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Dáil Éireann debate -
Thursday, 23 Jul 1981

Vol. 329 No. 7

Financial Resolutions, 1981. - Financial Resolution No. 9: General (Resumed).

Debate resumed on the following motion:
That it is expedient to amend the law relating to customs and inland revenue (including excise) and to make further provision in connection with finance.
—(Minister for Finance.)

I was going through the litany of promises in the Government programme for the agricultural sector and was coming to No. 12 in the programme as outlined by Fine Gael in their general election campaign. This was that Fine Gael — now the Government — will abolish agricultural rates on all full-time farmers who draw up an agreed programme of expansion over a five-year period with their ACOT advisor, or other authorised agency. We have heard statements from the Minister for Agriculture and from the Minister of State at the Department of Agriculture that this would be a matter of priority for them in the first days of their appointment. However, in a number of other days they changed their minds. Like the many other items which I have listed, no action whatsoever was taken in that regard. We have also heard the Minister for Agriculture speak of the Government's intention to repay the resource tax paid by farmers. There was no mention of that in yesterday's budget speech either. Pious hopes, pious aspirations. I am not in any way being critical of the Minister for Agriculture or any of his Ministers of State when I say that. The intention of the Minister and his Ministers of State is correct. They are interested and they care. They will work hard and will have a very difficult time. However, there are very few others in that Government who know about, or care about, the agricultural sector or the litany of promises which I am reading out. On farmers' taxation there are a number of items in the Government's programme. They promise to sympathetically examine the application of the manufacturing tax rate at 10 per cent to farm profits. Nothing was done about that. They promised to restore the threshold for the capital acquisition tax in respect of the handling on of family farms — nothing done about that. There is no suggestion, either, that it will be done, but I shall come to that in a few moments.

They did something about promise No. 16 — a reduction of the VAT rate on agricultural contracting. I am sure many agricultural contractors could welcome that, were it not for the terrible imposition of taxation by yesterday's budget which will ensure that no benefit will accrue to the agricultural contractor or to the farming community because of the enormous increase of input costs and costs generally imposed by the budget. This reduction also comes too late on 1 September, so nobody will benefit from it this year in relation to agricultural activity.

Promise No.17 in their programme was disease eradication. The Minister commented on this, running immediately under the umbrella of the statement, subject to the overriding need to maintain access to export markets, a period of 30 days. The pre-movement test for brucellosis and TB will be extended to 60 days.

I do not care what any Minister or any member of the parties opposite and the Government want to say about this issue. Let there be no doubt in anybody's mind here, because there is no doubt in any farmer's mind exactly what he was hearing from the chapel gates and the public meetings, from the Taoiseach right down to the newest Member of either Labour or Fine Gael, that that was what the Government would do, regardless of EEC implications. That is what the Minister of State, Deputy D'Arcy then said as spokesman for the Fine Gael party. That is just another example, like the many more which I have listed from this outfit of Labour and Fine Gael throughout the general election campaign, of the misleading of the farming community and not only that community but our entire population. However, our population including the farmers are well aware of that. They did not have to wait until yesterday to find out the situation. Yesterday confirmed their suspicions. They found out yesterday in no uncertain terms, what was being done these days, what would be done in September and what is in store in the January budget — if they can maintain the support of the six Independent spokesmen who love to speak on everything else but sit there in their seats when the voting comes, to keep this crowd in office. I do not think they will even last until the introduction of another budget. Whether they do or not, they have outlined a programme which was prepared for nothing else but to mislead the electorate, during the general election campaign. It is now becoming abundantly clear, not only in the agricultural sense but in other areas as well.

Another little item about which somebody in Fine Gael had a bone of contention was legislation on dog control being updated. That was a very important plank in the Fine Gael election programme and now, I suppose, part of the Government programme. The Government have searched up and down for three weeks around Government Departments seeing where they could find a half-penny because they were badly short of money due to the so-called mess created by Fianna Fáil — all this bunkum which has gone out in recent weeks. They did not increase the dog licences. Why did they not tell the Minister for Finance to do that, even by a few pounds? Anybody who keeps a dog would not have minded. The Government could have got a few pounds there.

Cave canem.

It is such an important item to have in their election programme. We then come to the committees, the plans and the various other items which the Government outlined. The Minister for Agriculture last night said that other measures, which he did not describe, would be taken in addition to the two small measures which he announced last night, such as giving a higher sheep subsidy to some farmers but taking it from other farmers because of the limit of 200 ewes and the interest subsidy. He said: "We can only say that it is what the Minister for Finance referred to in his budget speech," which was that modifications would take place in the disadvantaged areas scheme for headage payments, that the farm modernisation grants which the Minister did outline would be limited in certain areas, that other mobile equipment and so forth would be abolished for grant purposes and that the general level of grants would be reduced.

That is what the Coalition have in store for the farmers. The Minister for Agriculture said last night he would be taking action on the 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 plans or programmes already announced. Since ACOT were formed they have been preparing a five-year plan to present to the Minister but, unless it is completed now I doubt if it will ever be finished in view of the measures announced in yesterday's budget to curtail staff levels.

I have already congratulated the Minister and wished him well and I do not want to repeat myself. It is enough to have to repeat all the Government promises which are unlikely to be implemented, even though the Minister will do his best. Because of the cutbacks it is impossible to see how ACOT or AFT can give the necessary advice and services to the farming community that everybody agrees are necessary. The Government hit these institutions hard. They mentioned only two institutions but there may be more.

I want to discuss the land policy which the Labour Party succeeded in having included in the election programme, because Fine Gael forgot it before and during the election. I did not hear what the Minister for Agriculture had to say on the radio, but I read a report of it. He said his special budget would enable the Land Commission to buy thousands of acres, a pool of land, for leasing. I was prepared to wait until next January's budget to see what the Coalition would do but they introduced a budget yesterday, having considered the finances of the country after many hours of study. There was no mention of this land pool in the budget nor did the Minister mention it in his list of priorities yesterday. I am prepared to wait. I know the Minister will try to do something about this because I believe he has the necessary expertise to do it. There are very few people around him who know or care about the agricultural community.

The 25-point plan — the manifesto — can only be described as an exercise in oneupmanship on what the Fianna Fail Administration were doing for the farmers. The Government said they were providing £400 million for the farmers, including the interest subsidies concluded last Monday and additional funds for western drainage. The Coalition only rubber-stamped these measures. Let nobody say that these measures were compiled, negotiated or agreed by anybody in the Coalition Government.

I mentioned that last night——

The Minister did not say that, because I carefully read his speech. I expected him to be big enough to admit what we had done.

I said it was an outstanding commitment.

I did not interrupt the Minister last night and I have only a few minutes left to say something about his budget. I want to mention first what appears to be an ongoing exercise to mislead the farming community. I heard the Taoiseach's broadcast to the nation — an exercise of manipulating RTE by the present Government without a right of reply by the Opposition; the Independents are not doing much shouting about that, although one has to ask if they are Independents because they have been keeping this Government in office by every vote since we resumed. He misled the farming community and the country because, until he spoke on television, no aid for agriculture had been announced by any Minister. The Taoiseach misled the people when he said that all our announcements, of aid amounting to £400 million, would be given by the Coalition. We will keep the farming community fully informed. Although the Minister of State, Deputy Nealon, has time to dine with the press, he will not be able to prevent them from informing the farming community of what this Government will be doing in the weeks and months ahead.

We negotiated £400 million additional expenditure at home and in Brussels for the farming community since September, including the interest subsidies and drainage funds agreed by the Council of Ministers last Monday. The Government are giving this money to the farming community and I support them, because they are applying the interest subsidy for development farmers as agreed by the EEC to commercial farmers.

From the election manifesto one got the impression that this Government would do a lot in three days, and they have been in office for three weeks. When in Government we got £400 million in the last nine or ten months for the farming community and this Government are giving £6 million. To get that amount, what have this Government done? By their own admission, which is under-estimated, they have added a further 3 per cent to the consumer price index. For 18 or 19 months day and night, I had to listen to people telling me that the bug-bear for Irish agriculture was the rate of inflation. Every 1 per cent increase cost the farming community £15 million. Taking the Government's figure of 3 per cent, that will cost the farming community £45 million. This is an under-estimation and when all the budgets are added, the figure will be 6 per cent. The Government gave the farming community £6 million and took back a potential £90 million. I am not blaming the Minister for Agriculture or his Minister of State for this, but they allowed the Cabinet to do this to the farming community.

In his efforts at home or in Brussels to improve the lot of the farmers, the Minister will be fully supported by Fianna Fail because we recognise and have provided funds for the biggest sector in our economy, agriculture, and I want to ensure that the Minister and his Government will give it the same recognition. The start made yesterday is a disaster.

When we had concluded negotiations which meant an additional £260 million for our farmers, I remember being handed a statement by representatives of farming organisations which described that as a disaster for Irish agriculture. How will those same spokesmen describe the action of this Government who provided an additional £6 million for agriculture on the one hand and on the other hand took back £90 million? The Minister must bear responsibility for this.

During his speech yesterday the Minister for Agriculture said, within 24 hours of the introduction of a budget which by their admission will add 3 per cent to the inflation rate, that the Government anti-inflation programme is getting under way. At the end of the day the real increase in inflation will be 6 per cent. I am sympathetic about the difficulties which I know exist and I appreciate that this Government have been only three weeks in office. However, between now and 20 October I will watch the situation closely.

Arising from the efforts of the Fianna Fail Government, independent economists accepted that following the 40 per cent drop in farm income there would be a potential increase in real income of between 2 and 6 per cent. The only thing which can jeopardise that is the action of the Government.

I had the honour to be in charge of the Department of Agriculture during very difficult times and I have already paid tribute to the staff. I now pay tribute to those who negotiated on behalf of the farming community. I knew their difficulties and some of these have spilled over and caused the retirement of the president of the ICMSA, Mr. Anthony Leddy, a very able negotiator. I am sorry to see his departure from that office because I found him and his colleagues, Mr. Donal Cashman and Mr. Paddy Lane, to be people concerned about the difficulties of farmers and prepared to co-operate with the Government in every possible way. I know that the Minister has ties with the same people and I wonder how they will react to some of the schemes of which he now speaks. Certainly they were not mentioned during the election campaign. The Government have achieved office through the false documents they prepared. I will ensure that this Government will not do anything to undermine the successes we achieved at home and in Brussels for the farming community.

On my own behalf and on behalf of the Minister for Agriculture and Deputy Nealon, I thank Deputy MacSharry for his good wishes. I accept that ours is a very difficult job. It was interesting to listen to his contribution. He talked about the provision of £400 million but finished by admitting that his Government had managed during the past two years to achieve a drop in farmers' incomes of 40 per cent. He mentioned an increase of between 2 and 6 per cent and his figures are bound to be somewhat optimistic. We have done our figures and it is our belief that the majority of farmers will suffer a further loss in 1981 of between 2 and 4 per cent.

The Deputy spoke of the great work he did for farmers during the past two years. However, the real figures are on the record. During former Deputy Clinton's term as Minister for Agriculture price increase were as follows: milk, 104 per cent; beef, 104 per cent——

Notice taken that 20 Members were not present; House counted and 20 Members being present,

Before Deputy Allen called for a quorum I was dealing with figures and giving the price increases achieved by the former Minister for Agriculture, Mark Clinton. The price of milk and beef was increased by 104 per cent and the price of barley by 128 per cent. During the four years of the Fianna Fail administration price increases were as follows: milk, 30 per cent; beef, 30 per cent; grain 22 per cent. This includes the 1980-81 negotiations.

The former Minister spoke of the provision of £400 million for farmers but forgot to tell the House that they introduced a 2 per cent levy which took £16 million from farmers and a disease levy which took £20 million from them. Rates for three years amounted to £30 million, a resource tax amounted to £7 million, tax off stock relief amounted to £1 million and 36,000 farmers compared to 15,000 farmers were liable for income tax, which brought in £7 million. There was also a saving on lime and fertiliser subsidies in 1978 which brought in £4 million. That was a total of £85 million from the farmers' pockets during the four years of Fianna Fail administration. The former Minister now has the audacity to tell us that this only accounted for 2 per cent of farmers' income. That £85 million did not relate to profit. It was taken irrespective of the cost to the farmer. The former Minister went to great pains to tell us of the commitment of Fianna Fáil to agriculture, but he did not produce the goods. The former Minister went to the EEC and negotiated a package from December 1980 until the end of April 1981. When he came back he put it into operation on 20 May as far as lime and the AI services were concerned, a time of the year when the farmers will not require either service.

The purpose of the budget introduced by the Minister for Finance is to set the economy back on the road to economic growth. There should be no misunderstanding as to the serious nature of the economy at the present time. We have more than 125,000 people unemployed, inflation in the first half of this year has been running at an annual rate of over 20 per cent, the Government's current budget deficit before the measures taken by the Minister for Finance would have been £950 million for this year, the total Exchequer borrowing requirement would have reached virtually £2,000 million and the balance of payments deficit would have been £1,500 million. That is the climate in which we had to take over. I would ask the former administration to look back four years to when their then leader, Deputy Lynch, said the economy was in sound condition and that he hoped that, if they were kicked out in five years' time, they would be able to hand it back in the same condition.

These figures show the frightening economic position in which we find ourselves today. We were trying to maintain our living standards artificially through borrowing, much of it in foreign currency, at a level which we have never seen in the history of the State. If this were to be allowed to go on it would place in jeopardy all that has been done in recent decades to create a just and prosperous society.

As the Minister for Finance said in his budget speech, the choice before us is simple: we must either act now in a planned way to begin to put right the imbalances in our public finances and in our external accounts or we will be faced with enforced and severe economic dislocation and contraction which could arise within a matter of a very short time.

As a community we have the ability to bring our economy back under control, and the budget shows the determination of the Government to start on this process straight away. We must do two things. Firstly, we must bring our aspirations and demands into line with the value of what we produce. Secondly, we must expand our production to provide for the needs of our growing population. All sectors of the economy must contribute to a growth in output and the Government must look to the agricultural sector to contribute its full potential in this programme of expansion.

By the standards of modern developed economies agriculture still plays a crucial role in our national economy. Agriculture makes a very substantial contribution to the development of the economy through the direct employment of one in every five of the total number in employment. It also provides employment for a further 25,000 people in factories and processing plants dependent on agricultural raw materials. In addition, employment and output generated in other businesses which service agriculture accounts for a further substantial part of the economy of our rural society. Over recent years agricultural exports, in conjunction with a growing industrial base, have been responsible for much of the growth of the Irish economy. Agricultural exports have had a dual effect on the economy. Firstly, because of their low import content the multiplier effect on income has been higher than for most other industries. Secondly, they earn foreign exchange which provides the means to purchase imports of raw material and oil for further production in the economy as a whole. Furthermore direct agricultural exports generate additional external revenue in the form of the receipts from the guarantee section of FEOGA which are paid in order to support the prices of farm products on external markets. The total balance of payments contribution from the agriculture sector last year amounted to over £1,600 million or some 35 per cent of our earnings from exports.

There has been a very serious decline in cattle numbers during the past year, with numbers dropping by almost 350,000. Cattle numbers are now lower than they were eight years ago in 1972, and farmer confidence earlier this year has not been such as to generate a reversal of this position. The Government's programme for a four year plan of retocking is designed to reverse the serious position which we find our cattle industry in today.

A similar situation has occurred in the case of pigs. The total number of pigs has declined at an annual rate of 2 per cent over the past two years. The decline in numbers has been even more serious in the case of the breeding herd where the rate of decline has been in the order of 6 per cent over the past two years. This now means that the breeding herd in 1980 is now back at the 1972 level in absolute terms.

A slightly different picture emerges in the case of sheep. Even though the total number of sheep in the country has declined continuously since 1972, the breeding herd increased slightly in 1980. But again the actual number of sheep in the country is well below the 1972 level, and the breeding herd is over 300,000 below its 1972 level. These declines in our livestock numbers have had serious repercussions for the processing industries which depend on livestock as their basic raw material.

The meat processing industry is one of enormous significance to the Irish economy, both in its own right and as a vital component of the most important sectors of the agricultural industry. In 1980 output, at the farm gate, of cattle was £712 million, sheep £59 million, pigs £133 million and poultry £49 million. At a time when the European Community places a high value on good quality beef, mutton, lamb and pigmeat, we are basically well placed to supply it. The opportunity for Ireland to obtain through a dynamic meat processing industry progressively improved returns for a growing supply of meat products means that we can benefit even more in the future than we have in the past from the contribution that this industry makes in the areas of employment, farm incomes and the balance of payments. Moreover it is quite apparent that, even allowing for its basic function as a distribution medium for Irish meat products, the Irish meat processing sector is of vital economic significance in its own right as an employer in areas where non-farm employment is at a premium, as a foreign exchange earner and as a vital marketing tool for the primary sector.

The slaughtering, processing and marketing capability of the Irish cattle and beef industry is of vital importance to future economic development. The main growth and development of slaughtering plants in Ireland has occurred within the last 30 years and a major advantage of this has been the construction of efficient plants of economic size located in areas containing the highest numbers of finished cattle. There are now 39 beef slaughtering and processing plants in the country. Since 1972 eight new plants have been established while a few have ceased operations.

The majority of plants have the capacity, equipment and expertise for both slaughtering and deboning of carcases. The capacity for downstream processing of beef into highly value-added products is at present limited to a small number of specialist plants each having a relatively small capacity. It is very much in the interest of the industry to reduce its reliance on the export of beef in carcase form. At present almost 80 per cent of beef is exported in this form. While efforts to achieve an increase in the beef cow herd will be of undoubted benefit to the industry as a whole, there is no question but that the real benefits to the long term stability of industry lie in a commitment by suppliers and processors to add further value to the products for export. Next to exports of live cattle, carcase beef has the lowest value added and employment potential. As already mentioned, most meat plants have at least the ability and expertise to produce boneless beef and this is one area where an effort should be made by all concerned to enhance the value of our exports and, accordingly, our balance of payments. In so doing they can also be of major benefit in increasing employment in the industry. I may mention also that CBF are at present engaged in promoting Irish beef as a consumer product rather than as a commodity. This is a welcome change.

When one takes a look at the figures available at present of cattle slaughterings one finds that in 1974, approximately 1,064,000 cattle were slaughtered. This year there were 1,354,000 slaughtered. That increase may seem large but the very heavy slaughterings of cattle in 1980 may push up that figure somewhat higher than it should be. The drop in the cow herd particularly in the last year-and-a-half represents serious figures as far as the national herd is concerned. We find now that the cow herd has dropped to approximately 1.8 million. In 1974 and 1975 we had approximately 2.1 million in the cow herd. The Government must bear a fair share of the responsibility as far as the cow herd is concerned. While people may find it difficult to believe, the cattle herd is the foundation of our economy, because from that we get the milk and beef so vital to our economy. It would appear that my predecessor has some doubts as to the intention of this Government to implement the £100 subsidy per cow. He can take it that I was responsible for drawing up that package which seems to have annoyed him intensely. Indeed it lost Fianna Fail a lot of seats.

We were honest with the farming community. We drew up a programme which I believe is the only one that can get us out of the present difficulty. The former Minister can say what he likes but I was glad to hear him admit in this House that he brought £400 million into it which represents 2 per cent only in incomes that had dropped 40 per cent in the last two years. How he could stand over there and make that statement is incredible. That was some performance. I hope, at the end of our four years in office, we will be saying we improved the farmers' position by 40 per cent and not by 2 per cent and that we did not take 40 per cent from them.

Over the period 1970 to 1979 the volume of farm materials used by farmers grew dramatically at an annual rate of nearly 7 per cent. However, the value of farm materials in 1980 declined by almost 5 per cent in value terms and, as prices increased by 9 per cent, this meant a fall of approximately 13 per cent in real terms. A decline of 13 per cent in the volume of inputs, particularly feed and fertilisers, must inevitably reduce farm output in the subsequent year and we shall see this year the effects of this reduction of inputs on the level of farm output.

We have seen also a sharp drop in purchases of new machinery by farmers. Tractor registrations, which had been running at between 11,000 and 12,000 in 1977 and 1978, fell to less than 7,500 last year. Other machinery sales have fallen similarly. This has had serious effects not only on farmers' capacity to produce but on employment and output in the farm machinery industry. We have seen this in a particularly serious way in my constituency, but the Government plans for agricultural expansion should revive our flagging agricultural machinery industry. Government policy will be directed towards reversing this decline in the level of inputs. We will encourage the greater use of lime in areas where it is required. The production of winter feed in the form of silage must be increased, particularly on smaller farms. We will also improve the level of grants given for this purpose.

I should like to point out to the House — and it is right that these figures be put on record — that as far as lime applications were concerned in 1978 they amounted to 1.9 million tons, in 1979 to 2 million tons and in 1980 900,000 tons, in other words, cut in half. I understand that the present figures for 1981 are around 700,000. Therefore lime applications have been reduced by 66 per cent. On top of that, tractor sales are down 60 per cent, farm machinery down 50 per cent, farm building materials down 60 per cent, compound feedstuffs down 15 per cent, cattle feedstuffs down 22 per cent, fertilisers down 15 to 25 per cent. Those are the figures available at present. I heard the Minister last year blaming the awful weather. I am prepared to accept that the weather has been a contributory factor as far as yields are concerned for 1980 and 1981. The greatest problem has been the low levels of inputs for those two years. The previous Government were directly responsible because the farmer had no income. The previous Government predicted a 2 per cent to 6 per cent improvement in farm incomes in 1981. I claim we will be lucky if we get away with line ball as far as 1980 versus 1981 is concerned because I believe there will be a further reduction.

I should like to speak briefly on some aspects of our livestock breeding programme by commencing with the pig breeding area. While numerically our national pig herd has remained fairly stable in recent years the Government are anxious that the ongoing quality improvement measures should not suffer a setback at this time. The Government are determined to ensure that the national breeding programme is maintained and improved. To this end my Department will be importing new blood lines from Scandinavia in the next few weeks.

At present the Department of Agriculture, in consultation with the Department of Finance, are concluding an examination of a recent report on pedigree pig breeding. This is an area of fundamental importance to our pig industry and one on which I shall have more to say in the very near future when I have had an opportunity of examining in detail the various recommendations in that report.

My Department's provision for progeny and performance testing of pigs makes a major contribution to the improvement of quality reflected in the high standard of our slaughtered animals. It works out at present at approximately 96 per cent of grade A's or grade A specials. This is an area to which I attach particular importance. At this stage I am prepared to say that as far as pigs are concerned we can complete with any of our EEC partners. As a matter of fact we can compete with anybody worldwide as far as the conversion of feed and pigs are concerned on quality. It is a happy position to be in.

Likewise in the area of sheep breeding I believe we are all agreed that we must raise the quality of our national flock if we are to meet the rigid requirements of the more lucrative markets of Europe. Here again arrangements have been made for the importation of high class rams which it is hoped will give progeny which are suited to our rearing and fattening conditions and, at the same time, acceptable to our foreign markets.

The aim of this Government is to upgrade the standards of our national flock by pursuing vigorously the breed improvement programme through flock recording and progeny testing. These measures form the basis of selection of animals for future breeding and at the same time identify genetic improvements in growth rate and carcase quality.

Members of the House will be only too well aware that over the past few years there has been an ever-increasing focus on the so-called butter mountain in Europe. Communiqués from Brussels have concentrated on the need for restraint in the operation of measures that would result in increased milk surpluses. Given such a background the House will agree it was invitable that the substantial level of price increases for milk — which was a feature of the seventies — would taper off somewhat. It is quite clear to the Government that there will now have to be greater emphasis on such aspects as increased output from every acre and every cow if the income of the dairy farmer is not to be further eroded.

If I single out two areas — milk recording and progeny testing — in which this objective can be pursued, it is because I attach so much importance to them. The recording of the yield and the composition of the milk of individual dairy cows is a practice which should be widely adopted on Irish dairy farms. It is no accident that milk recording forms an integral part of the dairying industry in all other countries where dairying is so important. In Ireland, however, the picture is not good — approximately 4 per cent only of the national cow herd is recorded. This compares with over 60 per cent in Holland and Denmark and most of the other European countries at about 40 to 45 per cent. Therefore, there is scope for a substantial expansion in milk recording. The dairy farmer who bases his breeding and feeding management decisions on individual cow recordings is sure to improve the genetic quality and yield performance of his herd, thereby attaining a better farm income. The average milk yield in Ireland is somewhere in the region of 700 and 720 gallons per cow while our counterparts are around the 1,000 mark, and it is considerably higher in some of the more developed countries. It is a pity that proper progeny testing has not been carried out and that very little encouragement has been given. Once the programme itself has been put into operation my Department will then tackle the question of milk recording.

We have the framework to carry out the necessary functions. I believe the creameries have the staff and that very little expense would be involved. This whole question was considered recently by a study group representing all the interested organisations. They have produced the most comprehensive, interesting and stimulating report. I am at the moment applying myself to an analysis of the many recommendations made by the group. My initial reaction is that they provide the basis for a greatly expanded and more efficient milk recording service. I will have more to say on this issue after the programme has been put into operation.

As well as increasing the volume of output and as a consequence of achieving a better farm income it is desirable that the genetic merits of our cattle should be raised. This can best be done through the identification and selection of superior sires for use in the breeding herd. It is my intention, with this in mind, to expand the existing programme, when the economy permits, for the progeny and performance testing of both dairy and beef bulls. I will be providing more facilities for the performance testing programme at our area stations and elsewhere. I also hope to provide grants to the area stations towards meeting the capital costs of expanding the progeny testing programme.

One of the most serious difficulties which farmers have to face at present is the payment of interest rates on capital and money borrowed from the lending institutions for farm investment purposes. Total lending to agriculture by these institutions has now reached some £1,200 million at the present time. With farm incomes, before allowing for interest payments, fallen from £836 million in 1978 to £669 million for last year the burden of repayments has become very severe.

At the Council of Ministers earlier this week the Minister for Agriculture received agreement on the provision of an interest subsidy for farmers in the development categories who took out loans for farm investment under the farm modernisation scheme. This subsidy will apply for two years both in the case of loans already incurred in financing eligible expenditure on farm development plans and for a period not exceeding two years in the case of new approved development plans. At the same time, the Government programme for the agricultural industry provides assistance for farmers not in the official development categories. A national scheme for farmers in need who do not qualify under the EEC scheme is being drawn up. Discussions will be undertaken with farm organisations and the financial institutions to work out the details of this scheme. Only if we can overcome the financial problems facing many of our farmers can we expect them to expand their farm output, an expansion which is the foundation of the Government's objectives for the agricultural sector.

I would like to point out, particularly during the past year, that this has been a very serious impediment as far as agricultural development is concerned. While we were in Opposition when Deputy Bruton, was spokesman for agriculture, we tried to make the Government aware of the difficulties in this area. Shortly before the election the Minister for Agriculture ran over to Brussels and came back with a scheme about four days before the election just because he read it in our programme. I have had negotiations with the banks and the ACC and I have in my possession figures which were made available to the Government at that time. It is no credit to them that they did not take any action on this issue.

We had a lot of talk today about the Minister and all the negotiations he undertook, but he had in his possession last August certain figures and he came here on numerous occasions, misled the House and said there were 3,500 farmers in difficulties. The figures I have in my possession today suggest a far higher figure. I suggested that figure to the Minister and I asked him what did he base his figure on. He said he based it on some report drawn up by ACOT. When I checked with ACOT I was told they had no figures in regard to that issue. They said they took samples in certain areas to see what the problem was but they had no genuine figures. The figures were in the ACC and in the banks but the Minister did not take any action.

The reason why some of our programme was not announced yesterday is that the Minister and I are currently engaged in consultations with the banks and the ACC. This is the valve from which can be released the expansion as far as agriculture is concerned in the coming year. There is no use in releasing that valve next March or April, as the previous Minister did. Action has to be taken now. I hope this announcement can be made around the first week in September although I hope it will be a little sooner. There are many problems but the previous Government stand discredited on that issue. They made no attempt to relieve the situation. The Minister ran over to Brussels just before the election and when he returned he called the farming organisations together and told them that we had got a great deal. This only represented 22,000 development farmers. What about the other 150,000, the commercial farmers? Some said they were well off but I know commercial farmers who have only 60 to 70 acres and have very high commitments. It is vital to our economy that the people in financial difficulties for the last two years should be relieved because their importance to the economy can never be under-estimated. Fianna Fáil under-estimated it. It was rather interesting to hear the figure of 3,500 which they bandied around during two debates in this House. That was the only figure the Minister had but I know if he asked for the reports from the ACC or from the banks he would have the figures. I hope the announcement can be made by the first week in September. This will be a rather expensive scheme but I believe we have the commitment from the Minister for Finance and the Government and that is what is important. I do not want to blame the previous Minister for Agriculture because he had no commitment from his Government and that is the reason why the scheme was never put into operation and no steps taken to alleviate the position.

I would like to deal with the inflation situation. The period 1970-78 was the most prosperous in the history of Irish agriculture. The outstanding factor giving rise to this new prosperity was the unprecedented increase in output prices which took place both immediately prior to and after we joined the EEC. The rise in agricultural prices over the whole period, 1970-78 was over 280 per cent. This compares with a rise in input prices of 244 per cent, and consumer prices of 169 per cent. During this period, there-fore, output prices kept ahead both of input prices and of general inflation. The result was an increase in income from self employment in agriculture in normal terms of 360 per cent. In real terms this represented an increase of some 70 per cent. On a per head basis real farm incomes doubled in this period.

In 1979, however, the tide turned. The rise in agricultural prices in that year was only 5.9 per cent while the rise in input prices at 12.6 per cent was more than double this rate. During 1979 the consumer price index rose by 13.3 per cent. The downturn which commenced in the agricultural economy in 1979 continued on into 1980. Once again, the prices and production environment were not conducive to agricultural expansion. Product prices actually fell by some 3 per cent compared with 1979, while input costs continued to grow sharply, with energy costs the major factor. Inflation was considerably higher and interest rates reached very high levels. These increases in expenses resulted in a drop in family farm income of 9½ per cent in nominal terms. Adjusting for the increase in the consumer price index, this represented a drop of over 23 per cent in real terms, and after allowing for a change in numbers employed in agriculture the fall in real terms was 22 per cent.

Thus over the two years, 1979 and 1980, there was a decline of almost 40 per cent in farm incomes in real terms. This substantial fall in the purchasing power of agriculture, which is such a significant sector of the Irish economy, has had serious repercussions on the sectors linked to agriculture. A depression in farming severely hits local business, including the food industries and industries supplying farm inputs. Only by getting inflation under control can conditions be created under which agriculture will expand and prosper.

In connection with the changes in VAT announced on Tuesday by the Minister for Finance in the budget, the Minister has agreed that because of the importance of agriculture to national production and exports the flat rate VAT refund for farmers will be raised to 1.5 per cent to offset any increase in VAT on farm inputs. Further, the Government have also stated their commitment to provide VAT relief for agricultural contractors. The Government wish to encourage and maintain agricultural contractor services throughout rural areas. The effective VAT rate charged on them will be reduced from 10 per cent to 3 per cent as from 1 September. The Deputy opposite made a great point about the amount of inflation the Government measures would cause in agriculture but he forgot to state that the clawback to agriculture has been increased to 50 per cent which will offset any extra charges on agriculture. I think he suggested a figure of £40 million in a half year and £90 million in a whole year and so the clawback will be complete. The question of agricultural contractors is important but Fianna Fáil charged 10 per cent VAT on them. They are important to the industry and had the 10 per cent remained it would have done serious damage to the contracting sector which is vital to the industry.

The Government are committed to encouraging necessary capital investment in farming. Emphasis will be placed on promoting investment of the most productive kind. Many farms still have a fair proportion of land which is not giving a proper return. Much of this land could be brought to full production by draining and other forms of reclamation. When farmers are considering development of their holdings that is where they should first look so as to expand output and improve income. Proper stocking and utilisation of reclaimed land can bring an almost immediate benefit to farmers. At any time, but especially when resources are scarce, both at farming and national level it is important that all farm investment should be carefully planned. Advisers have a special responsibility in this regard. The end result of the investment in terms of output and income must be carefully worked out so as to determine the nature and scale of the investment that can prudently be undertaken. The lending agency also must accept an appropriate degree of responsibility in relation to the facilities they provide for farmers. In the past they have not been as careful as they should be. When things are going well and farmers can show a very good profit that is all right but unfortunately that does not apply when you get a bad Government. Let us hope we do not get another bad Government such as we had for the past three years.

So far as this Government are concerned, farmers are assured that funds will continue to be provided in the future to encourage investment. Extension of the western drainage scheme to cover an additional 125 acres will ensure the continuity of the scheme for some years. Expenditure under the farm modernisation scheme has reflected the high level of capital investment being undertaken by farmers. Subject to what I have said about the need for establishing priorities as regards investment and the need for planning, it is expected that grants under the scheme and the other associated capital grant schemes will continue to inject something like £40 million a year into farm development.

There has been a reduction in the area under potatoes. In 1960 it was about 70,500 acres; in 1970 it was down to 40,000 acres and in 1980 it was still at 40,000 acres. Consumption of potatoes, particularly in the fresh state, has also been going down and these are general tendencies I understand in developed countries. Consumption of processed potatoes is increasing consistently and this country has been importing appreciable quantities. In 1980 imports of processed potatoes and potatoes for processing totalled about 20,000 tonnes. There is a growing market covering many possible products and I would encourage interested persons to look closely at this area now that our national marketing and processing programme for the potato sector has been cleared in Brussels. I understand there are now no problems regarding the European market. With the possible exception of the export of seed potatoes I think we have never used the market for consumption. The import of potatoes for processing should be a pointer to our growers who have now set up a board and I would encourage them to contract with areas of consumption in our own State. It is regrettable to see imported potatoes coming on our own market. Since we are ordinarily about self-sufficient for human consumption in the fresh state, imports were confined to our requirements between 20 and 1,500 tonnes from 1975 to 1979 until the EEC trade was opened up with the implementation in May 1980 of Community plant health regulations which also provide for some third country trade. In the summer of 1980 approximately 12,000 tonnes were imported under the new regime. We in Fine Gael brought to the notice of the then Minister the importation of potatoes where third countries were concerned and, to give credit where it is due, he brought in an order prohibiting the importation of potatoes from third countries. That was a necessary development and one which will be followed up by this Government to ensure that the markets at home are available to our growers. I accept that as far as EEC countries are concerned we have not authority to stop any imports of potatoes but I appeal to growers to contract with outlets in our own State. That should not be too difficult because they are an easy product to handle.

In my limited time, although tempted to go into other areas, I wish to bring to the notice of the Minister some of the performance that took place, particularly in his last year.

Is the Deputy not Minister now?

I meant the previous Minister. In The Irish Times of January 21 last a correspondent, Ella Shanahan, writes: “Estimate for agriculture cut by £21 million.” I am prepared to accept that was not the Minister's fault and that it was the Minister for Finance who cut £21 million out of the agriculture Vote. The farmers must ask: what commitment have Fianna Fáil to the farmers when they took away £21 million in a year when things could not be worse as far as farmers were concerned? We find, looking through the accounts, that we have to have a Supplementary Estimate after the election of £35 million and we believe that it will be about £30 million short at the end of the year. The fact is that if the previous Minister had the account in front of him he would be between £50 million and £60 million short. Yet he saw fit to take £21 million off the Estimate.

That is what created the uncertainty that now exists in agriculture. It is our job to remove that uncertainty and create confidence in the agricultural community. That is vital to our economy. The Minister, Deputy Dukes, has my full support and I know we have the Government's support in ensuring that agriculture will get its fair share due to its importance in the national economy. We have outlined our policy—Fianna Fáil have become proficient recently in announcing our policies—and I have the document on agriculture in which the Minister stated—I am not sure what he stated—but in that document is outlined the only way in which our farmers can get back on the expansion road for agriculture. That expansion can improve the entire economy.

I am calling Deputy Seán Loftus.

I have been in the House since 5.30. I have waited for an opportunity to speak. I understood that I was to follow Deputy D'Arcy and I insist on that right now. I shall not relinquish it in any way.

The right rests with the Chair.

There has been an agreement with the Whips.

No, there has not been any agreement so far as the Chair is concerned. The Chair decides who will speak. Deputy Loftus will be speaking for seven or eight minutes. He will not take from the time of the Deputy who will have his full time to speak. It is not my function to deprive the Deputy of his right to speak but I would point out that Deputy Loftus indicated earlier to me that he would like to speak. In seven or eight minutes' time Deputy Keegan may speak.

I accept the ruling of the Chair provided Deputy Keegan is assured of his full time.

Certainly he will get his full time when he speaks.

May I enter a caveat? I have no desire to intervene in the maiden speech——

Is the Minister speaking on a point of order?

I am making a point. Is the Chair satisfied with the situation that of the five Independents in the House four will have spoken——

That is not a point of order. I am asking the Minister to resume his seat.

It is an appropriate point.

It is not a point of order, rather it is a point of disorder. I am calling Deputy Loftus to speak.

I disagree with the Chair.

I took the viewpoint of the Government that it is only from economic strength that jobs can be provided and protected and that it was essential to put the national finances on a sound footing now. In the national interest I supported this view and, therefore, I supported the first four Financial Resolutions.

I welcomed the Youth Employment Agency Scheme to integrate and extend youth employment schemes. I welcomed in particular the decision to give special standing to the National Youth Council and other youth bodies. I see this as acceptance by the Government of the principle of self-help, which I support. Our youth and their needs, including their educational requirements — particularly the input of VEC education, the Cinderella of our educational system — must be recognised by the Government. As regards the College of Technology, Bolton Street, only 10 per cent of the students who apply for third level education can get places there because we have not the resources in the College of Technology. I should like to remind the Minister that there is a vacant site beside Bolton Street. I hope he will agree that the VEC may purchase the site and thus expand the College of Technology. This would be of considerable help to students who wish to get into third level education.

I wish to put on record that I did not vote in support of an across-the-board 50 per cent increase in VAT charges as set out in Financial Resolution No.7. I realise this 50 per cent increase in VAT charges will take place, but, as an Independent I will be monitoring the effects of the increases, particularly in relation to possible adverse effects on existing jobs.

When the January budget is presented I will insist that the Government's medium and long-term plans to provide a just tax system will be incorporated into the budget. I will insist also that the January budget will include clawbacks on individual items affected by this 50 per cent increase in VAT. I will insist that there be a clawback to motorists who have been particularly hit by this budget. I do not own a car but I believe the injustice done to motorists should be rectified in the January budget. The same should apply to any other category who may have been unjustly treated as a result of the increase in VAT.

I share the concern expressed by the FUE that there are many firms who cannot afford to pay wage increases. Equally, I share the concern of trade unions for employees and the protection of their standard of living. I hope there will not be a confrontation situation of "them" and "us" but instead that employers and trade unions will adopt an approach that together we will solve the economic problems which are bound to arise as a result of this budget.

I do not accept that price increases in toto must be passed on to the consumer, as was announced in newspapers today by one of the bodies concerned. All parties from management, distribution, wholesale and retail outlets and the consumers must pay their fair share of the price increases. This will require goodwill and a co-operative effort from all sides. Frankness and honesty in the interest of the common good will also be required. I do not agree with the decision to permit CIE to increase fares. The management of CIE should be directed by the Government to manage their economically underutilised land at, over and around their railway stations in Dublin and throughout the country for comprehensive developments, including offices, flats and housing. This should be official planning policy. This is something I have been advocating since 20 January 1969. Hundreds of CIE railway stations properties would appreciate in value, as happened in Toronto. CIE could use the properties as collateral with the financial institutions who invest in property development. Then CIE could modernise their system, give decent standards and conditions for their employees and actually subsidise the fares.

Deputy Colley referred to the Bill dealing with archaeology which I welcome. He spoke in a derogatory way about "those who were trying to preserve the Wood Quay site" and he named me. He implied that saving the Wood Quay site would mean using public moneys. He then said that what we need, of course, is jobs. Since being involved with the planning appeal on 6 May 1971 I have never stated I wanted Wood Quay preserved. Wood Quay should have a development on its site in keeping with its tourist and archaeological potential. A study has been done on this matter by Colin McIvor and Associates. A sum of £3.6 million per year could be got from the Wood Quay site if we had a development in keeping with its tourist and archaeological potential. This can still be done. The civic offices could be relocated on the north side beside the Customs House on the 28 acres of land which the Port and Docks Board no longer require for port purposes. This would bring jobs to the north inner city, which is supposed to be the stated Government policy. The saving of Wood Quay would represent a saving of the taxpayers' money and it would also create jobs on the north side of the city. Professor Lichfield in his report to Irish Life said that it was possible to revitalise the north inner city and create new jobs in the construction industry but this would require bold decisions. I hope the Government will take this into account.

I welcome this opportunity to make some comments on the budget. This is one of the most cruel supplementary budgets that one could imagine any democratic Government rushing through Parliament. Before I deal with the budget I must comment on the statements of the Minister of State, Mr. D'Arcy — unfortunately he has left the House now — and that of his senior Minister, Deputy Dukes.

He dealt at length with the problems of agriculture and in the course of his speech he seemed to convey to the House that he was still the Opposition spokesman for agriculture and that he blamed Fianna Fáil for all the economic ills associated with agriculture. Towards the end of his speech he realised suddenly he was now the Minister responsible for agricultural policies, that he was one of the men of superior intelligence who were screaming to be put into office and who had all the bright ideas about transforming agriculture and industry. Those people are now in the Government. We will await anxiously the results of their superior intelligence, their new and bright ideas and all the expertise they propose to introduce into the Government.

I am convinced the Minister of State will not be able to deliver on any of the new promises. He will not be able to deliver all he promised to the farming community when he was spokesman for agriculture in the House. He spoke about Fianna Fail misleading the people. It is Fine Gael who are now misleading them. He spoke about the "Clinton era". He did not tell us that during that period 10,000 cattle died of starvation. Cow slaughterings in 1974-75 were the highest on record because of farmer disillusionment. Cows were given away for £60 a head at the time and dropped calves were sold for 50p each to get rid of them.

Deputy D'Arcy conveniently forgot to mention these disadvantages. He spoke about slaughterings now in the meat factories being very low. That is correct and the reason is that exports of cattle on the hoof have been increasing. Deputy D'Arcy was one of the chief advocates of that trade. He is now in charge of marketing and research in the Department and he has a chance to do something about it. He has left the House, but I hope he will read the Offical Report and that he will come back to tell us how he has succeeded in his efforts to solve all the problems he has set out to solve.

Deputy D'Arcy and his party came to power by accident, because of the number of Independents who were elected. That is what gave the Government the balance of power. Fine Gael were able to hammer out an agreement with Labour. I am glad to see Deputy Desmond in the House. I wish him every success. I always recognised him as a level headed man and I hope his tenure of office will be successful. However, he is an urban Deputy and I hope he will not be bored if I continue to deal with rural matters.

I have a rural background.

I noticed that Deputy D'Arcy addressed Deputy MacSharry as if he and Fianna Fail were still in office. He spoke about the drop in the cow herd and about the low milk yield per unit. He said he will try to arrange that milk yield per unit will be increased from 750 gallons to 1,000 gallons within 12 months. I warn him that I will be back here asking him for an account of his stewardship, on how he failed to do that. He said he would do it for every dairy farmer in the country. Perhaps he can do it for the privileged few but how will he manage it for all dairy farmers? All of us would be delighted if that goal could be achieved.

I remember when the record milk yield was 500 gallons per cow. We have come a long way since then because of a vast improvement in stock breeding and the introduction of new breeding herds. All this helped to improve milk yields. Of course weather plays a significant part in milk production. When cows have to be kept in in bad weather milk yields drop if the animals are not properly fed. I hope our farmers will enjoy the benefits of Deputy D'Arcy's superior intelligence. The Minister for Agriculture is a book farmer and Deputy D'Arcy is his senior assistant. It is problematical whether things would improve if the positions were reversed, but that is not a matter for the Opposition party. We must wait to see how farming will thrive under this new talent. Some political commentators have stated that the outlook for agriculture is now bright because of these bright men in control of the shaping of agricultural policy. Time will tell.

Those of us who travel to Europe occasionally know all about farming problems because of surpluses and marketing. We know that marketing must be organised properly so that farmers will have guaranteed outlets for their production. Time does not allow me to go into all these matters and the other enormous problems associated with agriculture.

Deputy D'Arcy referred to vast concessions to agricultural contractors. He conveniently forgot to refer to the bills facing farmers because of the new VAT rates. These will be a serious impediment to expansion. The Minister of State also forgot to say that farmers must buy new equipment such as milking machines and other small machinery, possibly washing machines for their wives, and that all these things will be subject to the new VAT rates. He did not tell us what they will be given to compensate for these increases.

He did not tell us that farmers nowadays find cars indispensable and that cars do not run on air. Farmers must buy petrol and other oils at the increased prices. They must pay the increased VAT on cars and they will now be subjected to the re-introduced road tax. The Minister of State did not say a word about all these things in his 45-minute speech. Neither did he say that farmers' incomes in 1981 are being eroded savagely by this unnecessary supplementary budget. Through their propaganda machine the Government succeeded in convincing the people that our economy was in a shambles. They forgot to mention that revenue is always slow in reaching Departments in the first half of the year. Let me give some reasons why revenue is not as buoyant in the first half of any year as it is in the remainder of the year. Let us take an example of an employer giving employment of 200 people. He deducts each week from their pay packets their PAYE contribution, their social welfare contribution and their health contribution. He uses that money for working capital within his enterprise with the result that the Department do not benefit immediately from the amount of money which has been collected.

Factories have been doing that for years and they continue to do it. They wait until the last moment to forward the money to the Department. They have the use of the money for working capital. This helps them to survive. It probably helps them to show a profit at the end of the year. This is not the best type of arrangement. It is not good business tactics. Revenue should be forwarded the minute it is collected. This is being done in industry and in the private sector. It is one reason for the lack of buoyancy in the first half of the year. I do not know whether this was mentioned in the House before. We all know that this money has been retained within enterprises. The Taoiseach misled the people when he said our finances are in a mess. He deliberately overlooked the fact that revenue is always slow in reaching the Department in the first half of the year.

This supplementary budget is unnecessary. It can best be described as a grab-all budget. Millions of pounds are being extracted from the people. People will have to deprive themselves of the necessaries of life in order to meet their tax commitments. That will happen before the end of the year. This is a disastrous budget. It will have a detrimental effect on the inflow of revenue to this Government. People will cut back deliberately. They will cease spending in areas where normally they would spend because of the cruel and savage increase in VAT and in the price of petroleum and other commodities.

Deputy D'Arcy's speech was political. Conveniently he ignored all the facts which confront the people today. He ignored the true situation which will arise as a result of this budget. There is an old saying that the last straw will break the camel's back. The camel's back has been broken by the introduction of this budget. It will take many years to restore confidence to the Irish taxpayer. He sees that so much is being taken and so little given in return.

It has been said that farmers will benefit to the tune of £6 million, but how many millions will they contribute to the Exchequer this year through the increased price of petrol and the new tax on their cars, their tractors, their pick-ups and their trucks? They are only one section of the community. What about the PAYE workers who provide the capital to keep the State going? They make the finances available to the Government. Are they getting anything they were promised by the Labour Party or the Fine Gael Party? They are not, and they know they are not.

Their mode of conveyance to and from their place of work has been taxed to the hilt. We are all proud of the fact that almost every worker has his own car which enables him to get to his place of work and enables his wife and family to have some little enjoyment at the week-end. That enjoyment has been taken from the worker and his wife and family. He will be lucky if he can purchase the petrol to take him to and from work. He will have to forget about his week-end trips to the Dublin mountains, the lakes of Killarney, or the lakes of County Westmeath.

These are serious implications which were not researched before this budget was introduced. I was surprised last Tuesday when the new Taoiseach said this budget was forced on them. Nobody in this land was more anxious to be Taoiseach than Deputy FitzGerald. He is now the Taoiseach. He is the mastermind behind this budget. Is this his best? Is this all he can offer to the Irish people? He maintains he got a mandate from them.

What can we expect in 1982 having had this budget foisted upon us now? Listening to the speeches by the Taoiseach and his Ministers one would think this was the annual budget and not merely a supplementary budget. They referred to the Fianna Fail budget of last January. That was the annual budget, the state of the nation budget, which was meant to steer us through until January 1982. Are we to have two budgets a year while this Government are in office? We do not know whether that will be long or short. We do not know how long the Independents will continue to support the Government. I believe they will support them for a long time irrespective of the consequence.

How much damage will be done to the economy as a result of this budget? I talked about agriculture and agricultural machinery. The increased tax on agricultural machinery will create a further slump in farm machinery sales and create further unemployment in that industry. Roughly 6,000 to 7,000 people are engaged in the sale, distribution, maintenance and repair of farm machinery. How many of those jobs are at risk today because of this budget? When the real message sinks home to the employers they will have to ask themselves: can I continue to maintain employment? Can I continue to pay the national wage agreement as a result of the penal impact of this budget?

The motor industry, which gives employment to 26,000 people, will also be badly hit. Recently I met the motor traders from the midlands who told me they were pleased at the fact that car sales had picked up in 1981. They were satisfied that the future looked bright — this was before the election — provided car tax was not introduced and provided there was no further imposition on petrol. Unfortunately, the worst has happened so far as that industry is concerned. Car tax has been re-introduced and the rates per horse power have been increased. What this means to the motor industry in the long run is contraction in sales and a slump in the entire industry. I am speaking about those engaged in assembly. Unfortunately, that seems to be a dying industry due to cheap imports from abroad, but the bulk of employment in the industry is in the servicing and repair of secondhand vehicles.

People will not be able to travel as much as they did. The average worker will consider himself lucky if he can afford petrol to take him to and from work. Professional people and the self-employed can do without a car to a greater extent than an ordinary worker. People are faced with the prospect of not being able to afford to travel to work. The budget is no inducement to anyone to remain in employment because of its cruel and harsh implications.

I see little future for the 26,000 people engaged in the industry. There will be mass unemployment. As I have said, the motor industry was just picking up after the recession which affected all countries. Some people seem to think that the recession only concerned us, but it concerned every other country in Europe as well. We were coming out of it, the economy was beginning to improve and people were satisfied that their future lay here.

This budget is guaranteed a safe passage through the House because of the Independent Deputies who are more concerned about their positions in the Dail than they are about the welfare of the community at large. None of us wants an election, but, if it is in the best interests of the people that it be held, it should be. The Taoiseach is determined to hold on regardless of the consequences and the economic mess which will be left in his trail.

The motor industry has been dealt a severe body blow. Another sector will also come a cropper to the VAT increases: it will affect every county council or local authority obliged to pay VAT on certain types of moneys used on road grants. They will now be obliged to pay 15 per cent VAT and that will mean further redundancies in staff. It will hit Dublin Corporation in the same way as Westmeath County Council. More men will be laid off. Even at this late stage I appeal to the Minister to make special provisions in the Finance Bill for the exclusion of local authorities because of the serious situation in which they find themselves. They must pay that 5 per cent or suffer the consequences of withholding capital grants.

It is a serious situation for local authorities. It is an area of taxation I did not fully support even during Fianna Fáil's term of office. I stated that it was a bad system of collection and depleted the amount of money available to them for useful work. Bad and all as it was, it is 50 per cent worse now because of the increase in VAT. There will be more potholes and sewer pipes blocked because they will be unable to pay for their repair. The Government should take corrective measures or ensure that local authorities have a further allocation of money to enable them to run services for the rest of the year.

Local authorities operate on a tight schedule and have always done their best to stretch their financial resources. I was disappointed to hear the Minister for Finance say he was thinking of other forms of revenue for local authorities. Does that mean there is something new on the horizon? Does the Minister envisage going back to the old rating system? We will wait and see what proposals the Government have. No matter how one looks at it, revenue is revenue and must come from one source. The average tax-payer has only one source of revenue and that is his return from his employment. No matter what taxes are introduced, he only has his pay packet.

I do not believe there was any need for the stringent measures in the budget. The buoyancy of revenue in the second half of this year would have taken the Government along. I am convinced that less petrol will be bought, fewer cars will be purchased, the farming community will buy less materials, farmers' wives will purchase less and people will only buy what they really need. The old age pensioner, the widow and orphan will buy very little because of the meagre increase granted to them in the budget.

The Minister has been telling us about the substantial increases for social welfare recipients. What is being given in this area will not make up for the increase in the cost of living as a result of this budget. In the event of us having a severe winter I would fear for many old age pensioners who are living alone and who will find it very difficult to provide themselves with the necessities of life. The very substantial increases that we granted in January last in social welfare payments were criticised at the time by both Labour and Fine Gael as being inadequate. If increases of the magnitude granted then were inadequate how much more inadequate is the 3 per cent being granted now in the wake of the price increase being imposed? Old age pensioners are facing a severe time but there will be no question of their being out on the streets in protest. All these people want is the opportunity to live out their lives in peace and comfort and there is an obligation on all of us to ensure that they are able to do so.

Our society has taken a turn for the worse as the recent disturbances in Dublin and in other parts of the country indicate but how much more serious will be the situation in the future if we do not come to grips now with the problem of unemployment, but how many more people will become unemployed as a direct consequence of this budget? I have referred to the motor industry and to the farm machinery industry in which, respectively about 26,000 and about 6,000 people are employed. It will not be possible to maintain all the jobs in those two areas because of this budget and the same applies to many other areas also. None of us is happy when there is an increase in the unemployment figures. Any such increase means a further drain on the already limited resources available. I wonder how many young people will be able to find employment in September or October. In the past many of them went straight from school to work. Job opportunities are diminished substantially already because of the budget.

Reference has been made to the special youth employment schemes. One can only ask what was wrong with those schemes already in operation? What was wrong with a programme which resulted in the retraining of thousands of middle-aged people and of the training of many young people? The Government in implementing a new scheme in this area are involving the State in all the additional expenditure that this will necessitate in terms of personnel, office accommodation and so on. There was much emphasis on the unemployment figures in the run up to the election but if one compares them with the huge increase in population they are not all that bad.

The announcement of the withdrawal of interest subsidy on housing loans is very disappointing. It is a retrograde step and will make the task of providing oneself with a house very difficult, if not impossible. This is a step that is likely to lead to much unrest. It is a measure that will affect most, perhaps, those in the middle income group. Indeed, I shall be surprised if today's middle class are not the new poor of our society in the near future.

Another proposal that is very disappointing is the withdrawal of help for such projects as sports complexes, especially at a time when it is more important than ever before to provide proper recreational amenities for our young people. We in Government provided the maximum possible by way of assistance for sports complexes throughout the country. In that way we were providing places in which young people could come together to relax and enjoy themselves. In the absence of such amenities many young people simply take to the streets with the consequent rise in vandalism that that brings about. The provision of proper recreational facilities helps also to keep our youth away from the lounge bars.

Another measure that will have a further impact on employment is the increases in drink and cigarette prices. I am not in any way an advocate of drinking but we must realise that the industry is one in which many people are employed. There is nothing wrong with drink so long as it is not abused. Taken with the other savage increases that are being imposed the increase in the price of this commodity will lead to further redundancies.

This budget is disastrous. Unfortunately, it will be passed but the Government and those Independent Members who vote for it will rue the day for the reasons I have outlined. The budget will be the cause of much suffering in terms of unemployment and of breakdowns in services.

First of all, I thank Deputy Keegan for his generous comments on my appointment. I spent many a week with Deputy Keegan representing Ireland in the Council of Europe and I will miss the many occasions when we were together. I would also like to thank you, A Leas-Cheann Comhairle, for your permission to speak and to congratulate you on your election as Leas-Cheann Comhairle of this House.

In my first contribution to this Dail I propose to make some comments on the past and future roles of economic and social planning in the Government of our country and to refer to some underlying principles which I favour. At the heart of any serious analysis of the present crisis must be the recognition that under the previous administration all pretence of economic and social planning was abandoned. No coherent strategy existed. Rather was there a desperate day-to-day application of political expediency. With the politically-motivated destruction of the central planning structures of the 1977-79 period there was no forum or focus for the planning of any of the key elements of economic and social recovery. This was clearly evident even from my very first week in my Department of Finance. On the other hand, this Government are committed to the concept and practice of planning. The programme for Government upon which the administration's work will be based underlines both the necessity for planning and the importance of providing new and truly participative structures for planning.

The specific programme upon which the Labour Party fought the election campaign was in its totality a direct commitment to planning. We have always fought election campaigns on the basic political argument that the nation's economy and the social development of the nation must be planned. From our viewpoint it is self-evident that the reliance upon a mixture of market forces and political pragmatism does not, has not produced and will not produce the economic and social justice for which we yearn. The Government, therefore, must accept the primary responsibility for national development. In a national plan which has as its purpose a thriving and expanding economy, a wide range of social services and a high level of welfare, short-term political advantage cannot be used as the sole determinant of investment and decision. Rather must there be a genuine national strategy for growth, for jobs and for social advancement in which the overall welfare of the vast majority of ordinary men and women in this country and the future welfare of their children are given the first priority over and in the face of any individual or sectional interest.

The idea of planning has had its ups and downs in the political administration of the country over recent years. Since the mid-sixties there was a steady drift away from the view that planning in one form or another was crucial for national economic and social development. The 1977-79 O'Donoghue experiment, if I may call it that, failed both in technical and institutional terms. However, the changed circumstances of the last two or three years have led many people to a positive re-appraisal of the role of planning. In the words of Senator Whitaker to an ICTU summer course some years ago, "Confronted with the prospect of a steadily rising population, the need for some 30,000 new jobs a year, a growing number of dependants and the present disorder in incomes and public finances, who would rely on laissez-faire or on market forces alone to solve our present problems at least in a way we would tolerate?”

Planning, therefore, is essential if we are to identify our national economic and social goals and to translate them into effective programmes of action. This is even more obvious when one considers the nature of the changes and challenges we face at present. I would stress that these challenges are very great indeed. I will point out four changes.

It would help if the Minister would indicate the document from which he has quoted.

The 1976 ICTU Summer Course, and I am making a copy of the script available immediately.

I would indicate the challenges we are facing in trying to plan the economy and I will list four of them at this stage. They are well known but they need reiteration in a debate of this nature. We have a continuing high level of unemployment, with all its attendant social effects, which is Ireland's most serious and most deep-rooted problem. We have the impact of inflation on investment, living standards and savings. We have the question of a balanced and equitable determination of incomes, the question of an equitable system of taxation, and the need to improve the quality and scope of our social provisions. All of these are very closely related—there is no need for me to say this to you, a Leas-Cheann Comhairle, with your considerable experience as Minister of State at the Department of Education—to perhaps the greatest challenge of all: the changing demographic pattern in the country. It is clear that the questions raised by the present rate of increase in our population, by the long-term demands of job creation for our young people, who constitute 50 per cent of the population, and by the growing needs of the elderly in our national community are central to all considerations of policy both in the short term and in the long term.

Therefore, I advance the view that, faced with these problems, we have no option whatsoever but to accept the necessity for a coherent system of economic and social planning into the eighties. It has to be flexible. It has to be reviewed on a regular basis and it has to be brought into balance on a regular basis through dialogue with various interested parties, particularly with the social partners. The framework of the objectives of that kind of planning has to be set at the highest political level. I regret very deeply that that approach was absent in the Fianna Fáil political administrative approach because——

That is not true.

The Minister without interruption, please.

The Minister should go back to the Gaiety Theatre.

We are not concerned about histrionics now. We are concerned about allowing the Minister to proceed.

I regret that that approach is in sharp contrast to Fianna Fail policy which over the years—and particularly in recent years with the demise, so to speak, of my constituency colleague, Deputy O'Donoghue — became little more than a mixture of expedient arithmetic and largely incompetent muddling through. The present Leader of the Opposition does not and never did believe in economic and social planning. He was pragmatic from day to day, more interested in public relations than in what one might call economic reality. Therefore, in the period ahead we have the problem of evolving and implementing a total strategy for economic and social development. The basis of that will be set out in the national plan which will be at the centre of this Government's programme as far as I have any influence over the direction of Government policies.

We have to look at the situation which faced us and certainly faced me when I walked into the Department of Finance and tried to find out what in God's name was happening in the past two or three weeks in terms of Government policy and what the thrust of the policy was. Even the very fact that this Government have taken some action, however unpalatable that action may be, is to be commended. This budget and the action now taken represent a significant break from the drift and the futile hoping for salvation and for an upturn in the world economy which characterised the previous administration. This budget and this debate is an abandonment of the theme song `Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt". That is what the previous administration gave us by way of responsible management.

The difference between the present Government and the previous administration is not the result of different perceptions of the problems facing us. I think both sides are aware of the problems. There is no doubt about that. It is a difference between on the one hand solving problems and on the other hand postponing solutions because they are unpalatable and, therefore, making the task ultimately far more difficult. The national economy cannot get better without remedial treatment. Postponement of the evil day would simply result in further deterioration. That is not the response which the electorate would want from us.

Almost two years ago the previous administration put a planning document before this House entitled "Investment and National Development, 1979-1983". It was an excellent document and it analysed very clearly the problems and the choices facing us. Paragraph 2.13 stated:

Irrespective of the international economic climate, the importance of domestic behaviour in determining our future cannot be over-emphasised. The domestic response to future external developments can range from a good, well co-ordinated response by a community with a shared sense of direction to a scramble by various interests groups for short-term gains irrespective of the impact of their actions on other groups or on the overall well-being of the community.

It was well written, well drafted and approved by the Government of the day. I do not think any objective observer could claim that the required domestic response was achieved by the previous administration. Admittedly, in a preface to that document, it pointed out that even when that document was finalised the international outlook and the domestic situation worsened but this conclusion should have reinforced the need for an appropriate domestic response. Instead we have had to scramble for short-term gains irrespective of the impact on the community or on the overall well-being of others, which should have been avoided.

This is the inevitable result of short-term ad hoc responses to the economic situation. In a sense, it is almost inevitable that immediate problems have to be met by immediate responses. I readily concede there is not always time for the formulation of the most thoroughgoing solution. Nevertheless, it would be at our peril that short-term expediency should become the primary determinant of political action. We have seen that process at work in the last Cabinet. Expectations have been raised now and the required discipline, which longer-term goals impose and which are necessary for any community to develop and prosper, have been absent. Too often Cabinet documentation available to the incoming Government is riddled with attempts being made through measures of expediency to satisfy simultaneously the competing and conflicting demands of different groups. That is quite obvious, just like the £3.7 million which was spent on the basis of a telephone call from the Taoiseach to the Minister of State in respect of sport and recreational facilities, when the money did not even exist. That is what happened and that is the kind of nonsense which went on on the previous occasion. There was no sanction apart from that, no Government decision, nothing.

That is not quite true, Minister.

That is not administration. The deterioration in the public finances illustrates the situation which this Government face. In the early seventies the deficits in the current budgets were no more than a few million pounds. In the years since then they have grown to hundreds of millions of pounds and this year, were it not for the action which the Government are now taking, the current deficit would have climbed to nearly a thousand million pounds, just about £20 million or £30 million short of it. No apologia on the part of Deputy Haughey, who knows the Cabinet documentation, who knows the departmental Estimates, who painstakingly went through them last January and cut them and cut them and cut them into an area of make-believe, simply because he wanted to go to the country in March or April, can change that. The Stardust disaster prevented him from going to the country. He cooked the books last January to prepare for the prospect of a general election and the Book of Estimates was, literally, a book which had no reality.

Therefore, when we took up office we were faced with the current deficit which would have climbed into nearly £1,000 million, just £20 million or £30 million short of that figure. Resolute measures to bring the deficit under cotrol were promised by the previous administration. We all recall their much publicised target of reducing Exchequer borrowing requirement to 8 per cent of GNP by 1980. They never came within an ass's roar of reducing Exchequer borrowing to around 8 per cent. I am not one who totally decries the concept in operation of budget deficiting; I am not a monetarist and I do not think the Fianna Fail Party even understand the meaning of the word "monetarism" never mind Keynesian economics. They have not a clue to judge by the way Deputy Haughey behaved here in his apologia for his economic mismanagement over the past 18 months.

Had the budget deficits been put to good effect there might have been some justification for them but these deficits were used inexcusably to have transient consumer expenditure, for by-election promises in Donegal, for unsustainable projects, for temporary relief here, there and everywhere. It was not put to productive capital investment in the community in terms of job creation. It was also used, of course, to grant a large number of pay increases, whether they were even justified or not. They were increases which were outside and in excess of the terms of the national understanding. The former Taoiseach even broke the procedures of conciliation and arbitration in his dash to get settlements in certain cases and if he wants to challenge us on that we will document it meeting by meeting. It is a horrific story. These settlements were awarded outside normal pay settlement procedures in the public sector. In the public sector, there-fore, such pay awards have increased current public expenditure and they have helped to undermine orderly industrial relations and to set an example which, on imitation, has added to costs and has eroded the job potential of our economy.

Little real effort was made to bring a realistic appreciation of available resources to bear on demands for more public services. Increasingly, the soft option of improving or extending services on the basis of borrowing has been taken, rather than raising taxation and/or trimming other less desirable activities. Generally, a policy of spend now and pay later has been pursued. Hard but necessary decisions have been deferred because of their political repercussions. Today we are faced with a legacy. The legacy is a shaping of actions of attitudes, of processes and of institutions that runs counter to the true interests of the Irish community. It will be singularly difficult, particularly with a minority Government — extraordinarily difficult — to change the community attitudes which have been fostered right through, even from the old manifesto days of 1977, but particularly fostered by none other than Deputy Haughey. That was not leadership. It was utter irresponsibility, acting as Taoiseach in this House.

The proposals now being put before the House by the Government are not simply an ad hoc response to current difficulties. They are the first, necessary steps towards getting this economy back on its feet and ready to meet the economic and social challenges of the eighties. The better management of the public finances on which this Government have now embarked must be carried through, not only, I would suggest, into 1982, but to 1983, 1984, 1985 and 1986.

The Deputy is an optimist.

Quite seriously, only about then will there be some order and rationality restored to public finances, because one cannot have massive reductions of current budget deficits over a very short number of years. It has to be phased and it will be well into the middle of the decade before the required remedial action is achieved. If not, I suggest that the future of each one of us, the future of my children and their children in time, will be put completely at risk.

There are three main areas where corrective action is needed, first of all in public finances. The control of public finances is a basic requirement of effective planning. It is pointless to plan action, or to have a national plan and expenditures over the years ahead, if the action this year is not implemented in accordance with the budget agreed by the Houses of the Oireachtas. Over the next few years, the ability of the Government to control the public finances, which have deteriorated so alarmingly over the past few years, must be restored. Budget overruns which have become the order of the day rather than the exception, must not be tolerated. That position will have to be reversed. Apart from the need to be able to control the public finances, there must be the closest examination of the cost effectiveness of existing current and capital expenditures in the interest of reducing the use of borrowed funds to finance consumption. Programmes which are not making an effective contribution to economic and social objectives in relation to their costs, or which have largely served their purpose or outlived their real usefulness to the community, must be terminated or phased out. These are harsh words, but we have no option but to face that situation.

Would the Minister of State give us examples?

The balance-of-payment deficit could reach almost £1,500 million this year, if no corrective action were taken. This amount exceeds — going on as we are to the end of the year — the combined total of the exceptionally high deficits experienced in 1979 and 1980. As was pointed out in the recent Economic Review and Outlook“This is an extremely high deficit by past Irish or current international standards”. Put simply, we as a nation are living alarmingly beyond our means. When Deputy Haughey became Taoiseach, I recall vividly the television programme, with Deputy Sile de Valera smiling broadly behind the new economic saviour of this country, not only South, but also North. He then said that that was precisely the diagnosis of the problem. He spelled it out. There was only one slight problem, he totally deferred doing anything about it.

If this were to continue — and I state this conscious that I now work as a junior Minister in the Department of Finance — I have not the slightest doubt, with the data which I have seen, that there would be massive devaluation of our currency, and this would be so inevitable that there would be no choice in this House. I am quite convinced that inflation would rocket, that economic and social problems would multiply and the loss of confidence in the economy would seriously damage its long-term development potential. Therefore, we have no option but to bring our balance of payments under control as quickly as possible. The gradual elimination of the current budget deficit will help here, but our export efforts must be intensified and our imports reduced. I strongly support the previous administration's campaigns for selling Irish and for the Guaranteed Irish campaign. That should be fully supported, because it helps with our balance of payments and protects jobs.

Then we have the question of competitiveness. In many ways this is central to our economic future. Improved competitiveness, particularly cost competitiveness, is imperative, both for the expansion of exports and for encouraging the investment required for future growth. Our major domestic internal cost, of course, is remuneration. It is vital that pay rates be consistent with the need to improve competitiveness and raise employment. In effect, increases in pay rates should and must be aligned more closely with those prevailing among our trading partners, and output per worker must be increased towards the levels obtaining in these countries. Order and rationality must be restored to industrial relations. Disruptions and stoppages of production damage our reputation as reliable suppliers and have an adverse effect on the job potential of our industries and services. Were it not for the damage already done, many more people would be employed here in Ireland today.

I do not want to sound entirely negative or harsh. We must look forward as well to the future. Corrective action is only one element of what needs to be done in taking a grip on our affairs. Positive constructive action is also a necessary complement. We have here one of the fastest growing populations in the EEC and a very high proportion of our population is under 25 years of age. Our young population is a major potential resource. Most of our younger population are well educated and possess great energy, initiative and talent. Good use must be made of these qualities. Our production and our productive apparatus must be re-orientated to meeting new trading needs, to developing new products and to using the knowledge-based technologies of the future. Government action will ensure that worthwhile investment is fostered and, while expenditure will be carefully evaluated, the public capital programme will fully support the expansion of the productive capacity and the improvement of the infrastructural facilities to the economy.

In so far as general measures cannot immediately resolve employment problems, the Government see the Youth Employment Agency as an important vehicle for supplementing these measures with special provisions. This will require separate legislation. In addition, the National Development Corporation, which will also require separate legislation, will have an important role to play in ensuring that the potential of the economy for sustainable employment is fully realised.

Obviously, corrective and developmental action will have to be welded together in a coherent strategy and implemented through effective planning. As one of the Ministers of State, I have a main concern here. I am aware that, in the past, planning has run on to the rocks, most often on to the rocks of political expediency, sometimes on to the rocks of events totally outside our control and has not lived up to its promise. We all know that. Nevertheless, there is no substitute for a planned approach to enable us to grapple with and solve the economic and social problems which are facing us at present. My aim will be the creation of a framework within which the aims and activities of the public and private sectors complement and support each other. Within that framework, effective planning will assist the State in managing its own activities in an ordered and systematic way that is consistent with overall national objectives. I do not see national planning as displacing the normal procedures of Government or the working of the market place, but rather as a far better, a more disciplined and equitable way of managing the economy. It must take on board the facts of economic life if it is to contribute to the effective and realistic management of the economy; it must involve the community, if it is to release that national dynamism of which this country is capable.

The preparation of a national plan, as promised in the Programme for Government, 1981-86, is under way in the Department of Finance. The central economic concerns of this plan are, first, the restoration of the Exchequer's financial ability to support priority economic and social programmes on which development depends; second, the creation of conditions conducive to the increased competitiveness of the economy; third, the expansion and improved efficiency of the productive capacity of the economy, particularly through the public capital programme; and fourth the promotion of individual enterprise, energy and ability in both the private and public sectors.

In essence, its aim is to create conditions conducive to sustainable economic and social development and to ensure that the opportunities arising from the creation of these conditions are made full use of to generate employment. I will elaborate on the social planning aspects later.

In drawing up their plans the Government have undertaken to consult sectoral and other interest groups so that the various programmes can benefit from the experience and expertise available to these groups. I see such consultations as a means of enabling the longer term national interest to be adequately recognised and no longer be overlooked for the sake of short-term or sectional expediency. If the talks are to be productive, it is essential that they be permeated by a perception of the real and pressing difficulties that we have to overcome in the present decade and the limits of the resources likely to be available to meet them. Indeed, the clearer and sharper that perception is, the stronger are our prospects of ultimate success. The programme for government indicates that plan projections will be based on detailed consultations with the different sectors and the organisation of the plan will be subject to review at stated intervals by a National Planning Board, presided over by the Taoiseach involving key economic and social Ministers and representatives of trade unions, employer organisations, farmers' organisations and others.

It is in the national interest that the foundation of planning for the development of the economy be put in place as quickly as possible. With that in mind, I envisage that the initial preparatory work in the Department of Finance and in other Departments will be completed without delay so that consultation with the various sectoral interests will be possible in the autumn. Following these consultations, I expect that a sound framework of planning for the management of the economy up to the middle of the decade will be available, by the end of the year, and will provide a medium-term perspective for formulating the 1982 budget.

I will deal with social planning because I have a particular interest and direct responsibility in ensuring the co-ordination of social and economic planning. I believe there is a very essential link between the economic and social dimensions of planning. The basic position to which I hold and which will be at the very foundation of all my work in this area in the period ahead is that it is fundamental that no plan for economic recovery and expansion can be successful if it is not also designed to deal with social injustice and with the anomalies of the social, legal and administrative systems as an integral part of the whole exercise.

A so-called plan that fails to balance economic growth with social advance and reform will entirely lack credibility in the eyes of the people. Such a plan will be seen as a charter for commercial advantage rather than for people's needs.

First of all, I must emphasise that it is my view that the term "social" when applied to the area of public policy should and must have an extremely broad meaning. There are those who see social policy as identical with social welfare policy, with perhaps the inclusion of health and housing. This is as erroneous a view as the widely-held opinion that the social welfare system is about unemployment and sickness benefits and nothing else.

Social policy embraces very many—— and an increasing number of the aspects and implications of the work of most of Government Departments. Surely the best recent definition of social policy is that of Professor Donnison who wrote some years ago now, in the seminal NESC Report on Social Policy, that "the social policies of Government are those of their actions which deliberately or accidentally affect the distribution of resources, status, opportunities and life changes among social groups and categories within the country, and thus help to shape the general character and equity of its social relations. Social policies are thus concerned with fairness".

In the drawing up of the national plan, social policy in this sense will have to be regarded as being of central importance. It is quite certain that the crucial planning issues of stated goals and agreed programmes of action cannot be thought of in wholly economic terms.

I believe very strongly that the major national goal of employment protection and creation will not be attained unless the plans made to acheive it are so designed as to deal effectively with the known anomalies and injustices in our social, legal and administrative system. This emphasis on justice and equity, whether a tax system or any other system, must become an integral part of the national development process. The fact that we are today discussing the prospect of a plan at a time of recession, inflation and high unemployment must not be allowed to distort our thinking. As Professor Donnison correctly stated in his NESC paper, such considerations do not mean that "the nation cannot afford equalising social policies. It was precisely in such times, during the last World War, that many countries adopted their most radically equalising policies. If such times come again Governments may be unable to retain the support and social cohesion of the governed unless they adopt similar policies".

The mere pursuit of goals spelled out in terms of economic advance — more growth, reduced deficits, a healthy balance of payments, more employment or reduced unemployment levels — simply cannot be looked to as the basis for the national consensus that we all know to be essential. The very process of economic growth will be a futile exercise if it has within itself discriminatory elements which sustain and reinforce injustice. I refer particularly to our taxation system, capital taxation and other major issues in which will have to feature in future Government policy.

There must be a clear commitment in our planning to the achievement of a genuine balance between acceptable economic criteria and the basis of a more just and equal society. I hope that this approach will permeate the economic and social strategy of this administration. After 12 years in this House, after being in Opposition, then on the Government backbenches, again in Opposition and now in Government at junior Minister level, I have no illusions about the difficulties of this approach. In all honesty I think the Taoiseach, Deputy FitzGerald, the Tanaiste, Deputy O'Leary, and a number of individuals in the Cabinet are capable of undertaking that exercise. Therefore, the prospect of change can be hoped for because it can succeed. There is a need for co-ordination of change as well.

The success and effectiveness of national social policy, particularly in the context of a plan, depends on the extent to which all aspects can be co-ordinated. The whole range of policies with social content must be seen as truly complementary. Over the years there has not been adequate co-ordination of social policy. The problems which exist in this area arise in large degree because of the ad hoc structures for planning and because of the diffused disposition of Government Departments, which change with successive administrations. We have an arbitrary division of responsibility between different Government Departments, depending almost on the whim of the Taoiseach or the Minister of the day rather than on the need to govern the country in a more effective way. There is need for detailed examination and analysis of the working of governmental structures and their efficiency in meeting national policy requirements.

There is an urgent need for a new and coherent framework for the making and carrying out of social policies. This should be done within the framework of a national planning board and the main goal of change must be to ensure that all social problems are properly dealt with and that resources are concentrated to meet acknowledged community objectives.

The scale of our current social spending is very considerable. The 1980 Estimate provided for the outlay of £1.7 billion for social services, approximately 40 per cent of total current Government expenditure or 17 per cent of GNP. Yet there is no co-ordination or planning in the spending of that vast amount of money.

Repeated research findings give proof of the existence of this situation. It is one of the reasons why poverty still exists on a relatively large scale. The Society of Saint Vincent de Paul published a report last year on the elderly and other reports were issued by the National Committee on Pilot Schemes to Combat Poverty. Going back to the days of Sister Stanislaus and the Kilkenny Conference, there is ample evidence that Government expenditure in this area very often is not put to the best possible use.

The social welfare statistics speak for themselves. At the end of 1980 the total number of recipients, including members of their families, was no less than 954,000, some 28 per cent of the total population. Of that number 416,000 were in receipt of social assistance, including almost 40,000 on supplementary welfare allowances. For the past 12 years I have earned nothing but a Deputy's salary and it horrifies me that some 277,000 child dependants live in families receiving social welfare payments. This is the problem with which we must deal by ensuring an adequate input to coherent social and economic planning. It must evolve in a direction which can make a reality of the political rhetoric of full employment and social justice which we politicians proclaim. Social and economic policy must be rooted in the realities of life in our country.

We must bring forward policy initiatives which, as stated in the NESC report:

"prepare the way for what will later become the dominant theme of social policy: the equalisation of opportunities, living conditions, status and power among the classes of an urban, industrial society. That will call for the replacement of stigmatising selectivity now operating at the bottom of the social scale by other forms of selectivity concentrated more often at the top of the scale to ensure that those best able to pay bear a larger share of tax burdens and get no exorbitant share of social benefits."

If our social plan can incorporate that sentiment it will have been well worth while assisting in Government. This House has the essential ingredients to succeed in that direction.

I wish to congratulate the Minister on his appointment. We were both elected to the House on the same day and I wish him well.

The Minister said earlier that Fianna Fail in Government had cooked the books. We did not. The Estimates were there to be seen. We are now being given projected figures for the likely state of finances at the end of the year, but it is still too early to say what the total deficit will be.

It is easy now to see why this budget was introduced. It was to pay for the schemes outlined by Fine Gael during the election campaign. The budget is now considered necessary to pay for some of these schemes. Others will not be implemented until April and then we may hear that finances will not allow of their implementation at all.

We were accused of not coming to the aid of hard-pressed mortgage holders by providing a mortgage relief. On each occasion that the mortgage rate was raised to a high level we paid a subsidy costing millions. Today it has been announced that the mortgage subsidy is to cease from 1 September. That will increase the average mortgage by £20 a month.

It has also come to my notice that one must now be married to have a loan approved by the local authority. When I was in the Department of the Environment it was our policy to make loans available to people who were about to get married. There was a problem in that many people had to go into flats before they could be rehoused by the local authority. Now I see more people coming onto the local authority housing list. That will be a disaster and this is a very bad move.

The Minister for the Environment said that he would seek other ways to raise local authority revenue. Some members of the Opposition, when they were on this side of the House, were in favour of reintroducing rates on houses. Will this happen next? Will rates come in through the back door by the introduction of a levy on garbage collection and other essential services? I would ask the Minister to spell out the situation in relation to the other ways of raising revenue. To reintroduce rates on houses or to charge for essential services is not the right way. It would give rise to a further substantial rise in the cost of living. When I was in the Department of the Environment some of these proposals were put to me but I refused to entertain them because of the consequences they would have.

Motor taxation has been reintroduced and between that, the VAT on petrol and the increased cost of petrol it will cost the average motorist an extra £10 per week. A car is now an essential item for many people. To pay for a house and a car an average person will now have to pay £15 a week extra.

The increases in social welfare are welcome but what good is 5p per week for a child? In relation to public sector employment, do the Government's proposals mean that there will be a cutback in the recruitment of gardaí and other personnel? I would like the Minister to explain that.

We were accused of spending our way out of our difficult period in Government. There were some options open to us. We could have cut back on capital investment, on housing, on factories and on roads, but that would have created major unemployment. Across the water one sees the effect of such measures and nobody would like to see that happening here. Ours is an open economy and we saw the best way to get us out of the difficulties as being to spend our way, with capital projects to create employment and a base for productive purposes. We are well over the worst of the recession now and when the time came for us to be able to go ahead with our economic plans we had in train the economy would have been well able to take off.

The Minister of State, Deputy B. Desmond, stated earlier that we gave way on public sector pay and on many other things. When the Deputy was on this side of the House he wanted to know what we were doing about numerous disputes and blamed us for the Posts and Telegraphs dispute that went on for a couple of months. Neither the Labour Party nor the Fine Gael Party agreed with our handling of the disputes but now when they are in Government they see the difficulties. I am glad about that.

We were often placed in a position where we had to look at the situation in the light of the capital available. In relation to grants and housing in general, I would have liked to have done what the Minister has done but the capital was not available. We made the capital available to us available for new house purchasers as we wanted to take them out of the flats and the mobile homes. I hope that the housing programme we built up will not be neglected and we will keep a close watch on it to that end. Also close to the Finanna Fail Government's heart was to see the spread of houses throughout rural Ireland so that villages would be built up and not neglected. That programme was in train when I was in the Department. I emphasised that aspect to local authorities, that that programme should continue rather than crowding people into major urban areas because it was bad economically and socially.

I should like to deal now with the overall effect of this budget on the economy. For example, what effect will it have on jobs? The PRSI contribution is about to be increased in the near future and there are other levies about to be introduced. VAT on building materials is about to be increased which will have an adverse affect also. I cannot foresee in the programme outlined in the budget where there will be any increase in employment. In my opinion rather will there be a decrease. Companies about to engage extra staff will examine the situation more closely because their overheads will increase dramatically, such as telephone charges, postal charges, petrol, diesel and so on. All of these will increase other costs even further. Furthermore building costs will rise dramatically. I cannot foresee anything else because the economy is now being fuelled for a take-off of that nature.

The real snag will arise in regard to pay because I anticipate that for the average wage earner on £80 a week the measures now being introduced and those to be implemented on 1 September next will mean £20 a week taken from that man's pocket. Certainly that will be the reality for anybody owning a car, paying off a mortgage and purchasing all the other items being increased in this budget. Therefore, what will be the situation in regard to renegotiation of a national wage agreement? I hope I am wrong but it is my opinion that it will be very difficult to renegotiate a national wage agreement, this difficulty being occasioned by these increased charges to be imposed on the wage earner.

The Minister for the Environment states that he will initiate a housing finance agency. I should like to know what will be the terms of reference of that agency, where the money will come from. I shall be particularly interested to know, because I also examined this question and was unable to come up with an answer without taking money from other institutions. That is the reality of the situation. Possibly one could use a pensions fund for that purpose, but then does one take the money from pensions funds or other lending institutions, robbing Peter to pay Paul? Those are some of the exercises I played around with.

Bring money back from abroad.

One can take any turn one likes but, no matter how one views it, it is robbing Peter to pay Paul. One can call it a new organisation if one likes but one must take it from another organisation already in this lending business. I shall indeed be interested to learn of the proposals in that direction.

I notice that in regard to mortgages there is now a proviso entered with regard to local authority loans to persons contemplating marriage, that they will be unable to get a local authority loan either to build or purchase a house. I know many people contend that one must have the cage before getting the bird. One might have the bird now but will have no cage, because that will be the situation if these proposals are implemented. That was the slogan in the country — that one had the bird but had not the cage, yet others had the cage but had not the bird. Very few will now have the cage.

The Deputy would be a hard bird to cage anyway.

This housing finance agency sounds very interesting but I am afraid it will mean robbing Peter to pay Paul. I should very much like to know from where the money will emanate. I estimated the Fine Gael proposals on housing to cost approximately £180 million. Others estimated nearer £220 million. When I was in the Department I should very much have liked to introduce house improvement grants and so on but the money made available to the Government was put into new housing, providing homes for those people getting married and others in need of it. The situation now will mean that there will be an increase in the waiting lists for local authority housing because it is my information that this proviso is about to be inserted and implemented immediately. Certainly that will have an adverse effect on housing generally.

Then we note that the rate of VAT will rise from 10 to 15 per cent, covering all items and especially those used in the building construction industry. This must increase substantially the cost of houses and there is no point in pretending otherwise. I should have thought that at least those materials would have been excluded because it will create further hardship on people trying to build new houses.

Another matter also brought to my attention is that sports/community halls and sports complex grants have been abandoned, something that has come as a great shock to the many community projects all over the country. That was a very bad move on the part of the Government. Indeed nobody did more to help youth organisations and sports complexes than my colleague, Deputy Tunney, the Leas-Cheann Comhairle.

Will the Deputy tell us about the empty files?

I am talking about the present situation. Our programme was well known.

Where are the empty files?

There were no empty files. I want to assure the Deputy——

Where was the Deputy at Question Time?

Please, Deputies, no interruptions.

I want to assure the Deputy that he benefited in his area from those grants also.

I beg to differ with the Deputy.

Acting Chairman

Please, Deputy Connolly has the floor. No interruptions, please.

The carpet has been pulled from beneath Deputy McMahon. He is very annoyed. I know he has every reason to be. But that is the situation now confronting people and for which they must pay. The people were led to believe from the financial package put forward by the Fine Gael Party that these expenses would be met and there would be no increased taxation. But I am glad to say I warned the people in Laois/Offaly. I am glad to say also that that constituency accepted my advice when I told them that they would pay and pay for it as they never did before. The present situation is that the chickens are coming home to roost.

That is the position at the moment. The people of Laois-Offaly knew the facts of the situation but I regret to say in another constituency they did not believe this was the situation. They thought they would get a bonanza, that the money would be delivered by the postman through the door and that they had nothing to do but open the envelope. They find now that everything is different. Everybody now knows that all those promises have to be paid for. Next January they will get another dose of medicine.

Acting Chairman

The Deputy's time is now up.

There was no need to bring in this budget.

There was no need for the general election.

The budget was brought in to pay for the manifesto. As a junior Minister in the previous Government I knew well that the projects in the Fine Gael manifesto could not be met. I warned the people in Laois-Offaly they would have to be paid for.

A lot has been written and a lot has been said over the past two days since the budget was introduced. The public will feel the impact of this budget in the coming weeks, particularly from 1 September next. I fear next winter will bring much disappointment and a grave set-back for our economy. Speakers during the past two days and on budget night have dealt with many important aspects of the budget. They have also dealt with the scenario which led up to the budget and the scene which was painted. On the opening night of the debate I referred to the balance of payments position and the independent economic forecasters who outlined the great improvement there would be in 1982.

There has been a lot of talk about the budget deficit. I agree with my colleague who has just spoken that this budget was unnecessary and those measures were unnecessary at this time. This was done for pure political reasons and, as a consequence, all our people, but especially the young, will suffer during the coming winter.

I want to dwell at length tonight on inflation and employment and to remind the Government, even at this late stage, how important those factors are. I want, especially, to remind the Fine Gael Party and the Labour Party of their pre-election commitments. I want to remind the Independents that they now have the opportunity to say that they reject monetarism in this country and they reject inflationary policies such as this budget typifies.

The budget is a grave set-back for our economy, which was nursed along through a very difficult world recession by Fianna Fail. Every act of ours was geared towards availing of the improvement in the world recession which we are told will come about in the second half of this year and with greater impact in 1982. All our efforts were designed to ensure that when we reached that recovery our economy would take off as a result of our policies. We are proud that we succeeded in bringing our economy through that very difficult world recession with far less damage to it than older and more developed states in the European Cummunity.

The most serious aspect of the budget is the fuelling of inflation. The Government justified the budget by referring to the deficit and the level of borrowing, but they have completely ignored the impact of the budget on inflation. Surely, in any commentator's assessment, in any politicians assessment, that merits serious attention and also does its impact on our economy. Our inflation rate at present is about 17 per cent, which is for too high, but on the admission of the Minister for Finance — he said on Tuesday night that the budget would add 3 per cent to it — this will now go up to 20 per cent. We believe that with the knock-on effect of VAT and the ESB and CIE charges not included, it could be closer to 22 per cent or 23 per cent. I read an article in one of this evenings papers which vindicates the figure I am now talking about. This article was not written by a Fianna Fail person.

Let us hear from the Government, the economists and all the commentators, who have been complaining about the gravity of our economic situation, how they defend the steep rise in inflation and how this can be good for the economy. The Taoiseach this morning spoke at some length about reducing inflation. He said the biggest and most permanent reduction in unemployment would be through a reduction in our inflation rate to EEC levels as quickly as posible. All of that is mere pious chant. By this budget he put up our inflation rate to almost record levels. If his reasoning of this morning is correct, this will lead to the biggest and most permanent increase in unemployment.

I want to go back for a moment to the Fine Gael programme for the election, in which they said that rising prices and costs were destroying the livelihood of our people and increasing the cost of our products to a point where they could compete at home against imports. They also said that this, in turn, was causing employment to drop in Ireland and this inflation was largely caused by Government mismanagement. They also said that these cost increases had affected farm incomes most of all, because the prices secured for agricultural produce were set by the needs of our EEC partners. I want to remind the Minister for Finance, who, I am sure, was involved, and the whizz kids who prepared that document that that is from the Fine Gael programme.

What about the Labour Party? What did they say before the election? They predicted the inflation rate would be 18 per cent for 1981, but that is before this budget. They said in their programme that the results of that 18 per cent inflation rate would be further inevitable cuts in living standards, a further loss of competitiveness and, therefore, more redundancies. Now the Labour Party in Government have added substantially to the inflation rate they forecast.

The two Government parties have deliberately fuelled this inflation and I believe it to be only the first instalment because, as Deputy Connolly said, we shall have another hugh hike in expenditure taxes or indirect taxation to finance the income tax package next year. So much for the Taoiseach's broadcast to the nation last Friday when he said that the measures being taken next year to offset the taxes imposed now will help. He was indicating that whatever measures were being taken now would be shortlived and compensatory factors would accrue in January or whenever the budget was introduced. Of course that is not correct. Today at Question Time, during some of his evasive answering, the Minister admitted that the cost of introducing the promised packages would be substantial and obviously further indirect taxation will be brought in then.

What about all the propaganda of the election promises and the deceitful and misleading advertisement of the cheque through the door almost next morning? Instead the people have got an additional average weekly budget of about £12 — so much for the £9.60 through the door promise. Instead of the postman delivering it the VAT collector, the indirect taxation and the petrol pump will take away an average of £12 from the average weekly budget.

The Tanaiste was very vocal in Opposition over the years about the necessity for centralised bargaining and for taking cognisance of industrial relations problems when Finance Ministers are introducing budgets. I wonder what comments the Tanaiste made on this budget when it was being introduced by the Minister for Finance. It would be interesting to know. Centralised bargaining has been a feature of our economy for more than a decade now. Introduced originally with the aid of Fianna Fáil in office, carried on by successive Governments, a new concept of it was reached in recent times with the advent of the national understanding. During Deputy Haughey's time as Taoiseach greater consultation took place with the social partners, the employers, the unions and the farm organisations, than ever before. I believe that is the way forward. With a young, growing population like ours that type of co-operation can only help.

What effect will this budget have on bargaining of any sort, on centralised bargaining especially and above all on industrial relations? Perhaps it is true that the Government have already washed their hands of industrial relations problems. Today I was sorry to have to ask the particular Minister of State a supplementary question, because it was far removed from her portfolio, about the problems now facing social welfare beneficiaries. Two nights ago Deputy O'Malley said that shortly Dublin people would need photographs to remind them of what buses are like. Since the Government came in not one bus has moved in Dublin city and provincial services have been curtailed. I am sorry Deputy Byrne is not present but for three or four weeks he has been raising a problem affecting his people in north Dublin because of the non-functioning of lifts. I believe the Government have already washed their hands of industrial relations. I think the Minister for Labour and for the Public Service is already diving for cover — he carries much of my sympathy — because of the actions of the Minister for Finance now. His problems, great though they may be at present will only grow when the full impact of this severe budget is felt. I believe the Government are anxious to wash their hands of industrial relations, and this is understandable although I shall have some comments to make on this because I was often at the receiving end of the magical formulas that they could and would produce. There is no evidence that they have any answer other than the Minister saying that he intends to introduce legislation of which we do not yet know the details. By legislation alone they will not wipe out industrial relations problems; there must be human concern and human concern is sadly lacking in the budget presented here.

The measures introduced will hit living standards very severely. One must be concerned with comments being made already by employers and trade unions in the early lead-up to what should be renegotiation of a national understanding. I hope a national understanding will be achieved. Some may say that collective bargaining or centralised bargaining may have outlived its usefulness: I do not share that view; I believe the alternatives are too dangerous and that a free-for-all would only harm industrial relations. The Government have an obligation to consider how much they are fuelling inflation. Certainly, this Government have set out to do it in a big way.

A paltry £8 million is being given to agriculture. This is no compensation for the probable £80 million or £90 million being taken out of agriculture by the increases in VAT and taxes. People must realise that. The motor industry is being crucified. It is a hard word to use but the only one that will describe it. About five elements of motoring are severely affected by the budget. The employment content in the motor assembly industry is substantial as it is also in the case of accessories, tyres, etc. These will all suffer setbacks because of the enormity of the impositions in the budget. I understand we will now make our private vehicles easily the most expensive in Europe despite our heavy reliance on private transport especially in surburban and rural areas. What are the alternatives in surburban Dublin at present if one has no private transport when no public transport is available?

I understand from today's papers that ESB charges are to go up by 25 per cent. Yesterday, I was amazed to hear Deputy Kelly, Minister for Industry, Commerce and Tourism commenting on the aids being given to industry by the dropping of the impost on hydrocarbon oil. It was very interesting. When one adds the ESB charge, the indirect taxation — petrol and VAT particularly in the case of industry — and telephone charges, the small relief being given on oil is of little significance in reducing costs when they are increased so substantially in other ways.

Commentators have been extremely critical about the blow dealt to tourism. It was a shattering blow. We are all aware that in the early months of this year tourism was encouraging and promising but, due to unfortunate political events, it received a setback. Now, it has sustained this shattering blow and the consequences for all the different operations of tourism are very serious, employment being a very important feature of that industry.

Although few details were given in the budget speech, we understand that investment by semi-State bodies is to be cut back by £135 million. We have some scepticism about this figure but if it is correct we wonder how it can be reconciled with the comments of the Tánaiste yesterday morning in this House when he said he was committed to expanding the State sector to provide the maximum number of jobs. One must doubt his sincerity. The budget curtails funds to semi-State bodies. The Tánaiste spoke at length about the National Development Corporation, to which we are committed. He spoke about pouring millions of pounds into it but he did not refer to the fact that his colleague, the Minister for Finance, was reducing the moneys available for other semi-State bodies. As a Government we supported State-sponsored bodies. We believe in using them also as employment vehicles.

All of the bad news in the budget has been filtering through in bits and pieces. Today the Minister for the Environment announced that the 1 per cent mortgage interest subsidy, which we had introduced to keep down the cost of housing for young people, is to be abolished. The evening papers today estimate the extra cost to married couples as £20 per month. When one adds up all the extra costs one realises the figure is very high.

The £4,000 grant for first-time house buyers is being restricted to married couples. In my view single working people are entitled to their own homes and the incentives we gave them in this connection also gave a significant boost to the construction industry. The parties who have for so long preached equality are discriminating now against single people who wish to buy their own homes. They will not be given the same facilities as are given to married couples. Some members of the other parties have been vocal during the years about equality and we wonder how they feel about this conservative decision taken by this conservative Government. Of course it will depress the building industry and will affect employment. If we take it that 22 per cent of house purchases are by single people, we can see that there will be a considerable reduction in the amount of building work. When one considers in addition the effect of the VAT increases on building materials it is obvious that there will be greater unemployment. In the past the Tánaiste had many comments to make on what he called our lack of attention to the building and construction industry. In his speech he referred to a huge growth in the unemployment figures by the end of 1981 as a result of our policies. I wonder if these decisions were designed to ensure that the figures mentioned by the Tánaiste will be reached?

This afternoon the Minister for the Environment said local councils should be encouraged to raise their own forms of finance. Is this introducing rates by the back door? Is charging for garbage collection and other services and are the raffle and lotteries another way of introducing rates by the back door? We know what happened with regard to car tax. Will the people have to pay more for local services? While the Minister gave his personal support for the restoration of rates, his party said otherwise. However, it appears the Government are reneging on that promise also. By one means or another they will introduce rates.

I listened with some interest to the Minister for Industry, Commerce and Tourism when he spoke about the public service. It was a very entertaining speech but it was not very enlightened or comprehensive and there was no content in what he said. He made many light-hearted points, but this is not the time or the place for that. These are difficult times and the measures taken by the Government will set back the progress of the nation. The Minister referred to the growth of 31,000 jobs in the public service but he did not say who was involved. Was he saying we should not have had more gardai, more prison officers, more teachers, more health services and people to work those services, was he saying we should not have had more people in the semi-State bodies? That is where the bulk of those posts arose. The Minister had a set on the public service for a long time when he was in Opposition and obviously he still has it in Government. On Tuesday night the leader of our party pointed out some sectors of the public service where he had personal experience of the commitment of the officials. I will not dwell on that except to say that the public servants seem to be a popular group to attack. Of course, people in the public service have not got the opportunity or the right to reply to the same extent that others have. There is now an embargo on further recruitment.

I omitted earlier to mention the Department of Posts and Telegraphs. Previous Governments neglected the area of communications but we saw the importance of this sector. More people were taken on, advanced technology was introduced, more telephones were installed and this rate of connection can be continued because of the excellent work of Deputy Reynolds when he was Minister. I hope this Government will not do anything to impede the great progress being made in this area.

The Minister said that greater emphasis must be placed on the productive sector to give more jobs and I agree with that. However, our young population are entitled to improved services. I will give some statistics. In the Community Report for April 1981, Ireland is shown as having the lowest numbers of civil servants per head of the population of any country included in the report — 2 per cent of the population, compared with percentages ranging from 2.2 to 3.7. It is disappointing for fathers and mothers of families to be denied this opportunity for employment of their families. I heard the Minister say there would be ample opportunity in the civil service for young people, because of wastage, retirements, and so on. That is a disgraceful suggestion for any Member of this House to make. It is no substitute for useful public service recruitment. I agree there are some areas that are overstaffed and underworked, but there are many areas where there is need for recruitment.

Emphasis has been placed on public service pay. It is a big change from the suggestions made by members of the Government when they were over here. Their comments then were very different. I should like to stress that the greatest increases in public service pay were as a result of national understandings and through recruitment. An efficient public service is needed and the provision of jobs must take priority. The Fianna Fáil Government gave tremendous sums of money to the IDA, one of our most successful State agencies, whom I must congratulate for past achievements and for what I know they will do in the future. At this moment we on this side do not know which Minister is in control of that agency. There is confusion even within the IDA about that. They are not sure whether it is the Tánaiste or Deputy Kelly who is in control. The Government should make this clear immediately because it is essential that this efficient and successful agency should not be confused in this way.

We understand there is to be a curb on public sector pay. Meetings are to be held with the associations and unions in the service and the C and A scheme is to be discussed. The C and A has served this country well and any Government exercise on the lines contemplated would throw it back to 1975. I do not believe the public will condemn the Fianna Fáil Government for having recruited extra gardai, teachers, nurses and other health service employees. They were needed.

Neither Labour nor Independent Deputies have given adequate explanations why they should allow this savage deflationary budget to go through tonight. This is their last chance to stop it. It is not in the interests of the ordinary working people or of so many of our young people who are looking for jobs. This is the type of deflationary policy which has done so much harm in an island not far from us where such policies have contributed to soaring unemployment and lack of jobs. Here it will have the same effect leading, perhaps, to a return to emigration, if that were available. Therefore, there is an obligation on those Deputies to examine carefully how they should vote in this, their final opportunity.

Where are the food subsidies we were told by the Coalition parties would bring down the rate of inflation? Where are Labour's promised transport and fuel subsidies? The Labour Party promised all sorts of capital taxation, levies on banks and so on. Tonight those Deputies are being given an opportunity to vote down this budget which will be remembered for its contribution to higher unemployment and many other evils.

At Question Time today the Minister for Finance referred to the Employment Guarantee Fund and I should like to put the record straight. It was introduced as part of the 1979 National Understanding and included contributions from employers and the Government. A tripartite committee was set up consisting of the social partners and the Government. In this years national understanding the Government contributed £10 million. Employers refused to contribute but after long and tedious negotiations we succeeded in getting a contribution form the employers towards vulnerable industries — Brussels did not allow us to contribute to high employment industries. We succeeded in having a programme prepared which would be acceptable to Brussels and to the employer organisations. That took considerable time. A sum of £10 million had to be provided, and because of technical problems legislation had to be put through the Oireachtas. Though the present Minister put it through it was ready and waiting for him.

In the first national understanding a commitment was given to provide sports complexes and other facilities for the young. As I said earlier today, we should pay a tribute to Deputy Tunney for his efforts in this respect. He will be remembered for his great work in the Department of Education. However, just as the Government have reneged on their commitments to youth employment, they have also reneged on promises in regard to sports complexes, and no brandishing of files will excuse them for reneging on our young people, particularly when we see so much trouble, riots and so on, across the water. We were the first Government to make any worthwhile contribution to the development of youth facilities.

Hear, hear.

We have always put people and employment first. The Government now are more concerned about sums, about the balance sheet, than they are about our people and their welfare. Our policy was to reduce the current deficit over a period with the minimum possible hurt to our people. It must commence at the most appropriate time. We say that the most appropriate time for these harsh measures, harsher than anybody anticipated they would be, is not now.

When is it?

This morning the Taoiseach put forward what was obviously a most inadequate defence of the budget. He keeps talking about a crisis. His model seems to be a secretary of the Department of Finance 40 years ago who said what the people wanted was a good fright and the apostles of expansionism would see where this country stood.

It has frightened off investors.

It certainly has. We repeat our position. There is a recession of unprecedented severity, but there is no grave economic crisis peculiar to ourselves. On the contrary. We have been coming through it in better shape than most, thanks to the policies adopted by Fianna Fáil.

The Leader of the Opposition referred the House to the July OECD Economic Outlook and specifically the passage on Ireland which states that, with the type of policies Fianna Fáil were pursuing, the prospects for next year were reasonably good, indicating a substantial drop in the rate of inflation and the balance of payments deficit, and that unemployment at least would not worsen. If people want a fair and impartial assessment of where we stand, they should read the OECD Economic Outlook and what it has to say about Ireland. This morning the Taoiseach had no answer to that except to refer rather lamely to sentences of a general character in the introduction. If the OECD thought they had special application to us, they would have stated so, but they did not.

The Taoiseach showed this morning that he is a true reactionary living in the past. My definition of a reactionary is one who wants to restore the past and who does not fully appreciate how the world has changed. He is fond of quoting the financial rectitude of the second Coalition Government who left money in the kitty on leaving office. As Deputies will remember, that was a time of great economic stagnation and mass emigration. From his comments this morning he seems to regard the past 50 years as a model for today.

The sixties were an exceptional period of economic growth and development throughout the western world. The 40 years previous to that were different from today in one vital respect. Through emigration we had a declining population which meant that, relatively speaking, services and infrastructures were adequate to our needs. We believe the people have no desire to return to the stagnation and emigration years, or the the conservative policies of many of those years. What happened in the seventies to all developed countries — and there was no allusion to it in the Taoiseach's speech — was the ten-fold increase in oil prices in two steps. If there were not to be a massive slump in living standards and employment a recycling of oil funds — and that means borrowing debt — was essential.

These are the realities and yet the Taoiseach talks about bringing realities to the people. It is all very reminiscent of a senior and respected civil servant in the Department of Finance in 1950 who, according to Dr. Fanning's admirable history, was critical of Marshall Aid as being too generous when countries should have been forced, he said, to face the realities of the situation, when expansionist ideas, however admirable, were completely out of touch with the reality of the financial position.

Is that what we want today when we think about our young people? All politicans have been saying that 50 per cent of our young people are under the age of 25 years. They are our national asset. They are our investment in the future. With its growing population, this country needs to make full use of its borrowing capacity to build up jobs. I want to give the lie to those commentators on the other side who indicated that our credit rating was in jeopardy. That is not in accordance with the facts. We have a very high credit rating. Of course the borrowing will have to be repaid. I see no harm in the concept of asking the young to repay part of the cost of providing them with education, housing, jobs and recreational facilities. It is much better that these facilities should be provided even at some cost than that they should be without them. A Government who, by their policies, leave them without those facilities will be remembered by the young people in the future.

The Taoiseach denied that this is a monetarist budget. This is only the first instalment of Fine Gael's economic strategy. Obviously the Taoiseach is aiming at reducing the money supply by reducing the budget deficit and foreign borrowing. The main feature of Fine Gael's programme is their income tax programme.

I fear that the policies now being pursued are the policies of people like Milton Friedman, the guru of monetarism. Surely that is not what we want at this time. It is not what our young people need.

We need only look at the position in the other part of our country and across the water to see the impact of the measures taken there. Remember the path blazed by the British Government was that of increasing expenditure taxes, cutting income tax, cutting further expenditure and borrowing. What are the effects today? I would ask Members of the House to judge for themselves what those effects are. Those who have the opportunity of voting on this budget for the last time should consider what the impact of the measures now being introduced could be.

It was interesting to note that this morning the Taoiseach had to admit what our leader stated yesterday, that is, that the budget achieves remarkably little in terms of cutting the budget deficit or even the level of borrowing. Look at the cost to the community. Look at the imposition on the ordinary man and woman, on the householder, the housewife, the motorist, the ordinary people. He admitted it achieves remarkably little. He drew the conclusion from that, that it is not a deflationary monetarist budget. In order to achieve this negligible result, the Government have raised substantially the estimate of the hypothetical budget deficit and borrowing without providing any detailed justification. To bring it back down to the likely actual outcome, substantial taxation is being imposed. It is extremely heavy taxation and nevertheless it will raise £77 million only.

Let us think for a moment about the Fine Gael programme. Perhaps three and a half times that amount and more may have to be raised in indirect taxes to pay for the income tax reforms promised for next January. One wonders will they come. If they do come, the cost, if borne in indirect taxation, will make a further substantial impact on the Irish taxpayer. It will continue to fuel inflation. One must wonder what these measures are intended to do. I believe they are deliberately intended as a purely political exercise.

Yesterday one of the Taoiseach's Ministers claimed with great rectitude that as Ministers they were putting their political heads on the block because their Taoiseach and leader said that if one of the Financial Resolutions was defeated he would dissolve the Dáil and call a general election. I regard this as a certain type of blackmail to try to frighten people, but not Fianna Fáil. All members of Fianna Fáil would be happy at the prospect of a general election tomorrow, next week, or whenever. Blackmailing some Independents is a most unscrupulous act by any Taoiseach, but it was obviously done for this reason. We argued that the budget was not necessary. Our various speakers over the past few days have substantiated without doubt that argument. Many economic commentators questioned the necessity for it and the harsh measures it proposes. VAT with its impact on so many aspects of industry becomes a reality on 1 September but increased costs in industry are enormous. The smaller allowance given is of little or no significance. All this leads to the major problem of rising unemployment.

There is no joy for the young school leaver of an opportunity in the public sector. This is the real area for producing jobs. Our population is growing at a high rate. The labour market is growing and will be for a considerable time. It is important that in the productive areas of the public service and in areas such as the security of people and property there are sufficient people employed. The Minister seemed to imply that I was saying that this was the only area of recruitment. I agree with him when he said that the productive sector is the most important one and that it was important that the IDA be given every facility and encouragement. However, young people are now deprived of the opportunity of an opening in the public service. What does that mean for school leavers? Increased unemployment, lack of job opportunity, less spending money and activity generally. There will be a drop in general economic activity, soaring costs in industry and little or no chance of expansion for further employment. These are offshoots of the severe budget we are bringing to a conclusion.

Inflation will be of the order of 22 to 23 per cent due to the Government's actions. What will the worker's attitude be? Far be it from me to incite people or produce problems for any government from any source, but questions will be asked about the drop in living standards, what compensation is being allowed, if any, and if it can lead to further industrial unrest. We are proud that over the past 18 months our record in that area was great. It now appears that this Government are shying away completely and are not having any concern with industrial relations. If services are not available they are not concerned. It is incumbent on a Government to provide services, whether a bus service or the payment of social welfare benefits. These are serious considerations.

The Minister may well be involved in efforts to get a national understanding and I sincerely hope he is successful. There is no doubt that this budget makes his task substantially more difficult than it would otherwise have been. I do not say it was easy in the recent past but, taking a leaf from the Tánaiste's book — and the Minister may like to read the leaves I talk about — he consistently said that the greatest impact today on industrial relations was measures taken by the Minister for Finance. I wonder if he commented on that to the present Minister.

The national understanding expires for most people at the end of November. This morning we saw comments from both sides and their approach to a new understanding. The action of the Government has made it more difficult to continue with centralised bargaining, which has been a successful feature of the national understanding. There are those who say national understandings are too dear and too expensive, but the alternative may well be far more harmful and costly in the long term because of the unrest which would be caused.

Whether one lives in Dublin or the country, the motor car has become essential for most people, particularly those in busless Dublin. The cost of an average family car is now expected to increase by £10 per week. What with the hike in petrol, the VAT increase, the 10 per cent increase in excise tax and the restoration of motor tax, it will be costly to run a car. I believe the restoration of motor tax is the most upsetting item for the motorist. Our decision was a wise one. We were particularly wise to confine it to cars of 16 horse power or less. There is no doubt but that it encouraged people to use a slightly smaller car. This was done with some viciousness and malice, as if to say we will show the people that road tax should never have been removed from cars. That was behind the thinking in introducing this measure, among a combination of impositions on the motorist. It will affect employment in the industry and in the accessory industry; and as a Corkman, I have an interest in both of those. They are both big employers.

The increased costs will mean higher industry costs, building industry costs, have a tourism impact and so on. The Minister for Finance is one of the decent and honourable members of the Government, but he has been asked to carry the can to try to bring the country back to an era that had been gone for so long because of the approaches of successive Fianna Fáil Governments. We will oppose every single step he tries to set it back, particularly at a time when the population is growing and the greatest asset we have is our young people. We will oppose the Government every step of the way. It is incumbent on every Member of the House, realising this is their last chance to vote on the introduction of monetarist policies, to stop it. If this measure goes through it may well be too late and the people who will remember will be the young growing population in whom the parties opposite have pretended to be so interested and to care so much about.

It is a pleasure for me to have the opportunity of concluding this budget debate. I thank those on all sides for their contributions to the debate, the standard of which was particularly high. This high standard may be attributable to the imposition of a time limit and, consequently, more concentration on the issues than has been the case in debates of this kind in the past when contributions dragged on for weeks and even for months without in some cases any conclusion being reached. In this case the time allowed may have been a little too short given the exigencies of the situation but the standard was very high.

Deputy Fitzgerald asked me to give the basis on which we projected that the budget deficit for 1982 would be £1,500 million as against the opening budget deficit projected by him this year of £515 million. I am very glad that the Deputy asked that question because that very issue is central to the whole approach of the Government on this occasion.

When we addressed the public finances at our first meetings — and the House will be aware from reports that we had very many and very long meetings in this regard in preparation for this budget — we were shocked by what we found. In opposition we had predicted that the opening deficit for this year would turn out to be a lot more than the Minister's projection of £515 million, a figure which he had bravely adhered to up to the end only to be disproved by the Exchequer returns published within two days of his leaving office. During the campaign we had predicted that the deficit would be about £800 million but the Exchequer returns made available to us and the information that was available in the Department as to committments which were entered into and about which we were not aware in some cases and in other cases not aware of the full cost while in Opposition, indicated that the likely deficit would be about £950 million. We were shocked by this lack of control of Government finances and by the lack of seriousness on the part of the Fianna Fáil Government in respect of the estimates they put forward originally. They arbitrarily chose figures for certain services which implied policy changes that would enable them to live within the revised estimates. They set the figures but they did not make the policy changes immediately afterwards. As a result the budget had gone completely out of line during the year. This was painfully obvious in the Exchequer returns for the first six months. Bad as all of that was, what really spurred the Government into immediate action was the projection of these figures into 1982. It was the really serious situation that would occur in 1982 if action were not taken that was the most effective determinant of our decision to act immediately.

The assumptions on which the projection of £1,500 million was made by people in the public service who are competent professionally to make such projections was first, that the present volume of public services would be maintained. There was no assumption of new services being introduced but the present volume would include the new services that had been introduced in the first six months of 1981. Secondly, there was the assumption that the real value of social welfare payments would be maintained. In other words the increase in those payments was also projected into the figure on the expenditure side. On the revenue side there was the assumption that there would be no change in the tax rates or in the tax allowances and given a certain rate of inflation, that implied a certain amount of revenue by way of buoyancy. The assumptions therefore, on which this £1,500 million budget deficit for 1982 were reached were technically neutral assumptions as I have just indicated. It is on that basis, then, that the calculation was accepted by us as being entirely valid.

There are a number of facts which do not come to light on the face of these assumptions but which were very important in creating a prospective situation for 1982 far worse than the one which obtained this year. I would just mention three of those which by their very nature make the 1982 situation in prospect far worse than the 1981 situation in actuality. First there was the additional debt service. Trends in 1981 indicate that debt in 1982 will be far greater than in 1981 because a lot of extra money will have been borrowed by the time we reached next year simply because of the very big deficit we have this year. It is projected that £400 million more in debt service costs would fall on the Government in 1982 than would be the case in 1981 mainly because of the borrowing in 1981.

Secondly, the previous Government for reasons best known to themselves decided to bring forward into 1981 corporation tax that would normally be collected in 1982. This amounted to £66 million.

That was in the budget.

It makes a difference to the deficit for 1982 because it increases the apparent revenue in 1981 but is not available in 1982. Consequently, the deficit for 1982 is £66 million more than for 1981 as a result of the deficit for 1981 having being artificially narrowed by the bringing forward of this revenue.

Look at the smiles on the faces of the wise old men on the other side after bringing us into this situation.

The third item is the fact that a lot of new services, many of them not having been sanctioned in the Dáil and without Estimate provision being made for them, were agreed to by the last Government in the run up to the general election campaign. These included a deferral of major increases in prices for certain items which would cost very substantial sums of money, the introduction of mortgage subsidies and ESB subsidies. All of those were not apparent and would not have their full effect because they would apply for only part of the year in 1981 but in 1982 they would have a full annual effect.

For these reasons we concluded that if no action is taken the deficit for 1982 would be £1,500 million, a very serious figure, far higher a current deficit than that obtaining in any othere European country to our knowledge, and maybe as a proportion of GNP twice or more the deficit obtaining anywhere elese. We could not allow that to continue. As I said in my speech, it is very bad to have budget deficits. First of all, they lead to an air of unreality because measures can be taken in terms of increases in services, but if one has become accustomed simply to adding these on to the borrowing requirements by running budget deficits there is no discipline either on the people demanding the services or on the Government conceding them in regard to how they are going to pay for them. They can pay for them simply by more borrowing. That lack of discipline is one of the main reasons why politics has deteriorated in this country in the last ten years. The discipline which should be imposed by the need to balance the budget is not there in political transactions because people have no longer to say, as long as budget deficits are accepted as the order of the day, how they are going to pay for anything.

Budget deficits have the effect, if the money used to finance them is borrowed on the home market, of pushing up interest rates. They crowd out available credit to other productive sectors of the economy, and this is particularly bad for the housing sector. The housing industry more perhaps than any other depends on borrowed capital for the creation of the demand for its services and if the Government are borrowing very substantially to finance current deficits on the home credit market that has the effect of pushing up interest rates and doing very serious damage to the housing and other similar industries.

Most important of all, budget deficits encourage imports. It has been pointed out that the propensity is for budget deficits to have a greater effect on encouraging spending on imports than they do on spending on domestic production. Ireland's situation is far from the traditional Keynesian model of the economy which is based intrinsically on a closed economy concept of where the full effects of a deficit budget run within the economy are felt within the economy itself. That approach loses its validity when applied to an open economy as in the case of Ireland where the effect of running such deficits usually is to encourage a much faster growth of imports than of domestic production. The reason is that imports can be imported at will. There is no lead time on bringing in imports because they are available on the world markets and all you have to do is pay the money. An increased demand usually can be met very quickly by imports. However, an increased demand for domestic production cannot be met just as quickly because there is a longer lead time in getting the production process into being. Hence, any attempt to pump more money suddenly into the economy through a budget deficit has the effect, due to the variance between the lead times of domestic and imported production to meet demand, of encouraging imports more than it encourages domestic production.

Faced with this situation of a very high budget deficit and this reasoning as regards the undesirability of budget deficits, the Government decided very quickly, almost within two or three days of taking office, that action would have to be taken there and then to arrest this. That decisiveness, that failure to do as so many Governments have done in the past, to look over their shoulder twice, three or four times before making up their mind about anything, that decision to go straight down to work and do the job which obviously needed to be done inspired confidence not only at home but abroad also. It is seen that the Government are prepared to take decisions and not postpone them as was very much the case under the previous Government who seemed at times to be almost in fear of their own shadow.

The balance of payments deficit was also running at a very high level and was having the effect of putting severe pressure on our currency. The necessity to maintain the value of our currency is all the more important now that our currency is part of the EMS. It is no longer tied to any other currency on a one-to-one relationship. We have the responsibility of managing our currency independently. However, no currency can maintain its value vis-a-vis other currencies if a deficit is being run on the balance of payments of the country in question which is substantially larger than the deficit being run in the other countries with whom it seeks to maintain parity in regard to the currency. Pressure would be building up on our currency because people would see that the writing was on the wall if deficits continued to run at that level. The very fact that decisions were taken quickly once the election was over, even though their immediate effect might not be great in one month or two months, restored that necessary confidence. People feel that here is a Government who will take the action necessary to maintain the value of the currency. If we were not to take that action we would find ourselves on a slippery slope. Devaluation should be avoided at all costs because it would lead immediately to a dramatic increase in our rate of inflation. The price of almost all our imports, certainly all of the imports from countries against whose currencies our currency had been devalued, would rise very rapidly and that would have a knock-on effect throughout our economy which in turn would precipitate probably a further devaluation. Once one has moved off a parity one almost loses control of the situation. In our view it is essential that we avoid that and we have taken very strong measures to avoid it.

However, we do not believe that the problem is solved by virtue of this budget. I do not make this claim. There is still a serious underlying problem. Even after the increases in revenue and the prunings in expenditure which we have made, the budget deficit at the end of 1981 would be very much larger than it was supposed to be originally. It would be around £780 million as against the £515 million which is projected, and that is far too high. Therefore, it must be said that the Government will have to continue to adopt measures in the future which will reduce the deficit progressively as the Government have planned.

The main thrust of measures in the future to restrain the budget deficit must be in the area of public expenditure and we need a very imaginative approach to the control of the growth of that. That is why I have laid special stress in the budget on the review of financial procedures here in this House. Any endeavour to bring public spending under control if it is to be successful must have a wide measure of public support. The best forum in which one can obtain public support for measures which are necessary, if not necessarily initially palatable, is in this democratic assembly. There-fore, we are proposing to make very substantial changes in the way public spending is authorised in this House. I have said on so many occasions in debates here on budgets and similar occasions that we do not approach this part of our responsibility adequately. I feel I am bound to be boring many of the Members of the House who have been here before by going over the ground again. The way we deal with Estimates for expenditure in this House makes no sense. We do not even have possession of the Estimates documents until the year to which they apply has already begun. The Estimates documents at present are not published until the middle of January of the year to which they apply. At that stage, before they are published, one-twelfth of the money which they provide has already been spent. Most of them are never debated in the House. A small number are debated, and I concede that the previous Government did make efforts to discuss more of them than had been the case in the past. Usually they are not discussed at all until half-way through the year. In other words, half the money to which they apply has already been spent before they are even discussed. Obviously discussion then is of no value because telling a Government in power that it has allocated its money incorrectly and that it could make savings here and put more money there is quite irrelevant because the money is already spent. The budget is already committed and nothing that is said in this House on Estimates documents can have any effect on the outturn for the year to which it applies.

That does not make sense. No business firm would discuss its budget for a year that was already half over. No county council would discuss their estimates for a year which was half over. Yet that is precisely the way we deal with public expenditure, the largest single entity spending money, the State itself, deals with its spending in a way in which the smallest private company would not approach its affairs, and it spending so much less. That is something which, in our view, must be reformed if we are to bring public expenditure growth under some degree of control——

Does the Minister accept that that will involve providing some additional services for us, as Opposition, to participate in that programme?

I do. I had a letter from the Deputy yesterday and I was happy to agree to the request he was making.

That is only the start.

I am sure I shall be hearing more from the Deputy. We must realise that, even in this House, we will be constrained by the realities of public finance in our demands and we ask the public generally to be equally constrained.

I accept, however, that any change in the situation to enable Members of the House to do the work they are elected to do will require increased resources and facilities for this House. It will mean a change in the format of the Estimates documents. It really does not make much sense to present an Estimate for one year. An Estimates document should at least project expenditure for four or five years ahead. I would like to see this developed by integrating the Estimates document which says what the Government are going to spend in figures, with the Government's economic and social plan which says what it intends to achieve as a result of those figures. At present, the Government publish a plan at one time of the year, which very often contains figures which cannot even be correlated with the figures in the Estimates documents.

The Estimates document is concerned soley in its format with the needs of the accountants to account for money and how it was spent. No effort is made in the Estimates document to set out any measure against which the results of the expenditure can be measured. There is no attempt to provide Members of this House in the Documents with which they are presented with a method of finding out whether the expenditure on a given subhead for a given Department achieved anything last year or the year before. No information is made available to Members of the House to enable them to make that judgment. Is it any wonder, therefore, that we have indiscriminate demands for more public spending from all quarters when we do not examine properly the results that such spending is supposed to achieve here in the House which is legally responsible for the sanction of such spending?

We must have Estimates documents concerning public expenditure presented here in the House in the autumn preceding the year to which they apply. It is my aim to bring forward the presentation of the Estimates this year by about two months. I realise there will be very severe problems in achieving this. In fact, the traditional Estimates circular is only issuing to Departments today on more or less the same day as it would normally be circulated to Departments in the past.

The Minister should not try to be too ambitious. We will not be pressing him on the matter.

I am glad to hear that. Ambition in this area is something to be commended because, unless one is ambitious, one will achieve nothing. It is my aim to bring forward the publication date by two months, if possible. It certainly will not be possible to do any more than that in the time available. That will mean, when the process is completed, that the House should have an opportunity of discussing all the Estimates in the autumn session. If this is to be achieved, it will mean the setting up of either one or a number of Estimates committees. My own preference would be for just one committee, otherwise there would be competing demands and individual committees fighting for their own area of spending, without any consciousness of the overall macro-economic effect of what they were doing. I am availing of this opportunity of putting forward my ideas in this area so that we will have the benefit of the opinions of the Opposition in this matter because I think there is a wide measure of agreement in principle, if not in practice, on the need to do something about the improvement of Estimates procedures in this House.

I would also like to see these Estimates presented on a multi-annual basis. I should like to see a similar discussion on the Government's capital programme. At present, the Government spend money in two ways, first, on current expenditure, which is basically day-to-day expenditure, salaries and so on and which, by its nature, recurs every year. It also spends about one-quarter of the same amount on what is known as capital spending which is non-recurrent spending, one-off projects which do not have to be repeated. We have a procedure for discussion of the current Estimates, but we have no discussion whatsoever of capital spending. The Government just publish their capital programme about two or three days before their annual budget and there is no discussion whatsoever on that document unless it takes place in the course of the budget debate, which is so general and political that there is no serious attempt made to analyse the choices made by the Government. There is no opportunity for constructive amendments to be put forward either by Members of the Government or by the Opposition. I should like to see us move towards a situation where we could have a discussion on the capital programme, in the same way in which discussion now takes place on the current Estimates.

I should also like to see us look at the possibility of reclassifying expenditure. There is a lot of expenditure classified at the moment as being capital and, there-fore, on the face of it capable of yielding a return in income to the Exchequer, either directly or indirectly, which will enable the Government to pay back the debt. There is some expenditure on the capital side which does not fit into that category and we should perhaps look at whether it should be classified as capital at all. I realise it is not a subject which can be approached on an amateur basis. It requires very careful study. We have inherited the division of capital and current above and below the line, which dates back to 1949 when the late Deputy Paddy MacGilligan was Minister for Finance. It has not been reviewed since then. We should now have another look at the classification system which is used in regard to distinguishing capital expenditure, which it is legitimate to finance at all times by borrowing, and current expenditure which, up to ten years ago, one was supposed to be finance only by revenue.

I also see the need for much more detailed scrutiny of the annual reports of the many semi-State bodies which spend money in our name. Very much of present Government spending is not done by Government Departments at all, or by agencies which are answerable to this House through the Minister, or through the mechanism of the parliamentary question. It is done by bodies outside the direct day to day control of the Minister, which is as it should be, most of these bodies being set up for a purpose and their autonomy being given to them for that purpose. However, where these are bodies which are spending public funds and not bringing in substantial amounts of revenue to themselves, public expenditure is not accurately scrutinised in this area.

I would like to see major changes in the format of annual reports presented to this House by such bodies, so that detailed criteria could be laid down which would say exactly what these bodies must tell this House about what they are doing, on a basis which will enable some form of cost benefit analysis on the effectiveness of these expenditures to be made by Members of this House. At present, Members are not provided with the information which would enable them to make a professional judgment which it is their legal responsibility to make. It is not fair to expect them to perform this function unless the information is presented to them in an appropriate format.

It is not reasonable to give £92,197 and £25,000 and——

Sorry, the Minister without interruption, please. He has only half an hour left.

——to institutions to dispense which spent £1 million each on election propaganda.

Would Deputy Sherlock please allow the Minister to continue?

The Deputy will have an opportunity to question all these matters in his own way. One of the reasons for finding ourselves most frequently running into budget deficits of a much larger amount than was originally planned at the outset of the year has been the facility with which Supplementary Estimates can be introduced. Batches of Supplementary Estimates representing hundreds of millions of pounds were passed through this House, without any endeavour to inquire where the money was to come from, in the course of an hour or two on the last day before Christmas. That is not proper public financing. All that expenditure is immediately financed, not by taxation, but by borrowing. There is no scrutiny either as to whether the expenditure was justified or whether it should be financed by new taxation or by borrowing. I would like to move towards the situation where a price tag would be attached to Supplementary Estimates and where the House would have a choice as to whether it would prefer these measures to be financed solely by borrowing — thereby enlarging the deficit which had originally been agreed — or whether they should be financed by some form or revenue. We must change the way in which documents are presented so that the House will have that choice which now is not even put to it, in the present format of Supplementary Estimates. That is something which we should redress at the earliest possible moment.

I hope that the House will forgive me for dwelling at such length on these ideas. As I said in the Budget Statement, it is not sufficient for us on this side of the House — and I certainly do not think it would be sufficient for me as Minister for Finance — to eloquently deplore the situation which we have inherited and condemn the politicians who have been, or are, responsible for it, without putting forward proposals which would ensure that it would not happen again. This democratic — and I emphasise the word democratic — control on Government spending will have the effect of ensuring that the situation which we have inherited will not recur. Having discussed these measures in this fairly extensive fashion in the House, I hope that we shall be able to reach a substantial level of agreement on a reform of the Oireachtas in this area, so as to enable all of us to do our work better than we have been able to do it in the past.

The next item is, perhaps, not so agreeable to the Opposition. It is the inconsistency in the criticisms which have been expressed on this budget. Some Opposition members say that this is not the time to act in the manner in which we have acted, thereby implying that there is another time — perhaps next January — when one should act in the way in which we have acted. Then there are Opposition members who simply do not recognise that there is a problem at all and suggest that no action whatsoever is necessary in regard to a budget deficit which is running at the existing level. There are other members of the Opposition Party who say we were right to act now. I would have thought that, after four years in Government, which confers a lot of information, people learning a lot from being in Government, the Members opposite would at least have been able, if not to do anything about the problem, because manifestly they did not, at least to reach some common view on what the problem was and how it should be approached. They might perhaps lack the courage to implement that common view but, quite clearly, there was no common view about the extent of our problems, or the timing and nature of the action which should be taken to remedy them. This must be distressing. It would be better if we on this side of the House faced consistent criticism from the Opposition. That would put us under greater pressure to do our job properly. We now have an Opposition which, in the matter of perhaps the second most important issue facing this country — the economy — is facing in three different directions at once. That is neither good for them nor for this House. I would urge them, in the relaxing months of summer to which we all look forward — and I am glad to have the opportunity of making the last speech here to this House as we face into a welcome respite from our labours — to spend a little time, now that they have the leisure, to work out their economic policy over the next few months. If they do that, when the House resumes not only will they do their job better but they might help us to do ours better, even better than we would otherwise do it.

Would the Minister have us go to the Gaiety Theatre?

The Minister was one of the people there.

I am sure that there is a show there which would be suitable to the taste of the Leader of the Opposition.

Rosaleen Linehan had a show there a couple of weeks ago.

No convincing argument was put forward by the party opposite as to why we should not have acted now. Some seem to suggest — and Deputy Fitzgerald was amongst them — that one should not really have supplementary budgets at all, that we should have a budget at the beginning of the year and that is all. If that is the Deputy's view, fine, but I believe that the Deputy also said in the course of his contribution that we should be flexible in our approach to economic policy. Surely it is the complete antithesis of flexibility to have one budget in the year and, no matter what happens after that, not to change anything until 12 months later. That is the very antithesis of economic and fiscal flexibility. If I had to choose between the two extremes expressed by the Deputy opposite, I would certainly choose the option of flexibility. One must face the situation as one finds it, even if it is different from what one anticipated would be the case two months previously. The Government are right in acting quickly to face the situation as it comes and not waiting until next January.

An area in which reform could be made constructively would be one where we could see how we could more appropriately fine tune our economy throughout the fiscal year so that deficits will not creep up on us, almost without our knowing it, without action being taken. It is possible to foresee these deficits well in advance. If the Government had been adequately scrutinising the weekly Exchequer returns published in Iris Oifigiúil they could have seen a month or two in advance the very serious over-runs that were occurring, and which became so blatantly obvious in the Exchequer return figures published on 30 June.

If the Government had paid attention to the figures available, it would have been possible for them to take the action we are now taking to put the situation right. Or, if they criticise the mix of measures we put forward, they could have brought forward their own mix of measures because through the weekly Exchequer return figures all the information we have was available, but the Government chose not to act. They chose to wait until after the election. We need a much closer monitoring of expenditure trends throughout the year, with the possibility of taking quick remedial action in this House to maintain the original balance of the budget as set for the year, rather than having to wait for a budget, with all the attendant drama that has grown up in the past around budgets, whether they be supplementary or annual.

A fantastic mystique has been created around budgets when all they are is an exercise in housekeeping. We need to have another look at this to see if we could devise procedures where one could respond more quickly to the type of situation we now face.

By way of elaboration, would the Minister accept that the flexibility he is talking about might also include additional expenditures during the year, and not just cutting back expenditure?

In other words, over-runs on the Estimates.

The important thing is that any over-runs that occur should be previously sanctioned. The decision to sanction that expenditure should be made in public in this House. This did not happen in the case of the current over-runs we found. Many of them had been committed before the Supplementary Estimates were presented to the House. We passed a number of Supplementary Estimates some time ago which were retrospectively sanctioning expenditure which had been already spent by the previous Government. That is not a satisfactory situation. I would like to see a situation where one could respond quickly to an up-coming situation. That is something we should look at in the reform of financial procedures in this House and, as I said, I hope we will achieve a measure of co-operation from all parties on this issue.

The Opposition referred to this budget as monetarist. I am not very sure if the Opposition spokesman who used this word studied monetarism in any depth. One believes he has not because the essential tenet of monetarism is that if one gets the money supply right almost everything else automatically falls into place. Monetarism has no time for a planned approach to economic management by an active Government. It has no time for the idea of elaborating an incomes policy with wage and price norms which the Government relay into concerted action in order to bring down inflation. Monetarists do not believe that has any effect. They say all you need do is turn on or off the tap of the money supply and automatically everything will fall into place. In my view, monetarism is a naive and optimistic approach to economics.

Economics is concerned with the management of people and their affairs. Simply turning on or off the money supply does not enable one to manage a country, and I do not believe that is an approach we should follow. In fact, it is almost the direct antithesis of the approach of this Government. We lay special stress on the need to have a concerted centralised incomes policy which controls, within agreed limits, the growth in money incomes. We believe in the publication of advance plans for the economy, setting out targets for particular sectors and setting out the measures the Government will deliberately choose to achieve those targets. Our approach as a Government is almost the complete opposite of the monetarist approach.

I suspect that the party opposite are merely attaching the monetarist label to this Government not because they have any conviction one way or the other about monetarism but because they have twigged the idea that monetarism is in some way connected with Mrs. Thatcher and Mrs. Thatcher is a bad thing. If you call you opponents monetarists, you can somehow get it into people's minds that maybe they have something to do with Mrs. Thatcher, and that might create the idea that they are not such a good crowd after all.

This exercise in very subtle and deep thinking by the party opposite lay behind the former Taoiseach's speech where he used this term eight times. Goebbels had the principle that if you repeat a lie often enough people will eventually believe it. He used to repeat lies very often. I think the present Leader of the Opposition was thinking along the same lines when he said "If I call them monetarists often enough, eventually people who have not studied monetarism, just as I have not, will eventually begin to believe that maybe they are monetarists and have something to do with Mrs. Thatcher, and we certainly do not like her. Therefore maybe they are bad too". I do not think that is going to work.

People will judge our policy by results. They will judge our financial situation by the figures. The financial situation clearly indicates that economists, whether they be inspired by Keynesianism, Friedmanism. Professor Alan Walters theories or the theories of any other economist — I could give a list of economists as long as Deputy Haughey's arm who have different theories — would all agree that where you have a budget deficit of the size we inherited, you have to take action there and then. All the economists, from Marshall on, would support this Government in the economic policies we have introduced.

The one man I expected to support us was the man who went on television in January 1980 and told us we were living beyond our means, borrowing too much. Having solemnly told us this he proceeded to live even further beyond our means. He borrowed even more. I do not know if he believed what he was saying in January or whether he did not have the guts to carry through the logic of his own words, that is something only he knows. I think the public have passed judgment on that matter and there is no point in going back on it.

It is important to recognise, and even the Leader of the Opposition recognised this at a time when our deficit was far smaller, that action should have been taken but it was not. It was left to us to take action. We did not dither for two years, we acted within three weeks. That is the sort of Government we want in this country, a Government prepared to take decisions quickly, as one commentator said, a Government prepared to take the ball and run with it. We are a Government who are prepared to take the ball that was passed to us on 30 June. We have been running with it ever since and we will be running with it for the next five years. We will score very often.

The Minister better believe it, and he should run fast.

What matters is the direction in which the Government are running.

(Interruptions.)

I mentioned already what I perceive to be a certain degree of inconsistency on the other side of the House. They first said this budget was deflationary and then said it was inflationary. I am not quite sure what they meant by that, but it indicated that they were not too sure what the budget was or how to analyse it.

I turn now to the very important area of employment. The party opposite tried to suggest that this Government did not do anything for employment. The first necessity for the preservation of employment is a solvent Exchequer. A bankrupt Exchequer cannot do anything for anyone and unfortunately that is the direction in which we were heading. If trends had continued as they were any Government would be unable to do anything about employment because we would no longer be running our own affairs. A banker from Washington would be in the Department of Finance telling the Government what they could or could not do. A bankrupt economy is not one to which the unemployed could look with any hope.

The Government have taken a number of very precise steps to help create more employment. We allocated £30 million more for local authority housing. We have taken steps to reduce the costs of industry which is competing with products from abroad and on the export markets by reducing the tax on heavy oil used in that industry. We have also indicated that we intend to reduce PRSI costs for the same type of industry. That will protect employment in the exposed sector of the economy.

We have provided substantial additional sums for agriculture. This is one of the major contributors to employment, both directly and indirectly. In a situation where farmers' incomes are reduced by half, employment in agriculture-related industry will also fall. Our Government have provided a substantial sum for an injection into increased production in agriculture. I am glad to say that the Minister for Agriculture has been singularly successful in negotiations this week in Brussels. He obtained agreement for proposals and we will provide substantial matching support from our own resources. He is to be congratulated on the manner in which he conducted those negotiations.

We have also taken steps to establish a Youth Employment Agency because we recognise that there is a need properly to co-ordinate the various efforts which have been made under the aegis of different Departments in order to alleviate the problem of youth unemployment. At present two or three youth employment schemes are being administered by different Government Departments, all of which are supposed to achieve the same objective but which have entirely different administrative procedures. People trying to avail of public funds are faced with a maze of labyrinthine paths before they can reach a decision as to how to take action. We want to give dynamic leadership in this area and we are particularly anxious to ensure that the jobs created will as far as possible be productive and sustainable, not jobs which will require continued support from the tax-payer but jobs which once established will remain viable of their own strength.

The party opposite also referred to the problem of prices and said that the increase in indirect taxation would raise the cost of living. We have not attempted to gainsay that in the course of this debate. A serious cause of inflation in recent times has been the downward slide of our currency vis-a-vis the dollar and sterling. This is a slide which we have shared with other EMS countries. It has been particularly reflected in a very substantial increase in our oil bill because the price is denominated in dollars. We propose by putting the Government's finances right to ensure that the balance of payments deficit will be narrower and that the currency will be stronger and therefore one of the fundamental causes of inflation will be removed.

One cannot cure inflation simply by treating the symptoms; one must treat the disease. One of the generating factors of this disease has been the downward slide of our currency, ultimately attributable to poor management of public finances. We are, therefore, addressing one of the core causes of inflation.

Another core cause of inflation has been that nominal income increases have well exceeded increases in production. If we pay ourselves more in money terms without producing more in volume terms the purchasing power of the £ will go down and there will be inflation. This budget, by taking measures particularly in the area of public sector pay, is putting an anchor — a strength — into the wage negotiation process. In recent times the most common cause of inflationary increases in income has been the lack of will by the Government at the negotiating table. During the talks which led to the recent national understanding it was the Government who put pressure on the employers to concede larger settlements than they may have wished. The measures we have taken will provide a baseline which will give strength, not only to the Government but to all those engaged in negotiations in this area and ensure that increases which are granted are real, that people will be able to buy more with the money they receive. In the past this was not the case.

We have also taken steps to guarantee that the cost of certain basic foodstuffs will not be allowed to increase at all. By virtue of a policy of consumer subsidies the weakest section of the community will be protected against inflation by keeping those prices down. The Minister for Industry, Commerce and Tourism has made available additional subsidies to enable the price of margarine not to be increased in line with actual increases in costs.

I now refer to a point of considerable seriousness when related to the need for continuing effective Government. Reflections have been made — I have in mind a particular journal — on the integrity of certain officials in the Department of Finance in the matter of the preparation of figures used in various documents both by this Government and the previous Government. By virtue of the fact that these figures did not seem to correspond in some ways, it was felt that there was a reflection on the competence of the officials concerned. This is not the case. The figures are prepared by people of a very high competence and it is not proper to cast reflections on them. If documents published by the Government contain information which is not correct or if Government Ministers make projections as to inflation or any other matter which subsequently prove not to be correct, the people who should take responsibility under the ministerial system which operates here are not the public officials who prepare them but the Minister who accepts those figures and publishes them. If I am proved wrong in any of the figures I have produced, as I am sure I will be in some instances, I hope I will take responsibility for it.

This is not only a courageous budget but a very necessary one and on that basis I am confident that it will obtain the support not only of this House but of the country.

Question put.
The Dáil divided: Tá, 81; Níl, 78.

  • Alderman Dublin Bay-Rockall Loftus, Sean D.
  • Allen, Bernard.
  • Barrett, Seán.
  • Barry, Myra.
  • Barry, Peter.
  • Begley, Michael.
  • Bermingham, Joseph.
  • Birmingham, George.
  • Boland, John.
  • Bruton, John.
  • Burke, Dick.
  • Burke, Liam.
  • Byrne, Hugh.
  • (Dublin North-West).
  • Collins, Edward.
  • Dukes, Alan M.
  • Durkan, Bernard J.
  • Enright, Thomas W.
  • Farrelly, John V.
  • Fennel, Nuala.
  • FitzGerald, Garret.
  • Fitzpatrick, Tom.
  • (Cavan-Monaghan).
  • Flaherty, Mary.
  • Fleming, Brian.
  • Glenn, Alice.
  • Governey, Desmond.
  • Griffin, Brendan.
  • Harte, Patrick D.
  • Hegarty, Paddy.
  • Higgins, Michael D.
  • Kavanagh, Liam.
  • Keating, Michael.
  • Kelly, John.
  • Kemmy, Jim.
  • Kenny, Enda.
  • L'Estrange, Gerry.
  • McCartin, John J.
  • McMahon, Larry.
  • Markey, Bernard.
  • Mitchell, Gay.
  • Mitchell, Jim.
  • Conlon, John F.
  • Connaughton, Paul.
  • Connor, John.
  • Cooney, Patrick M.
  • Corish, Brendan.
  • Cosgrave, Liam T.
  • Cosgrave, Michael J.
  • Coveney, Hugh.
  • Creed, Donal.
  • Crotty, Kieran.
  • Crowley, Frank.
  • D'Arcy, Michael J.
  • Deasy, Martin A.
  • Desmond, Barry.
  • Desmond, Eileen.
  • Donnellan, John F.
  • Molony, David.
  • Moynihan, Michael.
  • Nealon, Ted.
  • Noonan, Michael.
  • (Limerick East).
  • O'Brien, Fergus.
  • O'Brien, William.
  • O'Donnell, Tom.
  • O'Keeffe, Jim.
  • O'Leary, Michael.
  • O'Sullivan, Toddy.
  • O'Toole, Paddy.
  • Owen, Nora.
  • Pattison, Seamus.
  • Ryan, John J.
  • Ryan Richie.
  • Shatter, Alan.
  • Sheehan, Patrick J.
  • Spring, Dick.
  • Taylor, Madeleine.
  • Taylor, Mervyn.
  • Timmins, Godfrey.
  • Treacy, Seán.
  • Tully, James.
  • White, James.
  • Yates, Ivan.

Níl

  • Acheson, Carrie.
  • Ahern, Bertie.
  • Allen, Lorcan.
  • Andrews, David.
  • Andrews, Niall.
  • Aylward, Liam.
  • Barrett, Michael.
  • Barrett, Sylvester.
  • Brady, Gerard.
  • Brady, Vincent.
  • Brennan, Paudge.
  • Brennan, Seamus.
  • Briscoe, Ben.
  • Burke, Raphael P.
  • Byrne, Hugh.
  • (Wexford).
  • Callanan, John.
  • Calleary, Seán.
  • Clohessy, Peadar.
  • Colley, George.
  • Collins, Gerard.
  • Conaghan, Hugh.
  • Connolly, Gerard.
  • Coughlan, Clement.
  • Cowen, Bernard.
  • Crinion, Brendan.
  • Crowley, Flor.
  • Daly, Brendan.
  • Donerty, Seán.
  • Ellis, John.
  • Fahey, Jackie.
  • Faulkner, Padraig.
  • Filgate, Eddie.
  • Fitzgerald, Gene.
  • Fitzgerald, Liam.
  • O'Hanlon, Rory.
  • O'Leary, John.
  • O'Malley, Desmond.
  • Power, Paddy.
  • Reynolds, Albert.
  • Smith, Michael.
  • Fitzpatrick, Tom
  • (Dublin South-Central).
  • Fitzsimons, Jim.
  • Flynn, Pádraig.
  • Foley, Denis.
  • French, Seán.
  • Gallagher, Denis.
  • Gallagher, Pat Cope.
  • Geoghegan-Quinn, Máire.
  • Harney, Mary.
  • Haughey, Charles J.
  • Hyland, Liam.
  • Joyce, Carey.
  • Keegan, Seán.
  • Kenneally, William.
  • Killilea, Mark.
  • Kitt, Michael P.
  • Lemass, Eileen.
  • Lenihan, Brian.
  • Leyden, Terry.
  • Loughnane, William.
  • Lyons, Denis.
  • McCarthy, Seán.
  • McCreevy, Charlie.
  • McEllistrim, Thomas.
  • MacSharry, Ray.
  • Meaney, Tom.
  • Molloy, Robert.
  • Moore, Seán.
  • Morley, P.J.
  • Murphy, Ciarán P.
  • Nolan, Tom.
  • Noonan, Michael J.
  • (Limerick West).
  • O'Donoghue, Martin.
  • Tunney, Jim.
  • Walsh, Seán.
  • Wilson, John P.
  • Woods, Michael J.
  • Wyse, Pearse.
Tellers: Tá, Deputies L'Estrange and Mervyn Taylor; Níl, Deputies Moore and Briscoe.
Question declared carried.
The Dáil adjourned at 10.45 p.m. until 2.30 p.m. on Tuesday, 20 October 1981.
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