asked the Minister for Finance the amount of money paid externally in interest payments on the foreign debt of the Exchequer and semi-State bodies in each of the last four years; and the projected figure for 1981.
Ceisteanna — Questions. Oral Answers. - State Debt.
7.
The following is the information requested by the Deputy:
In 1977, £99 million; 1978, £131 million; 1979, £141 million; 1980, £240 million.
The figure for 1981 is estimated at £340 million based on current interest and exchange rates.
Is the Minister happy with those figures?
I have replied to the question put down by the Deputy. These payments, as the Deputy is well aware, are the interest payments by the Exchequer and by the semi-State bodies on borrowings. I have, many times, outlined this Government's policy on borrowings. There are other questions down on that subject, in case the Deputy is not so aware.
Surely I am within my rights, narrow though these may have become, in asking whether the Minister is happy with the trend in the amount of foreign borrowing and in interest payments which foreign borrowing implies.
These are related to foreign borrowings and these are payments on foreign borrowings.
Is the Minister happy with the trend or not?
There are questions coming up on that subject and the Deputy will then be at liberty to ask me all the questions he likes.
Is that a reason why I cannot pursue the Minister with a very simple question? Is the Minister satisfied or not satisfied with the trend disclosed by the figures which he has given to the House?
The trend relates to the borrowings.
The Deputy cannot keep repeating the question.
I am asking the simplest possible supplementary question and the Minister is ignoring me.
The Deputy cannot keep asking the same question over and over again. I am not responsible for the Minister's answers.
You can be glad of that, Sir.
8.
asked the Minister for Finance the estimated national debt including State, semi-State or other Government body or agency borrowing at the end of 1981, if he will express this figure as a percentage of our GNP; the estimated cost of servicing the national debt in 1981, if he will express this figure as a percentage of total tax revenue and as a percentage of our GNP; and the action the Government intend to take to reduce excessive borrowing.
National debt means the debt of the Exchequer and does not include the debt of the semi-State sector or other Government bodies. As I indicated in my reply to Parliamentary Question No. 24 by Deputy Bruton on 24 February, it is not possible to provide an estimate of the national debt in 1981 since it depends not just on amounts borrowed during the year, but on other factors including movements in exchange rates and the extent to which stocks are issued below their nominal value, which is the amount repayable on maturity and thus the figure used in computing the national debt. For much the same reasons it is not possible to provide an estimate of the debt of semi-State and other Government agencies.
The estimated cost of servicing the national debt in 1981 is £984 million. This represents 31 per cent of total tax revenue and 10 per cent of GNP.
The present level of borrowing is not considered by the Government to be excessive but rather as appropriate to the Government's economic policy. The Government's approach to borrowing was outlined in my Financial Statement in January. While the Government are committed to reducing the level of borrowing, especially borrowing for current purposes, the speed with which borrowing can be reduced must take account of fiscal, economic and social constraints.
If the Minister is able to give us an estimate of the cost of servicing the national debt in 1981, how is he not able to give us an estimate of what the national debt will be at the end of 1981?
I outlined for the Deputy the impossibility of providing an estimate of the specific national debt because it depends on a number of factors.
How on earth can the Minister tell the House what is going to be the cost of servicing a debt that he does not know the amount of?
The Deputy must appreciate that the figure that I am giving him has to be an estimate and no more than that. While I am prepared to give an estimate of the cost, I am not prepared to calculate the debt.
Will the Minister accept that I appreciate that all of these matters are estimates? But if the Minister is able to give an estimate of the cost of servicing a debt, surely he should be able to give an estimate of the debt?
He could not calculate the cost of servicing it in any other way.
There are basically three factors that affect the calculation of the national debt and I am prepared to give an estimate to the House, in good faith, of what we believe it will cost to service this debt. But I am not prepared to give something——
(Interruptions.)
Give the file to Deputy Lenihan and he will do the job.
Are the difficulties in relation to estimating the debt solely confined to making assumptions about the rate of interest and the exchange rates of foreign currencies, or do they extend to assessing the total amount of borrowings that the State and the semi-State agencies will accrue between now and the end of this financial year?
There are a combination of factors, as I said in my reply.
Since the Minister cannot be held responsible for the first two factors, are the Government now in a position to state what the total end sum of borrowings is likely to be?
I have already said that I cannot give the Deputy the total figure for the reasons stated.
I am trying by the very humble application of the Socratic method, to establish the Minister is not able to multiply. Does the Minister know the estimated tax revenue which will be produced this year?
That is a separate question. If the Deputy wishes he may ask a supplementary question later as it arises in a later question.
Does the Minister know the estimated tax revenue which this year's fiscal operations will produce? Does he know it or does he not know it? Can he not therefore calculate what he was being asked a moment ago by Deputy Bruton by multiplying that by 100 over 31?
I said already that there were a number of factors that have to be taken into consideration.
(Interruptions.)