asked the Minister for Finance the estimated CPI figure for the period (a) mid-November, 1981 and (b) mid-February, 1982.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Consumer Price Index.
8.
The latest published figure for consumer prices is that for mid-August 1981. This showed a rise of 5.6 per cent over mid-May 1981. It is not possible at this stage to predict accurately the CPI for the next two quarters.
I asked the Minister the estimated figures for mid-November 1981 and mid-February 1982. We have now passed the mid-November 1981 date. Is the Minister telling us that he cannot estimate the two figures requested? Surely there is an accurate estimate at this stage of the mid-November figure and a reasonably accurate estimate of the mid-February 1982 figure.
Perhaps I could answer the question by quoting from a reply to a similar question on another occasion put to the then Minister, Mr. O'Kennedy. He said that it was not possible at that stage to predict accurately how inflation would go for the remainder of the year having regard to such facts as the price of oil and of other commodities. He indicated that because of the many variable factors that could affect inflation in the following months it was not possible to give the type of reply Deputy Fitzgerald is seeking now. Therefore, I am following a well-established precedent.
We are talking about the past, not about the future. The first part of the question asked for the figure up to mid-November.
The Deputy seems not to recollect his question which referred to the figure not only for mid-November 1981 but for mid-February 1982. It is not possible to give the information in respect of the second date and I do not have available to me a prediction in relation to mid-November. However, the information will be made available at an early date.
There are two separate parts to the question. Is the Minister serious in saying that he cannot give us the estimated figure for the period to mid-November?
I understand that the Central Statistics Office are today undertaking the review on which the mid-November figures will be based. These will be published on 17 December. Rather than engage in speculation on the very day on which the information is being collected, should we not wait one month in order to have accurate information over which everybody can stand?
We only asked for an estimate.
I accept that the Minister cannot give an accurate figure at this stage but the question asked for an estimate. Can the Minister confirm that there are estimates available although he may choose not to release them? Specifically, I take it that the Minister is using some estimates of likely price rises in the context of formulating both budgetary policy and the Government's approach to any prospective pay increases.
As the Deputy will be aware from his experience in Government, estimates of this sort are being prepared by the Department of Finance all the time. Of course there are estimates available to me but it has not been the practice to publish this type of information. It has been the practice in the past under successive Governments to rely on information published by the Central Statistics Office and I intend to follow previous practice in this matter.
Is the Minister not aware that this attitude will raise serious doubts in the minds of the trade union movement at a time when all people are anxious to have a national understanding? Is he not aware that if he releases the figure on the file, no matter what it is, it will clarify the situation and will not cause unnecessary doubts and fears among the trade union movement and complicate further a situation which has been badly handled by the Government?
As I have indicated, I am following previous practice in not revealing estimates of this sort and I would regard the statement made by Deputy Burke as quite irresponsible. It seems that he is trying to raise unjustified doubts in the minds of people in the trade union movement by the line of questioning he is pursuing.
(Interruptions.)