It is customary at this stage of a Government's lifetime that we should talk about the end of the honeymoon of the Government. I am very much afraid that the present Government's honeymoon is following a pattern which is all too evident in many Irish honeymoons. There have been a few splendid nights, the unfortunate bride is now chewing her nails in the hotel bedroom while her husband is out gallivanting around the town drinking all the money he had saved for the fare home from Salthill. This is the situation in which the present Government find themselves. The truth of this situation will be borne in on the Irish people before long. Unluckily, the Irish Constitution, although it does not provide for divorce of the civil kind, provides divorce of the political kind in general elections. I have no doubt that a political divorce will be arranged in due course.
During yesterday's debate speakers from the other side chided the Opposition for being naïve and for talking as if we expected the Government's entire programme to be implemented within six months and they chided us for not producing policies of our own. I can guarantee that my party in the period between now and the next general election will produce policies which will command electoral support. It might be remembered that it was not until comparatively lately in the lifetime of the last Dáil that the present Government produced anything that might remotely be called a policy. The Government have been chiding us for our alleged lack of policies. If the Government ask us where are our policies, can we not ask them where their Ministers are? It is extraordinary that in a debate of this kind, which is effectively a motion of confidence in the Government, we had to date, apart from the Taoiseach, only the Minister for Foreign Affairs and the Minister for Economic Planning and Development and they could not be described as the most weighty members of the Government. Where are the others? I suspect that they are locked in mortal combat upstairs over a rapidly evaporating financial cake as they seek to get a larger slice for themselves in an attempt to honour a small proportion of their election promises.
The Taoiseach in opening this debate surprisingly, and unlike many other members of his party, did not blame the present level of unemployment on the previous Government. The Taoiseach blamed it in part on the recession, for which the previous Government was not by any means responsible as it was of an international and uncontrollable dimension, and he blamed it in part on the distribution of our population. That problem could not be laid at the door of the previous Government either. When talking about the need to provide jobs the Taoiseach said that the stability of society is at stake. There are two ways of looking at the unemployment crisis. One can look at it in the pessimistic way in which the Taoiseach looks at it: that we must provide jobs because if we do not society will tear itself to pieces. This is an unworthy and a negative way to look at it. We need to provide jobs not because society will tear itself to pieces, if we do not, but because it is everybody's right to have a job and because the task of providing jobs for everybody is a challenge which any Government should be proud and honoured to face up to.
On the question of employment generally there has already been a substantial failure on the part of the Government to meet the simplest, most basic and most factual of the commitments that they made in their manifesto, a commitment to reduce the level of unemployment by 5,000 by the end of 1977. It was not a commitment towards 5,000 new jobs; it was a commitment to reduce the level of unemployment by 5,000. On the best available figures the level of unemployment has been reduced since the Government came into office by something over 2,300 jobs, and many of those jobs, it is now evident, were created as a result of budgetary strategy adopted by the last Government and by the general betterment in the economy which had partly national and partly international dimensions. To show how few of those 2,300 jobs the Government can claim credit for let us look at one simple figure. A week after the Government came into office the unemployment figures were reduced by 500. Where did these 500 come from? They were not all Fianna Fáil TDs or Ministers, although it may have appeared like that at the time. This reduction in the unemployment figure occurred not because the Government were in office or because the identity of the persons sitting in the State cars had suddenly changed, but because the economy was heading that way. It has been heading that way ever since, as it was before the general election.
When we look at the longer-term figures in the manifesto and tot them all up—and these again are figures for reducing unemployment, not the creation of new jobs—we realise that the Government have undertaken to reduce unemployment by a grand total of something like 80,000 by 1980. Taking as our base date the date on which the Government came into office we realise that if the Government are to honour that commitment they will have to reduce unemployment to a net figure of 30,000. The lowest that unemployment has ever been in the history of this State and under several extended periods of Fianna Fáil Government has been 60,000. It has been twice the figure to which they propose to reduce it now in less than four years. With Deputy Cluskey I wish them well, but I doubt very much their ability and competence to deliver, not just because the job is difficult in itself—it would be as difficult for us as it is for them—but because their approach to the question of job creation or unemployment cannot give any reason for optimism on this scale. This is not just optimism, it is pie in the sky. The only possible basis on which they could reach that figure would be to accept the figure of 160,000 unemployed as given in their manifesto, but they are precluded from using any figure because the Minister for Economic Planning and Development has already gone on record in this House as saying in answer to a question from Deputy M. O'Leary, "I see no reason to change the basis on which the unemployment statistics are calculated".
It would appear that the Government are still popular. A recent survey carried out and published by RTE indicated that the Taoiseach was extremely popular and that the Government as a whole were also popular, but when you examine the fine print of that you will see that in some areas things are not going as they should be. People approve far more of the Taoiseach than they do of the Government and even now less than half of the people polled think of the Government as doing well in any single key area. In two key areas, the provision of jobs for young people and industrial relations, for reasons which I do not need to go into here, more people think the Government are doing badly than think they are doing well. The Taoiseach is more popular than the individual Members of the Government. I wonder if the Taoiseach personal popularity in some sense cloaks the strong sense of dissatisfaction with their performance in key areas. The danger here is that ultimately we are not governed by referendum or by democracy but by general election, and the Taoiseach ability to act as an asset to his part is not indefinite. He is mortal like a men, and his party cannot rely indefinitely on whatever pulling power he may have to cement them together through the difficult years that lie ahead. The Taoiseach would not indefinitely be a lifebelt for a disorganised and incompetent administration.
Referring again to jobs and job creation I would like to refer to another portion of the Taoiseach speech when he put on record a fundamental aspect of Fianna Fáil policy.
He talked about a climate for growth when he said, and I quote:
The second part of our strategy involves the creation of conditions in which the private sector will take over as the primary agent of growth and generate additional sustainable employment.
This is precisely what Fianna Fáil see as being a certain amount of investment in the service industries, a lot of pump priming to private industry. As a member of this party I must point out my belief that private industry has failed in the past and will fail again in the future if it is relied on virtually solely as the agency which will generate employment. We need a balance between public investment and private investment. It is our contention that that balance has never been sufficiently directed in favour of the public sector.
Getting back to the Taoiseach's speech, unless I have misread it I did not see any notable contribution on the subject of the famous consortium, and we are entitled to ask the question has this white elephant gone the way of its predecessors to the graveyard in the sky? Again on the question of industrial development we are entitled to ask the Government, on the Bula question, what are they going to do about it? The State have 49 per cent in Bula and 49 per cent in Tara. It may be argued that that is substantial. We may have 49 per cent of these enterprises, but are the Government going to give it back to private industry? It was stated in the debate on Bula that if the Government had been in power at the time State equity participation would not have been achieved. We must have a clear statement from the Government on their industrial strategy in areas like this.
I should now like to turn to the more specific area which is my personal responsibility on these benches, the area of education. Looking at what has happened since the general election, I sometimes ask myself whether the broad shoulders of the Minister for Education are being made to bear a disproportionate share of the burden of fulfilling the Fianna Fáil election promises. In the Taoiseach's speech, the education area was virtually the only area to which he referred with any confidence as an area in which new jobs have been created by the reduction of the pupil-teacher ratio in secondary schools and in vocational schools. It is true that a certain number of jobs have been created by the introduction of a new scheme for graduate teachers in primary education. Even here the Taoiseach over-states the case. In his speech he gave a figure of 400 graduate teachers. The actual figure which was available last week and must have been available to him is 320.
Even though these 320 people are being paid a salary as of now, the point is that they are only in training. They will have to complete their training satisfactorily before they go into the schools to start teaching. Remember there are only 320 of them. One of the great claims by the Government when they came into office was that there would be 600 of them. Through successive episodes of mismanagement and hesitation, this figure has been reduced to approximately half of what the Government originally said it would be.
On the question of higher education there has been some movement. The Minister for Education has raised the higher education grant to a maximum total of £500. This may take the edge off the protests by the students, the parents and the university authorities, but it does not by any means go far enough to meet the real needs of the situation. The real needs of the situation are only partly the cash needs of the individual students. They are partly also related to the eligibility criteria on which the allocation of grants is made.
In so far as the cash needs for students are concerned, the Government are still saying they are expecting students to live on £7 a week. That is an improvement, but it is not enough. Even if it is an improvement, it is a cheap improvement because, by failing to raise the eligibility limits, the eligibility criteria for access to these grants, the Government are making a gesture which is very much larger in appearance than it is in reality. You could raise the grants to £1,000 and you would not exactly save money but you would not have to spend very much more than if you refused to raise the eligibility limits. In a time of rising money incomes more and more people will find themselves outside these limits.
It is true, as the Minister for Education said when he made this announcement, that you cannot raise the eligibility limits and criteria in the middle of an academic year. The Government have been in office since before the beginning of the academic year. They could have taken a decision on raising eligibility limits well before the last date student applications for grants are made sometime in September, I believe. I suspect the delay on this issue until the last sitting week of the Dáil in this session is precisely related to that fact. The Minister and the Government had to wait until the closing date for applications had passed so that they could raise the amount of money for the grants, a cheap enough gesture if you are not going to make any more people eligible to avail of them and simultaneously say you cannot do anything about eligibility criteria because we are now in the middle of an academic year.
On this whole topic I should like to refresh the memory of the House with a reference to a speech made by the Taoiseach, one of his better speeches in Opposition, when he addressed a meeting of the Maynooth Historical Society at Maynooth College on Thursday, 3rd March, 1977. He said that the present level of student grants, even allowing for the projected increase of 16.7 per cent next October—that was the increase announced by Deputy Barry—does not allow for inflation since the last realistic review. He said his party promised such a realistic review so that young students will not have to bear a disproportionate degree of hardship. He said that even more important was an immediate review of ceiling levels for the allocation of student grants. He said the present levels were totally unrealistic and must be reviewed in line with a very severe inflation rate.
The Taoiseach established in that speech a clear order of priorities. The level of grants is important but even more important is the ceiling level. What the Government have done is to tackle to some extent only the less important of these two areas and to leave the more important area, because it is the more expensive one, to another time. Whatever about the reference to inflation—and here as in so many other things there is the appearance of commitment without the substance—in order to avoid the kind of scenes we have had over the past few months, the very minimum the Government can and should do is to institute, in co-operation with the Union of Students in Ireland and the higher education authorities, an annual review mechanism so that studies are not disrupted, the Minister's time is not unnecessarily wasted and grants are raised in an appropriate way.
I should now like to turn to the general question of the Government's incomes policy and specifically to the effect upon incomes of some of the steps promised in their manifesto and which they have now brought into operation. The first of these is the question of rates, which we were told in the manifesto, and since, is linked directly to the Government's plea for a 5 per cent voluntary limit on income raises next year. It might be argued that there is little difference between Government and Opposition on the question of the rates, but that is not necessarily the case.
It is true that there is a difference of timing. What is not so clear is that there might not have been other differences in the implementation of the scheme. The Government have taken off the rates on all domestic dwellings. There is a very good case—and had we been in Government I would have been making this case very strongly— for confining that concession to owner-occupied premises. The net effect of giving a rates waiver to many premises which are let out in flats is to provide a cash bonus to the property owner, not the tenant. The more properties such a property owner has, the more he will benefit from this financial concession.
The latest available figure for the number of householders occupying rented accommodation, according to a Parliamentary Question answered by the Minister for the Environment on 13th December, other than local authority dwellings, is 96,884 as set out in the 1971 census. I doubt that the figure has gone down. It has probably gone up. We are talking, in other words, about 100,000 households, and goodness knows how many people that comprises the huge majority of whom, I suspect, will not benefit from the Government's policy on rates.
Incidentally we are also talking about the poorest of the poor, the people who benefit from a total or a partial waiver of rates. In 1976, again according to a Parliamentary reply from the Minister for the Environment on Thursday, 1st December, 17,875 people were entitled to partial waivers of rates and 24,000 people to total waiver of rates. I do not know what the practice is in local authorities other than the Dublin County Council, but I suspect that everywhere in the country the means test adopted to decide whether somebody is entitled to a waiver of rates is very severe and you have to be practically destitute before you will get a concession of this kind. These are the people who will not get any benefit from the concession announced by the Government.
Let us look at the question of car tax. In reply to a question on the 6th December, 1977, the Minister for the Environment said that there are approximately 750,000 cars in the country, of which approximately 540,000 were 16 hp or less. Of these 750,000 cars, only two-thirds were in the private car category. If we assume that the same proportions exist for cars under 16 hp we will see that 30 per cent of the Government's concession on car tax is a direct subsidy to industry because these are company cars. We will also recollect that the pattern of car ownership in this country is very sharply distinguished between the west and the east. Car ownership in Dublin is practically double what it is in Mayo. This is a concession which gives more to the people who have more.
The same is true of the Government's income tax concessions. At the moment on the present level of income allowable against tax, a man with a wife and two children can earn about £1,700 before becoming liable to tax. Very large numbers of people are not earning very much more. According to a Parliamentary Question on the 24th November, there were 500,000 incomes, about two-thirds of the total, of less than £2,500 a year. These people are paying tax of maybe £20 a year. They will include probably all the people who are not paying rates. They will include probably a substantial proportion of the people who do not have cars. Their net benefit from the Government's incomes policy will be of the order of 45 pence per week. Not only is their net benefit so low, but there is a very distinct chance that any raise which puts them over the £50 a week limit will actually leave them worse off. They will now lose in terms of take home pay because the rise will put them over the £50 level and they will have to pay another £1.87 in social welfare contributions.
The Government are creating a new and bitter poverty trap into which inevitably an increasing number of people will fall. During the period of the last Government there was hostility in Opposition on behalf of the lower paid to very necessary increases in social welfare payments because they felt their standard of living was threatened and that they were personally subsidising these increases. This was not and never should be the case. The kind of legacy that it left is going to pale into insignificance beside the emotions that will be experienced by people who find that now because they get a raise they will have less money to take home. There will be substantial numbers of people in that category.
When we look at the Government's incomes policy overall, and especially those of us who are doing well out of it, we should ask ourselves: if I am doing well out of it, who is doing badly? This is the question legislators should be asking themselves and posing to the electorate. I believe firmly that the main parameters of the Government's incomes policy are such as to ensure that the people who are doing well out of it will not have to find the cash in another way. Those who are doing badly are precisely those who have the least strength to bear the burden. This is, and always has been, the hallmark of Fianna Fáil's economic policy.