asked the Taoiseach if he is satisfied with the analysis provided by the Central Statistics Office in relation to the discrepancy regarding the census figures between 1971 and 1979 and if there has been a net immigration to this State of 107,000 people in those years.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Census Figures.
13.
I am satisfied that there is no discrepancy attaching to the Census of Population figures for 1971 and 1979. What happened was that the pre-census estimates of population prepared on an on-going basis for 1972 to 1978 were too low because the level of net immigration in that period was underestimated. The estimating process being used had given reasonably satisfactory results in the immediately preceding intercensal periods which were characterised by substantial net outward movement. The change to a net inward movement in more recent years has affected the suitability of the method of estimation but this development could not be determined until a further census had been taken. The 1972-78 estimates have now been revised in the light of the 1979 Census results.
The actual population increase between 1971 and 1979 was 387,000. In the same period the natural increase, births less deaths, was 280,000. The difference of 107,000 measures the extent of net immigration, excess of inward over outward migration, in the eight year period.
I appreciate the Minister of State's reply, but in view of this enormous discrepancy from what had previously been the accepted method of measuring inward and outward migration could he tell us if the Central Statistics Office now propose to change in any way their method of assessing such migration so that this kind of discrepancy, which I still question, does not occur in the next five years?
The short answer is yes. Having a census like the recent census gives the corroboration required. So far as future estimates of population are concerned, a number of relevant indicators will be utilised—numbers on the register of electors, number of children's allowances paid for children up to 15 years of age, natural increase and net passenger movements. They will however continue to be estimates and will be subject to revision in the light of subsequent censuses.
Is the Minister of State in a position to give a breakdown over the eight or nine year period of the actual annual rate of immigration which took place?
That is a separate question. The Deputy can hardly expect to get a reply.
That is a reasonable question and I am sure the Minister of State has that information in his brief.
That is a separate question and is not on the Order Paper.
If the Deputy puts down a separate question I will give him the information.
This is statistically relevant information. I do not wish to be argumentative with the Chair on my first day back, but if the information is available, perhaps the Minister of State would either put it on the record or inform the House.
The Central Statistics Office have already issued a press statement to that effect. I can read the figures for the Deputy at this stage or circulate them later. The Deputy will appreciate that part of the difficulty arose from the lack of a 1976 Census and the fact that there will be a further census in 1981, which means that the information will be particularly good on a census basis in the future. The figures for 1971 are 2.978 million; 1972, 3.024 million; 1973, 3.072 million; 1974, 3.123 million; 1975, 3.176 million; 1976, 3.226 million; 1977, 3.269 million; 1978, 3.311 million and 1979, 3.365 million. If the Deputy requires any further information, and puts down another question, I will get it for him.
Nothing that those estimates would indicate net immigration of the order of 70,000 during the previous National Coalition, could I ask the Minister if he could reconsider the question of the 1971 Census figures, noting the fact that at the time they were published there was discussion about their validity because the method by which the census was taken was not as effective as on other occasions. At the time economists took the view that the figures were understand and failure to revise them would lead to a distortion in all demographic data in respect of these intercensal periods. For these reasons, would the Minister of State suggest to the Central Statistics Office that they apply the new additional criteria to be used in the future retrospectively for the whole period 1966-79 with a view to seeing what revision of the 1971 figures would result?
I will take note of the points raised by the Deputy. The difficulty is that prior to that stage there was an opposite trend.
14.
asked the Taoiseach when the detailed result of the 1979 Census will be published.
The definitive final 1979 population figures will be contained in Volume I of the Census Report which it is anticipated will be published in January 1980. That volume will contain population figures for each district electoral division and ward and for each town with legally defined boundaries.
Will it also include data on conurbations and towns, including suburbs?
The data in virtually all respects will be similar to the previous Volume I booklet. There is a small limitation on figures in relation to towns but this is of a minor nature.
What kind of limitations? Do they relate to the issues I raised?
I would not think so.
Perhaps the Minister of State might inform me of them.
I will communicate with the Deputy.