asked the Taoiseach what the import excess for 1967 would have been if the terms of trade had been (a) one per cent less advantageous, (b) at 1966 levels, and (c) at 1965 levels; and whether he can make any forecast of the likely level of the terms of trade for 1968 having particular regard to devaluation.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Terms of Trade.
3.
It is not possible to measure the quantitative effect of changes in the terms of trade on the volume of imports and exports. What can be done is to estimate the value, at different price levels, of the quantum of imports and exports recorded in a certain period.
In 1967 the actual import excess was £106.1 million. If the actual 1967 totals for imports and exports are revalued using the official import and export price (unit value) index numbers for the years 1966 and 1967 (provisional). then the import excess becomes £111.9 million. A corresponding revaluation using the index numbers for the year 1965 yields an import excess of £116.7 million.
The answer to (a) of the Deputy's question depends on the allocation of the hypothetical change of one per cent between changes in import and export prices. For example if the change is due entirely to lower export prices the import excess becomes £108.9 million—if the change is due entirely to higher import prices the import excess becomes £109.7 million.
While both import prices and export prices are expected to rise in 1968 it is not possible to make a reliable forecast of the terms of trade.
4.
asked the Taoiseach if he will state the level of the terms of trade for each of the years 1965, 1966 and 1967 for Irish trade with (a) Great Britain, (b) the Six Counties (c) the EFTA countries and (d) member countries of EEC.
The particulars requested by the Deputy are not available. The terms of trade index is derived from the import and export price (unit value) indices which are compiled only in respect of the aggregate trade with all countries.