asked the Minister for Finance whether he is aware of the forecast of the Economic and Social Research Institute of continued high unemployment figures, with little prospects of a reduction in the number of unemployed in 1973; and whether he will make a statement on the matter.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Unemployment Figures.
13.
I would point out to the Deputy that the sole responsibility for the views published in the Quarterly Economic Commentary lies with the authors of that publication and not with the Economic and Social Research Institute itself. He will also see that on page 14 of the publication the authors draw attention to the high degree of uncertainty relating to any economic projection for the coming year.
After making allowance for seasonal influences, unemployment, which appeared to have eased slightly in the first quarter of 1972, rose again in the succeeding two quarters. The latest indications are that the underlying trend of unemployment showed an improvement in October. The greater part of the increases in unemployment between March and September was attributable to developments in the services and building and construction sectors. Added to this is the fact that, because of the structural change which part of the industrial sector is at present undergoing, a high level of redundancies has tended to cancel out the new industrial employment being provided.
To stimulate building and construction the Government authorised additional expenditure during the year of £4.8 million under the Public Capital Programme and there is now some evidence of recovery in this industry following the slackness in the earlier part of the year. Also, every effort is being made to counter the adverse effects of publicity concerning events in Northern Ireland on investment in this country.
It is particularly difficult to forecast the unemployment level for 1973 because apart from the definitional problems involved in measuring genuine unemployment the level of net emigration also affects its magnitude. The Deputy can be assured, however, that the Government will do all in its power to bring about an appreciable reduction in the numbers unemployed in 1973.
Would the Minister agree that whatever about his scepticism of the forecast in the ESRI quarterly report, that taken in conjunction with the British economic situation and the normal unemployment situation in the winter period, it would appear that the unemployment position would be that much more serious at the beginning of next year? Would the Minister agree that the ESRI are correct, taking in all the factors such as the higher redundancy rate consequent on freer trade with European countries, and that it adds up to a very serious unemployment situation in the early part of next year?
I certainly would not want to under-estimate the seriousness of the problem but, lest there be any misunderstanding, I would not like it to be thought that I had expressed scepticism about the report. What I did was to quote from it the statement to the effect that the authors drew attention to the high degree of uncertainty relating to any economic projection for the coming year. This was from the report itself. I have indicated some of the factors that operate. The Deputy will appreciate that some of them are matters over which we have not a great deal of control, such as the situation in the North and the consequences that flow from that. I certainly would assure the Deputy that the seriousness of the unemployment situation is affected by these factors and, as I said, the question of net emigration, which is nil at the moment, is not one which I or the Government would wish to under-estimate in any way.
Could the Minister say if there will be any short-term capital injections into public works or the building sector to offset the seasonal unemployment which this year, taken in conjunction with the other matters, will make the position that much more serious?
I have already pointed out that earlier in the year, because of the projections in the building and construction industry, a sum of nearly £5 million extra was injected into it. This is showing results in recovery in employment trends in that industry. I would not rule out the possibility of further action of this kind, not necessarily in relation to that sector of industry, if it could be demonstrated that it would have the effect of creating employment in the coming months. The Deputy will appreciate that this is very difficult to achieve.
Is it not a fact that the factors the Minister mentioned, the North, unemployment in Britain and the fall in emigration, were operative throughout the campaign for entry to the Common Market and that there was no question whatever raised by the Minister or by his party that these problems would not be solved, by entry into the Common Market and we would have high employment and no emigration?
Of course. The Deputy is quite right in saying that these factors were operating during that campaign but there is a fallacy in his logic, in so far as whether we went into the Common Market or not these factors would operate. What was stated in the campaign by most of those who favoured entry into the EEC was that given these factors our opportunity to recover was much greater within the EEC than it would be outside it.
I am calling Question No. 14.
Am I right in saying that it is like the Anglo-Irish Trade Agreement?
That worked out all right.
On the contrary. We all know what happened in the textile industry.
The Deputy knows that has nothing to do with it. There is a problem with the textile industry all over the world.