asked the Taoiseach whether he is aware that statistics of gross agricultural production are furnished in the Statistical Bulletin on the basis of including only live stock sold or consumed; and, if so, whether he will direct the regular provision of a table of gross agricultural production including reasonable allowance for increase or decrease in the annual numbers of live stock on the land in the year for which the estimate of production is made.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Live-Stock Statistics.
As stated in the explanatory notes to the basic article (Irish Trade Journal and Statistical Bulletin, September, 1938, pp. 131-135) in which the methods of estimation of these statistics were described and as noted in many other official publications, in which the basis of the figures is given (e.g., Irish Statistical Survey, 1949-50 (pr. 536), page 17; Tables of National Income and Expenditure, 1938 and 1944-50 (pr. 350), page six), the statistics of gross agricultural output are based on estimates of sales off farms and of the consumption of Irish agricultural produce in farm households. They, accordingly, exclude any allowance for the value of the increases (or decreases) in the numbers of live stock on farms or similar capital items.
Up to and including the agricultural year 1935-36 the estimates prepared included changes in the numbers of live stock valued at end of year prices, but for reasons explained on page 131 of the issue of the Irish Trade Journal and Statistical Bulletin referred to above, after consultation with the best authorities, a change was made to the present concept. As the reasons were given fairly fully in the publication referred to, I do not consider it necessary to repeat them here. The Central Statistics Office is of the opinion that the present formula is the most suitable and it is not proposed to make any change in the content of the present official figures of gross and net output.
However, the figures for the value at end of year prices of the changes in the numbers of live stock on farms for 1938 and for 1944-49 were given on page six of the Tables of National Income and Expenditure, 1938 and 1944-50. The corresponding figure for 1950 was plus £1.6 million, and it is proposed to continue to publish this series of estimates so that persons interested can make adjustments in this regard if they so desire.
Arising out of the Parliamentary Secretary's reply, has his attention been directed to the anachronistic result of this system of estimation? By reference to page six of the Tables of National Income and Expenditure, 1938 and 1944-50, referred to in his reply, he will observe that while there is a substantial reduction in the numbers of live stock in 1946-47, the impact of that reduction by this method of calculation adopted by the Central Statistics Office did not manifest itself until 1948-49 and 1950 and in the years 1948-49 and 1950 there were substantial increases in the number of live stock the impact of which will not make itself felt until 1952-53 and 1954, so that, in fact, the Central Statistics Office estimates of agricultural production have no relation to actual fact as at present drafted.
The only reply I have to make is that the present method of computation was decided upon after 1935-36 on the best expert advice that the statistics office could get.
But is it not manifestly illusory?
Why did you not change it?
I shall tell you why. I did not discover this piece of codology until about three weeks ago and I then discovered it by the merest chance. I knew the Fianna Fáil propagandists were lying but I was damned if I could find out where the lie lay.
That is all you knew about it.
I was looking for the lie for a long time until I found it.
Who is the propagandist now?
You will get your hand pinned to the table sooner or later.