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Dáil Éireann debate -
Wednesday, 14 Dec 1977

Vol. 302 No. 9

Adjournment of Dáil: Motion (Resumed).

Debate resumed on the following motion:
That the Dáil at its rising this week do adjourn for the Christmas Recess.
—(The Taoiseach.)

I heard some of Deputy Boland's concluding remarks. I noted with interest yet again the extent to which the Opposition are forced to refer to the manifesto which we published before the election and which forms the basis of our policy. I emphasise that point because I want to make it clear that we had not seen any alternative policy proposals from the Opposition parties in the areas not only to which Deputy Boland referred but to many other areas which are presumably of considerable importance to our people.

May I, for his benefit, touch on some of the points he raised towards the end of his speech? He was worried about the social welfare estimate and how many would benefit from the reduction in the stamp of £1 per week. That estimate which we prepared in the summer was the best estimate available on the basis of the then information. It was 400,000 in round numbers and I make no apology for it. If the Deputy can produce a better estimate I would be glad to see it. If the Government of the day could have produced a better one I am sure they would have, since a fair amount of time and energy after the publication of that manifesto was spent by the Coalition Parties trying to knock holes in various estimates, with a remarkable lack of success, let me emphasise.

I have just proved that the Minister was wrong.

No, the Deputy did not.

Would the Minister not agree that the figure of 400,000 was wrong?

No, I would not.

Is it right?

Deputy Boland may not interrupt the Minister.

I said it was the best estimate we could prepare at the time. I am satisfied that had the Government of the day been in a position to refute that estimate, I presume they would have tried, since they tried to refute many of the other estimates put forward in that manifesto. I can only assume therefore that it was a reasonable estimate at the time. The fact that later in the year there is a reference to a smaller number falling into that category tells me what everybody knows, inside and outside this House, namely, that pay rates have been rising this year.

The Deputy made reference to the likelihood that it would be a smaller number in 1978. Again I nodded my head because I assumed that pay rates would rise again in the new year. I do not see anything very extraordinary or earth-shattering in the emergence of these different figures. I repeat that the estimate was only an estimate. It was not by any means one of the most detailed or sophisticated with which I have been associated. The reason for that lay in the fact that there was an extraordinary absence of detailed statistical information on the numbers in the various income categories. If the Deputy was worried about that he had four and a half years to do something about it.

Crocodile tears have been shed about the developments on the rates issue. Some Deputies were concerned about the effects of that proposal which we had made clear before the election, which we said we would implement and which we are implementing. They said that the maximum increase of 11 per cent in the rate on commercial property was inadequate. Let me spell out the basis on which that increase was calculated.

We estimated that an increase of 14 per cent would be an adequate improvement on the rateable income to local authorities from residential property, made up of an estimate of an inflation target of 7 per cent for next year coupled with a real growth rate of 7 per cent in the economy. I am sure any reasonable neutral observer will accept that that provides for an expansion in the level of local authority spending in line with what the economy could afford. If somebody wants to make a case that local authorities should be permitted to expand their spending at a faster rate than is feasible for the rest of us, then by all means let us have the case made, let it be debated on its merits and let us arrive at some conclusions. In the meantime let us stick with the policy we have enunciated, which provides for a quite substantial improvement in the volume of spending of local authorities next year.

I will take the Minister up on that.

If you take the line of 14 per cent approach to residential property, you then ask, what is the appropriate rate of increase for commercial property which is still subject to rates. The available information sceems to suggest that there was a growth of about 3 per cent in the volume of commercial property subject to rates. That volume growth of 3 per cent allied to an 11 per cent increase in the poundage would again produce a 14 per cent rise in the revenue from that source to correspond and balance the 14 per cent increase accruing on the residential side.

The Deputy seems to think that that was a grossly inadequate increase and that in his area they wanted an extra £1 million. I have no doubt that not only local authorities but every Government Department, probably every State agency and I suspect most private citizens, can make a very good case as to the manner in which they could spend more money if only it were made available to them. What the Deputy is saying, if we are to take him seriously, is that his local authority would go ahead and authorise a higher level of spending of that amount. If the rates were still present, not only would they have struck a rate increase in the region of 14 per cent on the residential property coupled with at least an 11 per cent increase on business property, but they would have added an extra rate sufficient to raise the additional £1 million. I do not have the figures for the total spending in his area, but perhaps he could tell me how much of a rate in the £ is required to raise £1 million. If I do the sum crudely, the Deputy is saying that he is looking for an increase in the rate of at least £1.50 in the £. Would that be right?

In the normal way it would have been more this year.

Fine. I would like the Deputy to tell every ratepayer in the county of Dublin that he is unhappy with the Fianna Fáil Government because they have abolished the rates and that in the absence of that abolition of rates he would have endorsed an increase in the rates of more than £1.50 in the £.

What I am saying is that there are some services that will have to be cut back or that will not be provided. If the Government have to pay a large share, they should be allowed to exercise some control. They ought to indicate what services——

The Minister must make his own speech. His time is limited.

I was trying to help the Minister.

He does not need any help.

That is debatable.

As far as the Chair is concerned he would not want the Deputy to help the Minister. He should make his own speech.

The Deputy ought to tell all the ratepayers he is advocating that kind of an increase.

The second point he appeared to be implying is that if the Government put up the money they should have a say in the areas in which it is to be spent. My answer to that is no. I am surprised to hear the Deputy saying that, because I understood one of the great concerns of his party was that this abolition of rates on residential property was going to strike a mortal blow at the autonomy and independence of local authorities. Yet, the Deputy is suggesting that we should interfere with the autonomy and independence of the authorities. We are not doing that. We are saying "here is a formula under which we calculate the amount of money you get" and I put forward the reasons why I think it is a fair and reasonable allocation of money. We let the responsible local authorities decide their priorities and work out the manner in which they want to make use of the funds available to them. Surely that is the approach the Deputy would want to suggest for any responsible spending agency, whether it is a local authority, a Government Department or a private household?

If the Deputy has different theories, in the interest of proceeding with this debate, I do not want him to put them forward now. I suggest he put them forward later and they will be examined. I would be very interested to see such an alternative. In the meantime I suggest that there is not such an alternative viewpoint. It does not appear to be advocated by the Deputy's party. I suggest he is attempting to indulge in a little bit of local point scoring about which he would be best advised to forget.

On the question of indulging in local point scoring, this morning Deputy P. Barry saw fit to refer to me at one stage and to some remarks he claims I made. I did not hear all that he said but I got the substance of it. He accused me of making contradictory claims about the merits of a proposed 5 per cent pay increase coupled with tax cuts as suggested by the Government and of putting forward examples that could be refuted by a first-year economic student. Quite apart from the fact that the Deputy referred to the wrong debate, the only remarks I made to the House were at Question Time. I checked the Official Report and I see that I never got to the point where I gave any examples because there were what is usually referred to as "interruptions". I never finished the examples because people on the Opposition side expressed surprise, concern or whatever other terms are appropriate when they discovered I was saying that the tax cuts in the form of abolition of rates and car tax on vehicles up to 16 h.p. formed part of the package of tax cuts that Fianna Fáil put forward. I am happy to say that in one respect Deputy Barry put the record right this morning because at least he admitted it was in our manifesto and, therefore, that there was nothing new about it.

With regard to confusion in the examples I gave, I am not aware of any such confusion. On different occasions outside the House I gave various examples of the combined effect of a 5 per cent pay rise and various tax cuts, whether income tax reductions, a reduction in the social welfare stamp for lower paid workers or the effect of abolition of rates and car tax. If anybody wants to put forward alternative examples or thinks they are confusing, I would be delighted to see the evidence. In the meantime, just to set the record straight, there were no contradictory examples from me because I never gave them in the House, and certainly I did not give any examples in the debate referred to by the Deputy. Therefore, there is no case to be answered by any economic student that the examples were correct or incorrect.

Deputy Barry gave a peculiar interpretation of economic policy over the past 18 months. He said that in regard to the speech made by the Taoiseach when opening this debate when referring to the development of the economy this year, he could have made a similar speech. He went on to say this was because of the virtuous policies pursued by the Coalition during the last year of their term of office. What were those virtuous policies? Deputy Barry made some vague remarks about the effects of sterling and its associated impact on the economy in 1976. He was talking about the initial forecasts for 1976 being rather pessimistic and the out-turn proving much better. Why did it prove better? It was due to the disastrous fall in sterling. This meant that Irish products, in common with British products, became cheaper on the international markets and both Britain and ourselves benefited in that sense from an export boom in the second part of 1976. This could not have been predicted by any reasonable person at the beginning of that year and no reasonable person would want to predict it. We were facing a calamitous decline in the external value of our currency and some of the adverse consequences of that decline were still with us this year. That gratuitous improvement in our exports in 1976 was not something for which Deputy Barry or any Government could make a claim. It was entirely outside their control and it was a direction of policy movement that we would never have advocated as a Government, that we should look forward to a policy of excessive inflation leading to a severe fall in the external value of our currency as the basis for temporary improvements in the level of our exports output.

We then come to 1977. Deputy Barry told us that everything was marvellous now because the Coalition had spent £100 million in the budget this year in putting the economy on the right track. That was an interesting revelation. Those of us with long memories will recall the origin of the Coalition's budgetary policy of 1977. I recall in September, 1976, when after a very long gestation period, after much agonising and to-ing and fro-ing and changing of colours, what had originally been proposed as a White Paper eventually emerged as a Green Paper on the economy. Prior to that we had published our first version of what might now be called our manifesto. We dealt specifically with some economic proposals. As a result of publishing that document the Government had to move back the publication date for their Green Paper and had to hastily rewrite some of its contents. There was an abrupt change of policy on the part of the Coalition so that what had up to then been all gloom and doom suddenly enabled the Minister for Finance to depart to the Philippines and the Minister for Labour to announce a £50 million package for job creation. In the course of the following two months that £50 million was increased to £100 million in respect of job creation and tax cuts which were associated with the budget this year. We duly acknowledged the paternity of that package when we referred to the budget this year. Our criticism then was that although it was on the right lines it was too little and too late.

We were acting as the Government's agents.

But not on an adequate scale.

What is the Government going to do? Why is the Minister going back on all of this? He is fighting the last election again.

That is what the Opposition are doing. They are trying the usual trick of rewriting—

When will the Government do something?

What has happened since they took office?

The Minister is in possession and he should be allowed to speak without interruption.

The Deputies opposite should keep quiet and allow me to make my own speech. In order to set the record right, the Coalition were acting as our agents but on an inadequate scale. We endorsed the action they took at the beginning of the year but we said it was not sufficient. In our manifesto we put forward an expanded form of the action which we considered sufficient and which we have been implementing since we came to office.

We are not backing away from any of the proposals in the manifesto. We identified the series of measures which we said we would take in the first phase of government and we are taking those actions, whether it be to abolish rates on houses, to abolish car tax, to reduce the social welfare stamp or action to set about job creation. There has been a Cabinet sub-committee dealing with that matter. We started work immediately after the formation of the Government in July and we have been sanctioning specific proposals from time to time. They all add up to achieving our target of 5,000 jobs by the end of this year which is what we promised and I see no reason why we should not continue to be on target for the total of 20,000 by mid-summer next year. Therefore, the House can rest assured on that point also.

Would the Minister give us details now?

I do not see why it is necessary for me to go into detail this evening——

Afterwards.

Yes, certainly, the Deputy can rest assured he will get the details. The Minister for Finance, in reply to a question a few weeks ago, gave details of the job creation proposals up to that point which effectively covered the period up to the end of this year. We shall indeed publish further statistics for 1978 as they arise.

So much for the background of these measures. Where do we go from here? The point I would make about the manifesto is that it laid the foundations for the policy we would pursue in office.

We spelled out the initial measures to be taken. Those measures are being taken. The concern expressed by some Opposition speakers that we have not yet implemented various parts of the manifesto was rather touching but, I would imagine, hyprocritical because we have succeeded in doing more in five months than they managed in their four years in quite a few areas. I would point out that the normal expectation of a Government's term of office is four years or thereabouts. I would expect there is quite a deal of time to deal with many other items that call for legislation and so on in order to implement the manifesto. One would need to be incredibly naive to expect that any government could implement a full policy programme in the limited space of a few months.

The manifesto, then, having created the opening phase and set the policy direction for tackling the important issues of unemployment, inflation and so on, where do we go from here? As I have already informed the House, I envisaged that we will publish a White Paper within the next few weeks setting out the general terms of economic development as we envisage them in the next three years, also indicating the main policy issues and areas to be tackled during that period. That will be followed up by a more detailed discussion document—let us call it a Green Paper—sometime in the New Year, say, in the spring. That will enable us to carry out detailed consultations with various interested groups and prepare a more elaborate plan for completion by the autumn of next year. I regard that as a reasonable timetable. I emphasise the link between it and the manifesto because I regard the manifesto as having supplied already a sufficient framework policy to carry us through at least the first year of our term of office. There-fore, the House may rest assured that there will indeed be a sufficient updating and elaboration of policy for the later years of our term.

The Minister has approximately four minutes left.

There are quite a few areas which call to be tackled quite apart from the actual articulation of policy and so on that have repercussions for the reform of the Civil Service and of Government itself. Some of those reforms have occurred already, such as the creation of a new Department for which I am responsible, the appointment of additional Ministers of State and, in the case of the Civil Service, the creation of planning units which will be implemented in all of the major Departments over the coming year. There are other areas which still call for reform and which would be worthy of much longer discussion. I should not like to go firm on any proposals at present. But since there was reference this morning on the Appropriations Bill to the manner in which this House deals with public expenditure, its regulation and control, perhaps I might venture a suggestion in that area: I do not believe the time of this House is best spent on what I would call the traditional accounting or book-keeping function of seeing that every last £ is spent under the precise subhead for which it was originally voted and that, provided there are proper receipts and the books add up, all is well. I believe it far more important that this House concern itself with policy matters, with the manner in which money is spent, with the types of purposes for which it is sought, and then to concern itself with the effectiveness of the programmes on which the money is expended. Therefore, concern should not be for the traditional accounting or book-keeping approach; it should be much more inquiring into the direction of policies on public spending and satisfying itself, as a House, that it has sufficient mechanisms and opportunities for exploring the nature of spending policies, for reviewing the degree of success or failure attending any series of programmes. And, let us be realistic—seeing that we are dealing with human nature, imperfect knowledge and so on—no government is ever going to pretend that everything will function perfectly. Therefore there will always be a need for continuing review and re-examination of policies to ensure that the taxpayers indeed get the best value for the money this House votes on their behalf. In that direction I would suggest that far more attention be given to debating the spending policies and programmes, for the House giving itself time to debate programmes before they are so far advanced that it is too late to halt any project. Very often one finds oneself in a situation in which it would be even more wasteful to abandon an effort even though had one known beforehand one might have preferred an alternative course of action.

One of the improvements we can bring about is in this direction of enabling the House to have more opportunities for considering the longer-run policy options open to it and the longer-run implications for our people of choosing one or other course of action. I know this is not the traditional approach of Parliament. I realise it is not often the traditional stuff of party politics because, of course, if one concerns oneself with long-run issues then one's time horizon is not bounded by the date of the next election. I am sure the House will agree that this year the people of Ireland showed their willingness to break away from excessive concern with the past. My final word to the Opposition might be to suggest that if they really are genuine about making contributions in this area they would be far better advised to go away, do some work on preparing their policy position, debate the course of action we ought to pursue in the future rather than engage in pointless, fruitless efforts to rewrite history and pretend that all was well when all was clearly not well, and all is clearly still not well with the economy. But at least we can now argue that things are beginning to improve and it is our intention that they will go on improving in the years ahead.

Deputy Horgan rose.

Would Deputy Horgan please move the adjournment?

Debate adjourned.
The Dáil adjourned at 8.30 p.m. until 10.30 a.m., Thursday, 15th December, 1977.
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