asked the Minister for Finance if it is expected that the increase in consumer prices in the half year from mid-November 1979 to mid-May 1980 will be more than 11 per cent and if he will make a statement on the matter.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Consumer Prices Increase.
40.
The increase in consumer prices in the half year from mid-November 1979 to mid-May 1980 will not be known until mid-June when the official mid-May consumer price index will become available. Until this figure comes to hand, it would be premature to make a statement as requested by the Deputy.
Does the Minister accept that the figure for the quarter to mid-February was 3.8 per cent?
Yes.
Does he further accept that the expert present forecasts are that the figure from mid-February to mid-May will be over 7 per cent?
No. The Leader of the Fine Gael Party made a forecast—I am not sure if he gave the figures as an expert or as a Deputy—with which I totally disagre.
The Minister must have checked in his Department if there was any forecast for the quarter to mid-May. Is there a forecast in the Department?
As the Deputy is aware, economic forecasting here and elsewhere has become a very hazardous operation because of the impact of events that change rapidly. Forecasting here is not something which may turn out to be in line with reality.
Has the Minister a forecast for that quarter
Yes.
I suggest to the Minister that it indicates a figure of more than 7 per cent for that quarter.
No. I am not prepared to go into the question of forecasting or disclose what our forecast will be for that quarter or to the end of the year, at this stage.
The Minister is putting on the record of the House the fact that the forecast to mid-May is to be less than 7 per cent?
When the position at that time emerges we will discuss it. I am not putting any forecast on the record of the House and I have given my reasons for not doing so.
The Minister is not prepared to give to the House the information he has in his brief? I suggest that that figure will be more than 11 per cent.
Even for the purposes of my brief such figures are not given as reliable and absolute forecasts.
Why does the Minister find it difficult to forecast at this stage for the period up to mid-May or to the end of the year when his predecessor, and Deputy O'Donoghue, did not have any trouble this time last year forecasting 5 per cent to the end of 1979?
That is why they are not where the Minister is.
I have given my reasons.
We must move on to the next question. Deputy O'Keeffe has asked six supplementary questions and he should bear in mind that the Chair is not responsible for the answers given by Ministers.
For the information of the House I should like to state that within the last week I attended meetings of the Finance Ministers of the EEC and of the IMF and in each case the represented countries, individually and collectively, acknowledged that it was not possible to forecast the inflation rate over the next six or 12 months. If the collective wisdom of the House demands that we should be able to do what the international experts indicate we cannot do that is where the clash occurs between this House and those experts.
The reason is quite simple.
Does the Minister accept what was stated by his Leader who indicated what the inflation figure for the EEC would be?
The Deputy is now making a statement.
The Minister has told us that it is not possible to quote a figure and I wonder if he realises that his Leader has done so. Will the Chair permit me to make that point?
No. I am calling Deputy Cluskey for a final supplementary. The Deputy is continuing to make statements. There are many other questions on the Order Paper to be dealt with.
The Minister's Leader made a forecast for the whole of the EEC. The Minister is deliberately evading this question because he is well aware that the figure will be over 11 per cent.
Even accepting that the Minister would not be in a position to give a definite figure, clearly there is a figure in the Minister's brief which indicates the best possible information available to him from economists in his Department and anticipates what the rate of inflation will be. Surely the House is entitled to that information?
No, because it is not a figure on which anybody could place any confidence. It is a matter which is there to indicate what the trends are and if trends of this nature continue it may be a certain figure. When I am answering to the House, and through the House to the public, I am expected to be more definite.
Has the Minister any figure in his brief?
I have a range of figures in my brief covering three months, six months and 12 months and all those figures could turn out to be upset.
Therefore, the Minister is telling us that in regard to the figure that will be published in the near future he has no confidence in his own advisers?
The Deputy is making a statement.
I am not saying what Deputy Cluskey has alleged.
The Minister is prepared to sacrifice for small marginal political advantage.
The Deputy may convince himself with the conviction and vehemence that is the custom here but that does not make anything true. A statement by implication does not make fact. The Deputy can interpret what he likes.
I will not permit any further supplementaries and insist that we move on to the next question.