
|
3,545
|
36
|
1,331
|
6,757
|
Existing pro-rata cases
|
13,500
|
7,332
|
448
|
3,663
|
2,057
|
Total
|
25,169
|
10,877
|
484
|
4,994
|
8,814
|
The annual cost of the 10,877 cases awarded the pension in 2000 was €33.4 million. The additional cost of the 484 cases found to be qualified for the standard pension was €1.8 million.
UK Applicants
Media coverage of the new scheme in November 2000 generated an increase in the number of applicants. The Department started to receive a significant number of applications from United Kingdom (UK) residents who accounted for over 40% of all applications at the end of the year. The Department advised UK applicants to submit claims through their local Department of Social Services (DSS) office in the UK - the standard arrangement under EU regulations.
In February 2001 the DSS Overseas Branch notified the Department that it had received around 2,000 Pre-1953 claims over the previous month. The Department had been under pressure since late 2000 from Irish societies in the UK and the Irish Embassy to have an advertising campaign in the UK. The Department was initially opposed to such a campaign, as it wanted to clear the existing backlog of cases on hand. The Federation of Irish Societies in the UK organised a series of presentations and workshops and Pre-1953 awareness Road Shows in early 2001 and, by May 2001, 2,258 out of the 2,947 new Pre-1953 claims unprocessed with the Department, were from persons resident outside the State.
In July 2001 the Department launched an advertising campaign in a number of UK daily newspapers that were considered to have wide circulation in the elderly Irish community and in two weekly Irish interest papers. Officials from the Pension Services Office (PSO) and the Department's Information Section attended seminars held in tandem with the newspaper campaign by the UK Irish societies in London, Manchester, Leeds and Birmingham.
Administrative Difficulties
The administrative problems caused by the number of unforeseen applications were exacerbated by the fact that processing individual claims was tedious and time consuming because of the necessity to trace social insurance and/or employment details which were over 50 years old and predated the Departments computerised record system. Significant overtime had to be worked in the Client Data Services Index section responsible for tracing old insurance numbers.
The Department calculated that at least one third of people rejected for the pension appealed the decision. In May 2002 the Department had 783 appeals on hand which could be broken down into two categories:
723 cases that required the issue of a clarification letter
60 cases that had been referred to the Appeals Officer.
People appealed mainly because no insurance number could be found for them, no complete insurance record existed or they were ex-public servants who felt they had not been treated fairly. Appeal cases were tortuous and required a check on all variations of the persons name and the county in which their mployment was registered. Many applicants had more than one insurance number as it was found that people were given a new insurance number if they changed job.
Current Take-Up and Back Log
Table 12.2 shows the take up of the scheme at August 2003.
Table 12.2
Claim Status
|
UK
|
Ireland
|
Others
|
Total
|
Awarded ½ rate OACP
|
13,715
|
10,267
|
3,580
|
27,562
|
Awarded standard rate OACP
|
327
|
232
|
60
|
619
|
Not qualified
|
4,137
|
5,128
|
875
|
10,140
|
Not Processed
|
520
|
351
|
60
|
931
|
Pro-rata Review Cases not Qualified 80
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
4,552
|
Total Applications
|
18,699
|
15,978
|
4,575
|
43,804
|
Claims for pre-1953 pensions are currently being received at a rate of 60 per week. Over and above the backlog of unprocessed claims and the current intake, there is still a considerable amount of associated work to be carried out.
There are 3,000 claims for examination for entitlement to an EU pro-rata pension. These are in respect of people who did not qualify for the standard pre-1953 pension and were passed to the EU area for review.
In addition, there are 2,840 cases with a pre-1953 pension that might have a possible entitlement to an EU pro-rata pension prior to May 2000. There are a further 2,420 pro-rata cases where entitlement may be affected by changes in the banding of rates introduced in Budget 1999.
Data provided by the Department indicates that 50% of claims awarded are from the UK as against 37% from Ireland. 7% of claims are from the USA, while Canada and Australia account for 3% and 2% respectively.
Actual Cost of the Scheme
The pre-1953 pension scheme was estimated to cost €6.7million in 2000 and €8.9million for a full year.
Table 12.3 gives details of scheme expenditure for the period 2000 to 2002.
Table 12.3 Pre-1953 pension expenditure 2000-2002
Year
|
€m
|
2000
|
26.1
|
2001
|
70.7
|
2002
|
113.1
|
Total
|
209.9
|
The cost of the additional administrative arrangements put in place to cope with the workload amounted to €1.6m.
As the Department completely underestimated the cost and scale of the scheme, I sought the views of the Accounting Officer.
Accounting Officer's Response
The estimates of the cost of the scheme were derived from an analysis of previous claims to pensions that had been rejected on the basis of insufficient contributions. While it was originally estimated that 6,000 to 11,000 people could benefit under the proposal, this was reduced to 3,000 based on experience of take up of previous pension proposals where the costs had been overestimated. On this basis, the full year cost was estimated at €8.9m.
The reason for the underestimate was, essentially, that the Department did not anticipate the influx of claims for the pre-1953 pension from persons resident abroad. While the estimates that were made did anticipate that some persons from abroad would qualify, the actual numbers involved were seriously underestimated.
The Department is frequently required to estimate the costs of policy proposals and its record in this regard is a good one and this has been recognised by the Department of Finance. The experience in this case was highly unusual.
The unexpected high take-up rate from abroad was influenced by a major campaign by groups working on behalf of people living in certain centres of Irish population in the UK to raise awareness of this particular scheme together with the information campaign undertaken by the Department itself.
Estimating costs in cases like this involves the use of data from the Departments records system. In the case of pre-1953 insurance records, which are held on microfilm, the data are in some cases incomplete and need to be supplemented from other sources. The problem is lack of quality data rather than lack of expertise. The level of expertise in the Department is high and has been supplemented by the recent secondment of a statistician from the CSO. The Department also employs independent actuarial advice from time to time in costing proposals.
It is always difficult to estimate costs where comprehensive data are not available. The Department is conscious that the underestimation, which occurred in this case, had serious implications for expenditure on the Departments programmes and has emphasised the need to question in the most thorough fashion the costing of any expenditure proposals, which arise.
The Department will take on board the specific lessons of this project in estimating the costs of similar proposals in the future.
Chapter 12.1 draws attention to a serious underestimation by the Department of the cost of the scheme introduced by the Social Welfare Act 2000 to give greater recognition to social insurance contributions paid prior to 1953 for the purpose of entitlement to contributory old age pension.
The year 1953 is something of a watershed in social welfare terms with the introduction of a new social insurance regime. That year has invariably had a significance in reckoning contributions prior to that when calculating benefits.
The proposal to change the law to provide for the granting of a special contributory pension for certain people with pre-1953 contributions was made as part of a package of social welfare improvements put forward by the Department in a memorandum to Government in February 2000. The estimated full year cost of the proposal set out in the memorandum was €8.9 million. This figure was computed on the basis of 3,000 successful claims being made. As we see from the report, this turned out to be very wide of the mark. By August this year, over 28,000 awards have been made with some claims still to be processed. In 2002, the full year costs had risen to €113 million, although I should say that this includes an element of one-off arrears. Nevertheless current indications are that the recurring annual cost of the scheme works out at about €100 million more than was estimated.
Clearly this places a big question mark over the Department's estimation procedures. I put this to the Accounting Officer. In reply, he stated that this was an aberration when set against the Department's good record in this regard and was largely attributable to two factors. First, the poor quality of the pre-1953 contribution records and, second, the unexpectedly high take-up rate from abroad, particularly from the UK where a major awareness campaign was undertaken. He assured me that the Department would take on board the specific lessons of this project in estimating the costs of similar proposals in future.
As I said on a number of occasions before the committee, the orderly management of the public finances requires accurate costing of expenditure proposals. Had the Government been aware of the magnitude of the cost implications it might have responded differently to the proposal before it.