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Dáil Éireann debate -
Thursday, 31 Mar 1977

Vol. 298 No. 6

Bretton Woods Agreements (Amendment) Bill, 1977: Second Stage.

I move: "That the Bill be now read a Second Time."

The main purpose of the Bill is to approve the Government's acceptance of the second amendment to the articles of agreement of the International Monetary Fund, the text of which is set out in the Schedule to the Bill, and to make the necessary changes in the previous Bretton Woods Agreement Acts arising from this second amendment. The Bill also authorises the Central Bank to make certain payments to the IMF.

The proposals incorporated in the second amendment to the IMF articles provide for a major reform of the international monetary system—the most important revision of these arrangements since the par value system based on fixed exchange rates was established at Bretton Woods in 1944. The need for reform became apparent during the sixties and assumed a new urgency with the breakdown of the par value system in the early seventies. The major world currencies then gradually abandoned the fixed exchange rate regime, which constituted the central element of the international monetary system, and we have since experienced a period of widespread floating of currencies in contravention of the existing IMF articles of agreement. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system led to a major reappraisal of international monetary relationships in the light of the changed economic realities of the seventies. Five years of debate and negotiation within the IMF have produced a consensus on major adaptations to the international monetary system, particularly designed to provide for the greater flexibility which today's monetary relationships require.

An explanatory memorandum has been circulated along with the Bill for the information of Deputies. This memorandum sets out the main themes of the proposed amendment of the IMF articles. While the mechanics of the proposed new international monetary system may be fundamentally different from the old, the objectives towards which they strive remain unchanged, namely the fostering of international monetary co-operation through the medium of the IMF; the promotion of the balanced growth of trade; the elimination of financial barriers to trade; exchange stability; and the provision of financial assistance to countries with balance of payments difficulties to allow them the opportunity of correcting maladjustments without resorting to measures destructive of national or international prosperity.

By far the most important area of change in the new international system concerns the exchange rate arrangements which countries may adopt. The Bretton Woods system, envisaged international monetary stability as being based on a system of fixed though adjustable exchange rates supported, when necessary, by IMF assistance. Adherence to this fixed exchange-rate regime encouraged members to adopt stable economic policies and facilitated the unprecedented expansion in world trade of the post-war years. But inevitable divergences between national trends in growth and inflation made the rigid structure established in 1944 increasingly obsolete. These developments accelerated during the sixties and early seventies, which were characterised by faster growth in the volume of world trade and also by external shocks of unprecedented magnitude. The suspension of the convertibility of the US dollar in 1971, which heralded the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, was thus inevitable.

The new system takes a radically different approach from Bretton Woods. Now each country will be free to adopt the exchange rate arrangement of its own choice. This approach recognises that countries' competitiveness is subject to change and that it is much less destabilising to permit exchange rate flexibility in response to market forces than to attempt to adhere to a fixed exchange rate until its abandonment is forced after costly financing. The IMF, however, is conscious of the potential instability that could result from undue reliance by countries on the exchange rate flexibility which the new system allows. Accordingly an obligation is imposed on member countries of the IMF to collaborate with the IMF and other members "to assure orderly exchange arrangements and to promote a stable system of exchange rates". In particular each member will be required "to direct its economic and financial policies toward the objective of fostering orderly economic growth with reasonable price stability" and must "seek to promote stability by fostering orderly underlying economic and financial conditions". The emphasis therefore of the new system is on developing stability from within through attention to responsible management of underlying economic and financial policies in individual member countries.

To ensure the effective operation of the new system, the IMF will "exercise firm surveillance over the exchange rate policies of members" and "will adopt specific principles for the guidance of all members with respect to those policies". These principles and related procedures are at present being worked out. This surveillance function does not imply that the IMF will have power to determine the policies of member countries. It does, however, mean that the IMF will seek to ensure that members' behaviour should not be at the expense of other members' well-being. In particular the IMF will be concerned to ensure that members observe their undertaking to avoid exchange rate manipulation which could have potentially harmful consequences if resorted to on a wide scale.

I need hardly emphasise to this House the importance which we attach to the successful realisation of the objective of exchange rate stability. For a small open economy, such as ours, a stable external environment is particularly desirable.

The new system, in its flexible approach to exchange arrangements, will accommodate more the practice of large than of small countries. Most small countries will, no doubt, continue to peg their currency to that of one of the major currencies or to a basket of currencies. In this context, perhaps I should mention that no change in Ireland's exchange arrangements is required under the new system. As I have stated before, the Government are keeping our exchange rate position under continuous review and the balance of advantage is still considered to favour the present arrangements. The new IMF articles do, however, give us a wider range of choice of alternative regimes than the existing articles.

Before leaving the question of exchange rates, I should add that provision has been made in the amended articles for a possible return to a system of exchange arrangements based on stable but adjustable par values. This would be much less rigid than the Bretton Woods par value system as no country would be obliged to adhere to the par value system. The introduction of such a system would only be contemplated where there was general agreement that international economic and financial conditions were conducive to such a move. The essence of these provisions is to allow the flexibility which present economic realities require while permitting evolution to new arrangements as and when conditions permit. For the immediate future however it seems likely that the international monetary system will continue to be characterised by a diversity of exchange arrangements. The important change which the amended articles will entail is to make such arrangements subject to surveillance and guidance by the IMF.

Now that the exchange rate system established at Bretton Woods is being officially replaced, it is appropriate that the role of gold, which constituted the linchpin of that system, should also be reduced. Under Bretton Woods, gold was the ultimate reserve asset of the international monetary system. However, gold has long ceased to perform adequately its monetary functions.

With the growth of trade since the war, the need for international liquidity has also grown, but the stock of monetary gold has not grown correspondingly. Consequently the world has come to rely increasingly on holding US dollars and other currencies for its supply of reserves. In the event, the growth in dollar holdings led to the suspension by the US in 1971 of its undertaking to convert dollars into gold.

In recognition of the inadequacies of gold, the new system promotes a reduction in gold's monetary role in a number of ways. The most important changes under this heading include the abolition of the present official price of gold as well as abolition of the present obligation to use gold in certain IMF transactions—for example, in quota subscriptions and in payment of charges.

Most significant, perhaps, in this connection, is the provision empowering the fund to dispose of its gold holdings and to use any profits from that disposal for normal IMF purposes, or for other uses, including use for the special benefit of members with low per capita incomes. Already agreement has been reached on the disposal of 50 million ounces of gold, one-third of the total IMF gold holdings. Of this amount 25 million ounces is being sold back to IMF members in proportion to their IMF quotas at the official price of SDR 35 per ounce. The balance of 25 million ounces is being sold by auction with the profits over and above the official price being used for the benefit of developing countries through a Trust Fund. Auctions for this purpose have already commenced and are expected to continue at regular intervals over a four-year period.

One of the objectives set out in the new IMF articles is to make the SDR —the Special Drawing Right—the principal reserve asset of the international monetary system. This is a reserve asset created by the IMF at the end of the sixties. It was designed to supplement the supply of gold and foreign currency reserves to meet any need for international liquidity. If it were to become the principal reserve asset, it would also enable a measure of international control to be exercised over the global supply of liquidity. There has been a continued growth in recent years in the foreign currency component of official reserves, which has been considered adequate to meet the need for global liquidity. Consequently, no allocations of SDRs have taken place since 1972. There has not yet been agreement on measures that would ensure that a substantial part of the growth in global liquidity would be met through periodic allocations of SDRs.

The present amendment of the IMF articles provides for changes in the characteristics and expansion in the possible uses of the SDR which should enhance the attractiveness of the asset and promote the objective of making it the principal reserve asset of the international monetary system. Under the new system the SDR will assume an increasingly important role as a unit of account and as the preferred means of paying IMF charges. Furthermore the categories of official holders will be increased, countries will have greater freedom to enter into SDR transactions with each other on a voluntary basis and the rules governing the use of the SDR will be eased. Only time will tell whether these measures will promote the greater use of SDR, so necessary if it is to assume an increased role in the reformed monetary system.

Few would question the desirability of this end, which would ensure increased international control over world liquidity. For my part I welcome the prospect of increased international control of global liquidity which could help obviate the international inflationary pressures which we have experienced in recent years and to which we, as an open economy, are particularly vulnerable. It is therefore in the interest of all nations, but particularly of the smaller economies, to ensure that the objective of promoting the role of SDR, to which we subscribe in the proposed amendment, is realised as quickly as possible.

The IMF have taken the opportunity afforded by the present reforms to modify obsolete provisions and incorporate in the articles certain policies and practices that experience has proved useful.

The most significant change in this context is the provision that the IMF's holding of the currencies of each member will be usable by the IMF in order to provide balance-of-payments financing to other members—the basic purpose for which quota-subscriptions are required to be paid to the IMF by all members. However under existing arrangements some countries can effectively prevent the use of their currencies in IMF loans. Ireland and the other countries, which have permitted the use of their currencies, have long argued that such a situation throws a disaproportionate burden of financing on some countries while effectively reducing the resources available to the IMF. We therefore fully endorse the provision in the amended articles requiring that the currencies of all members be made usable. This will add substantially to the fund's usable resources and will strengthen its ability to provide temporary balance of payments assistance to members.

Among the other important operational changes are the simplification of the provisions governing the repayment of IMF loans and the granting of authority to the IMF to adopt special policies on the use of their resources, as may be required for special balance of payments problems. This again is further evidence of flexibility of approach, which today's economic relationships require to be built into the new monetary system.

Provision is also being made in the amended articles for improvement and change in the organisational aspects of the IMF. The most significant aspect of this change is an enabling provision which would permit the establishment of a new organ to be known as the council. This council would be similar to the present interim committee, a body representing all the member countries of the IMF, charged with advising on the management and adaptation of the international monetary system. The council would differ from the interim committee in that it would have powers of decision rather than be solely an advisory body.

A number of changes are necessary in the existing Bretton Woods Agreements Acts because of the amendment of the articles. These are largely concerned with simply changing the references in the Acts to various articles which have a new number in the amended articles and do not provide for any new powers.

Provision is being made for additional power to be given to the Central Bank to make any purchases of gold from the IMF required to be made by Ireland under the amended articles. This arises from the restitution of gold by the IMF which I have already mentioned. The Central Bank have been given the obligation to carry out transactions with the IMF on Ireland's behalf and it is appropriate that this additional power should also be given to the bank.

Pending ratification of the amended articles, the IMF decided to commence the restitution of gold using a "scarce currency" clause in the existing articles and the first restitution took place in January, 1977. This clause was incorporated in the Bretton Woods Agreement largely to cater for the scarcity of dollars which emerged in the post-war era.

When Ireland became a member of the IMF in 1957—to which effect was given in our Bretton Woods Agreement Act, 1957—it was not seen as necessary to provide for payments under this head. The Central Bank, using their general powers to purchase gold under the Currency and Central Bank Acts, 1927-1971, have effected the necessary transactions in connection with this first restitution. It is felt desirable to give retrospective sanction to these transactions in this Bill under the Bretton Woods legislation.

The subject of international monetary relationships is no doubt a mystery as far as most people are concerned. However, after the experience of the last five years, few will have failed to grasp the importance of a stable international monetary environment for balanced economic development at national level. We in Ireland have been particularly vulnerable to the international inflationary forces which were partly the cause, and partly the consequence, of the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system.

We attach considerable importance therefore to the proposed amendment of the IMF articles which heralds the return of the international monetary system to a legal framework. We are particularly pleased that the IMF will henceforth assume responsibility for surveillance of the multifarious exchange arrangements which have replaced the Bretton Woods par value system.

This is a matter of some delicacy, touching as it does on questions of national sovereignty. However, I am sure that all nations will subscribe to the end which it seeks to attain, namely the operation of the international monetary system in a manner which promotes the welfare of all while discouraging any selfish national measures which prejudice the interests of others.

Finally, let me say that the proposed amendment of the IMF articles while it represents a new and radical departure from the system established at Bretton Woods in 1944, nevertheless recognises the essential philosophy of the Bretton Woods Agreement— namely the interdependence of nations and a consequent determination to ensure international co-operation which would promote the welfare of all. It is in the spirit of the 1944 agreement that I now commend the approval of its amendment to the House.

We on this side of the House have no difficulty in supporting this Bill since it seeks to give legislative approval to efforts made by the IMF to improve the chaotic situation at present existing in the international monetary scene. I do not think, in doing this, however, that we ought to fool ourselves into thinking that the measures on which approval was eventually reached in the IMF, after a great deal of difficulty and argument, go anywhere near establishing a system in any way comparable to the system established by Bretton Woods in 1944 and which has broken down in recent years. The Minister, although he has phrased it delicately, has said that.

Many members of the IMF, large and small, have been engaging in activities which were quite illegal under the existing Bretton Woods Agreements. This includes ourselves because we have been indirectly engaged in floating our currency, something which is illegal under the existing arrangements. That the system broke down is indisputable. The reasons why it broke down are another matter and have already led to and probably will in future lead even more to many learned treatises on the causes and consequences. I do not know if we will ever achieve a satisfactory consensus on this, nor whether that is of great importance except to those who are technically concerned.

The reality of the situation does, as the Minister said towards the end of his speech, affect all of us, men, women and children in all the countries which are members of the IMF. The system which has now broken down may have had some disadvantages but it had the great advantage of certainty and control. It broke down under pressure—pressure of the developments in world trade, pressure on countries which were running substantial balance of payments deficits which they could not meet, at least without taking what their Governments regarded as unpalatable or unacceptable political decisions based on the economic measures they would have had to take. They took what appeared to be the easy way out. In many cases it started with devaluations and then floating their currencies. Even the floating arrangements arrived at by many countries were not clean floats, as they are called. In many cases they were dirty floats. That means that the central banks concerned were intervening in the markets to keep up or keep down the prices of particular currencies. To the best of my knowledge no Government or central bank have ever openly acknowledged that they engaged in these activities. Nevertheless, it is a matter of very common knowledge that quite a number of central banks on the authority and on the instructions of their Governments have done so. As a result of their doing so we got a completely artificial situation whereby the value of a country's currency was to some extent being determined by its central bank, not by its true economic value and not by the value fixed if it adhered fully to the original Bretton Woods Agreement.

The reasons are complex. I may be quite wrong but I believe that a contributory factor has been the role of gold, about which I want to say a word in a few minutes. In the meantime the important thing to understand in this regard is that the system has broken down and that it has proved inadequate for the strains put upon it by the developments in world trade and by the unwillingness of Governments to face up to the consequences of the large balance of payments deficits they were running.

As the Minister said quite rightly, for a small country like ours uncertainty in the international monetary field can only be harmful. It is certainly vital to small countries which cannot exert any real pressure in the international monetary scene that there be an international monetary system which provides a degree of certainty to enable them to operate on a basis that can be planned ahead. For example, before sterling started to float an Irish exporter could take an order which he would be supplying a year or two years ahead to a country outside the sterling area and calculate, at least in regard to the value of the currency in which he was being paid, how much he was going to receive and whether, on his estimates of his own costs, he could make a profit or not. As soon as sterling started to float—I am speaking only of sterling; there are other currencies floating too but I want to take it in simple terms—he could not with any degree of certainty calculate whether when the time came for him to supply the goods and be paid he was going to make a profit or loss. I mention this as a simple example of the degree to which floating currencies interfere with trade, lead to uncertainty, and in many cases lead to loss of trade, particularly by manufacturers and others operating in countries whose currencies are floating. Even if one is operating in a country whose currency is strong one is, on the export market, forced to deal with countries whose currencies are floating or are of uncertain value, the same situation arises in reverse. Therefore it should be clear that anything that can be done to bring about the creation of an international monetary regime which has a degree of certainty is certainly in the interests of small countries, and almost certainly in the longer term is in the interests of even the strongest countries in the world.

We should be realistic enough to recognise that the proposed amendment of the Bretton Woods Agreement, the subject of this Bill, is not going to bring that about. It is not the answer to all our problems nor, in fairness, did the Minister claim it was. However, I am disappointed at some of the omissions in this. I want to make it clear that in saying this I am not in any way being critical of the Minister or the Government. This amendment of the Bretton Woods Agreement is, as I have said, the result of a great deal of lengthy and tedious negotiations between the member countries of the IMF; to be realistic about it, between the large members of the IMF, the people who carry the weight and the votes. We are members, we participate, we express our views, sometimes perhaps very sound views, but when it comes to the crunch we do not carry any weight. It is the larger countries who decide on this and the larger countries could not agree on the major reforms that were necessary.

Generally speaking, the changes proposed in the amendment, the subject of this Bill, which are in regard to exchange rates, are simply giving an air of legality to what has heretofore been illegal. They do not provide a solution to the basic problem which has arisen in recent years. I do not pretend that even with the best will in the world the countries concerned could find easily a solution to that problem. Nobody is quite certain what is the right approach to this. If the system which the world members of the IMF operated in the past cannot now be operated—and it cannot be— nobody is quite certain as to the right alternative. We know the general direction in which we are going but we cannot say with certainty what is the right system.

It is clear that a rigid system which does not recognise or provide for the natural changes that take place in the trading position between one country and another is a system which will eventually break down. If a country runs a large balance of payments deficit, then some other country or countries are running a balance of payments surplus. If this continues for a very long time, obviously the exchange rates have to be changed. The manner in which they should be changed and the relationship between that change and the underlying economic strength or weakness of a particular country is where the difficulty arises in providing a system that will take adequate account of these changes and will produce them in an orderly way. Nobody can pretend that the amendment of the Bretton Woods agreement now before us will do that. It is really only giving a cloak of legality to what has heretofore been illegal, but it does not tackle the basic problem and it cannot do so in the absence of fundamental agreement between the major trading countries.

I believe that gold has contributed to the breakdown of the system. I have always believed, and continue to believe, that gold represents a form of superstition. There are people who say that this is not realistic, that over a long time anybody who buys gold at a reasonable price will not lose, and that gold in the foreseeable future will be a valuable commodity. That may be so, but it does not alter the fact that the whole basis on which gold gets its value is a form of illusion. It would be equally true to say that people engaged in fortune telling may in the foreseeable future, be in a business in which they will make money, but it does not alter the fact that they are engaged in making money from a form of superstition.

If that was all that was involved, it would be a fairly harmless exercise, but it is much more than that. It has been pernicious, because for a long time the role of gold in the international monetary system was that it provided the basic asset backing of world currency. The amount of gold made available is determined by a handful of Governments, some of which hold diametrically opposed political views, but they all seem to act in the same way when it comes to supplying it to the market. I am referring particularly to South Africa and the Soviet Union. Whichever country is concerned, they are dealing in gold in what they conceive to be in the best interest of their economy, not in the interests of the international monetary system. It seems self-evident that the basic unit backing international monetary system should be international and should be controlled internationally. It should not be subject to the control of any Government or any group of governments getting together.

Efforts were made to supplement the role of gold in financing the growth in world trade with a great deal of success, but a system which finds itself depending to any notable degree on gold or any similar material is a system which is basically flawed, lacking in reason, and not in accordance with what we could reasonably expect the world to have produced in the last quarter of the 20th century. That is not to say that I believe this system will change and that gold will be phased out. Too many people have a vested interest in it. One of the basic problems in trying to bring about the fundamental change in the international monetary system has related to the question of what the role of gold should be. Predictably enough, those Governments which had a relatively small supply of gold were very anxious to phase it out, and the Governments which had large supplies of gold in their national reserves were totally opposed to any move in that direction. France is the outstanding example of this. Various learned arguments have gone on for a very long time on this question, but the reality is that we need an international monetary system which provides the mechanical method of adjusting currencies in an orderly way related to the change in a country's economic strength or weakness.

The SDR's or paper gold, which were introduced some years ago by the IMF are a step in that direction, and some move is being made in this amendment of the agreement to try to give a much greater role to SDR's. Until we have an international monetary system in which the basic unit of account is something like the SDRs, internationally controlled and with teeth given to the body exercising the international control, we will not have a rational international monetary system. The move here is in that direction but we are a long way from the ultimate goal. While the Minister properly expressed a decent and respectable confidence in the attitudes and goodwill of the members of the IMF in the future, he knows as well as I that this is a misplaced confidence. All the evidence suggests that it is. For instance, when the Minister was talking about the function of the IMF and its surveillance function he said:

This surveillance function does not imply that the IMF will have power to determine the policies of member countries. It does, however, mean that the IMF will seek to ensure that members' behaviour should not be at the expense of other members' well-being. In particular the IMF will be concerned to ensure that members observe their undertaking to avoid exchange rate manipulation which could have potentially harmful consequences if resorted to on a wide scale.

I have not much doubt that if a small country like Ireland were to engage in these activities the IMF could probably restrain us effectively. But equally, I feel convinced that if one of the larger countries were to engage in this type of activity, the IMF could make noises but could do nothing about it. It is because of that situation that the existing system has broken down, because large countries have done things which were clearly quite illegal and the IMF were unable to do anything about it. Nothing that I can see in this amendment of the agreement will improve the power of the IMF to deal with these problems. Ultimately this will only happen when all the countries concerned have agreed to vest a part of their sovereignity in the IMF. As the Minister said, it is a delicate area. He skirted around it carefully, but perhaps I am at greater liberty than he to talk in this regard because of our respective roles.

I would be afraid of getting a belt of a crozier.

No doubt I shall have to duck them at some time in the future but at present I am reasonably immune in that respect. The reality is that until the major countries can come to agree to pooling a certain amount of their sovereignty and vest it in the IMF, all we are doing is tinkering with the system. We will have to struggle on for a very long time with an international monetary system that will have all the disadvantages we have experienced in recent years, such as the uncertainty, the floating currencies and the kind of inhibitions to trade that I mentioned earlier, especially in the smaller countries. This is not a very happy prospect. Indeed, it is a bleak prospect; but it is a realistic assessment of what is ahead of us. To the extent that the amendment of the agreement moves even a short way towards the goal we wish to achieve, it is welcome. However, I have been at some pains to stress that we should not think in any way that it cures the problems with which we have had to live in recent years because of the breakdown in the international monetary system.

I am convinced that some unit of account is necessary. This would be controlled internationally so that the amount of money available would be matched reasonably to world trade and expansion, an expansion which would not be dependent on national Governments, for whom the temptation is to expand the supply of money as an easy way out rather than having to cut their economic cloth according to the measure of their country's economic performance. A continuation of that role by national Governments means international inflation. We must live with that unpleasant prospect but we must recognise that it is the prospect ahead of us for some time.

The Minister mentioned that provision is made in the Bill for the establishment of a new organ of the IMF, a council that will have decision-making powers as distinct from the existing ad hoc interim body which is advisory. I will invite the Minister, when replying, to elaborate a little on this, particularly on Ireland's role in relation to that council. I assume that we will be members of it, even on a rotating basis, although it may be that we will be represented on it by one of the countries with which we are grouped in the IMF, possibly Canada.

There is one matter that arises when one considers any question of exchange rates. I refer to what might be described as the old chestnut of breaking the link with sterling. I have spoken here before on this topic and I have no wish to speak at great length about it now but I could not sit down during discussion of a Bill dealing with exchange rates without making some reference to it.

I should like to say first that perhaps too few people realise that in the past —I am not sure of when but it was more than 100 years ago—we broke the link with sterling. Apart from the kind of parity we have now we had one situation of having no link whatsoever with sterling and there was another situation in which we had a link with sterling but in which there was no parity. I think the situation was then that 13 Irish £'s equalled £12 sterling so that we have had some experience of both situations. I know that the economic conditions existing then are not comparable to the present situation. Nevertheless, there are some lessons for us in respect of what happened then. It is clear, for instance, that breaking the link with sterling is not the answer to all our problems. The real danger in urging such a break is that it represents the soft option. When people find the going difficult it is natural that they seek the easy way out but a break in the link with sterling is not the easy way in the situation we are talking of. Perhaps it is something that we could consider in due course. I am convinced that it would be in the long-term interest of our economy to break our link with sterling but those who suggest that it should be done now are grossly mistaken.

A country's exchange rate is related ultimately to its economic strength or weakness. There are technical factors that will move the pendulum up or down but basically the determining factor is a country's economic strength. No country, even the strongest in the world, can fix an exchange rate for its own currency and make it stick. It will stick only if it is related to the country's economic strength and is so recognised by the other countries with which it deals.

It is difficult to assess the situation so far as we are concerned but I am convinced that if we were to break the link with sterling now and to let the Irish £ find its own level on the international market, it would sink below sterling. That may be unpleasant, but it is true. Most people who advocate breaking the link with sterling now think in terms of the Irish £ being valued higher than sterling, but that would not be the case. Our economic strength is not such that that would happen. The reality is that, being such a small country with such a relatively insignificant currency, in practice if we were to break the link with sterling we would have to link with some other basket of currencies. Most likely what we would try to do would be to participate in the Snake in the EEC.

The great advantage that people see in breaking the link with sterling is that it would reduce our inflation because as long as we are tied to sterling on a par basis and as long as inflation is raging in Britain we cannot get rid of inflation here. That proposition is true. But too many people seem to think that there the story ends and that if we break the link with sterling we avoid British inflation and, consequently, everything is all right. However, that thinking ignores the extent to which we are generating inflation at home. At this stage it is not my wish to become involved in a denunciation of the Government's economic policies which I believe are contributing substantially to our home-generated inflation. I am simply recording the fact that I believe that to be so. But, in fairness, not only the Government but all of us as a people are contributing substantially to home-generated inflation.

I believe the significant thing about most people who advocate breaking the link with sterling now is that they do not seem to understand that to break the link with sterling and to avoid a catastrophic drop in the value of the Irish £ would entail first, our linking probably with the Snake within the EEC but, perhaps more important, would entail an economic discipline, a control on expenditure, on the income of everybody in the country that we have not known, that the great majority of the advocates of breaking the link with sterling would run miles from. They are mostly the people who have consistently advocated a form of economic policy by whichever Government is in power which inevitably has led to inflation, a form which they like to think of as expansionist. Expansion is all right within reason, but expansion which is not based on real growth is directly inflationary. One of the people concerned, an outstanding advocate of breaking the link with sterling, is a Member of this House. He will probably contribute to this debate. I have spoken about him before and so I am not speaking behind his back in that sense. I believe he would be one of the first to object to the economic consequences of breaking the link with sterling at this time, to the kind of restraint that would have to be imposed by whatever Government are in power on incomes and imports in order to preserve our balance of payment situation and the standard of living we could have would drop very quickly in the immediate short-term.

I do not say that in the long-term to do this we would not end up better off than if we do not. We probably would, but I say that it is unreal politically to imagine that our people are ready to accept that kind of hairshirt discipline for the sake of breaking the link with sterling in the hope of long-term gains. It is my belief that we should break the link with sterling in the longer term, that it will be to our advantage, but that before we contemplate doing so we must first get our economy into order, get it on a strong basis so that it will be able to stand on its own feet and enable us to take part in the European Snake obligations and keep our currency within certain narrow limits in relation to the other currencies of the members of the Snake in the EEC. To exercise that discipline means that we must ensure that our economy, our basic strength, is such that we will be able to keep within the Snake because failure to do so, if we have broken the link with sterling, will mean a run on our external assets with a consequential clampdown on imports and consequential loss of thousands of jobs and lowering of our standard of living. The reality is that if we are to contemplate breaking the link with sterling we must first put our own house in order. I hope that in due course we will be able to do that and that in due course we will break the link with sterling. But I repudiate as strongly as I can any suggestion that breaking the link with sterling at this time will ease our problems and will be an easy way out of the economic difficulties we face. It is not; in fact it would create enormous problems with which I doubt if we could cope at this time.

I know that the Minister for Finance on a few occasions has expressed a somewhat similar view, not in the terms in which I am expressing it, but he has come to the same conclusion. It is understandable perhaps that he would not express the view in the terms in which I express it, but he has reached the same conclusion. The facts of the situation are so obvious that there is an onus on anybody, particularly in this House, who advocates an immediate breaking of the link with sterling or a breaking of that link in the very near future, to face up to the difficulties involved and tell us how he or she thinks they can be coped with, and not to dwell on the long-term, rosy prospects which could come from this—which I admit—but which are only possible if we are prepared to take the short-term consequences which could be catastrophic.

For that reason I feel that if any discussion on this topic is to be useful it must face up to those difficulties and must recognise them and acknowledge that a way must be found of coping with them. In the absence of facing up to them it is unrealistic and to some extent dishonest to advocate breaking the link with sterling at this time.

I believe that this agreement, the subject matter of this Bill, is a small step on a long road ahead of us and we should not be under any illusion that it is doing anything revolutionary towards tackling the problems which face the international monetary system and face us as members of the IMF. But to the extent that it is even a small step on that road, I welcome it and support the Bill.

I believe I have only about a half-minute. This agreement that has now been reached in principle between the members of the IMF could be described as the broken Bretton Woods Agreement because the original Bretton Woods Agreement is virtually in tatters. It is not surprising that Deputy Colley touched on some of the matters which the Minister for Justice, when speaking on behalf of the Minister for Finance, in opening this debate mentioned which gave rise to the difficulties. The Bretton Woods system was born in 1946 and was actually stillborn but with the emergence of the IMF it came into some sort of active existence about January, 1959.

Debate adjourned.

Could the Parliamentary Secretary give an indication as to when this debate will be resumed?

As soon as possible after the recess.

The Dáil adjourned at 5 p.m. until 2.30 p.m. on Tuesday, 19th April, 1977.

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