Vol. 338 No. 3
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the projections of non-tax revenue (PO receipts and miscellaneous), which underly the budgetary strategy outlined in the White Paper.
341.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the assumptions made in the White Paper with regard to future trends in world interest rates in the years 1983 to 1987, inclusive; and the projections of debt service costs for the same year.
342.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the assumptions with respect to import prices, interest, production costs and domestic profits and the assumptions with respect to the relative importance of each to the consumer price index, upon which the inflation rates in paragraph 49 of Chapter III are based.
343.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will provide in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the current money terms projections of the amount of Exchequer borrowing financed from domestic sources and from abroad in each of the years 1983 to 1987, inclusive upon which the 1987 out-turn in the White Paper is based.
344.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on 21 October 1982, the projections of our foreign reserves over the period 1983 to 1987, inclusive, upon which the 1987 out-turn in the White Paper is based.
345.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will cite in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on 21 October 1982, the breakdown within the industrial sector of both net and gross employment increases in the years 1983-87, inclusive by broad industrial group.
346.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on 21 October 1982, the projected shares of (a) wages and salaries; (b) agricultural income; and (c) profits in national income for 1987 and the intervening years.
347.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on 21 October 1982, the proportion of total profits projected to be retained for reinvestment in 1987 and intervening years.
348.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the projected implicit price deflators for (a) public consumption; (b) investment; (c) exports; and (d) GNP for 1987 and intervening years.
349.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will give in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the detailed projections of balance of payments for the years from 1983 to 1987, inclusive, disaggregated into its major components: (i) balance of trade; (ii) net factor income from abroad; (iii) net emigrants remittances and other transfers; and (iv) net EEC transfers.
350.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will give in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, a breakdown of overall export projection of 12¼ per cent per annum into agriculture, manufactures, raw materials and other items and a breakdown of the manufactured exports projection by major industrial sectors (chemicals, electrical engineering and so on).
351.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will provide in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the projections of tax yields by major tax category in the years 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986 and 1987 (particularly excise, VAT and income tax) upon which the current deficit outcome in the White Paper is based; and if he will give in each case the relevant assumptions underlying these yield projections where they are not elsewhere spelled out in the document.
352.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the projected figures for GNP and GDP in 1987 at 1982 and 1987 prices; and if he will give the 1982 GNP and GDP estimates used as a base for this calculation.
353.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the projected breakdown of GNP in 1987 in expenditure, output and income terms.
354.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the projected numbers of social welfare recipients for each of the years 1983-87, inclusive (i) in aggregate and (ii) by benefit group.
355.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, and with reference to Table 7 of the White Paper the projections, by value and by volume, for growth in exports, investment, personal consumption, public consumption and imports.
362.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will provide in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, a breakdown of the 4 per cent projected increase in Ireland's export markets by principal destinations and by broad industrial product groups.
363.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, whether the increased taxation yield envisaged from corporation tax is envisaged as arising exclusively on foot of increased profits projected to occur over the period or whether it is proposed to introduce new specific measures towards this end; and if the latter, the yield in 1982 and in 1987 in money terms which is expected from such measures.
369.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, what assumption of increase in world trade is made for 1983 and the intervening years to 1987.
I propose to take the following questions together, Nos. 340 to 355, 362, 363 and 369.
As the plan itself provides sufficient information to enable its thrust and underlying policies to be assessed I do not consider that any useful purpose would be served by providing the information sought in these questions. Medium-term projections of their nature must be flexible enough to allow of modification from time to time in the light of extraneous developments in the economy, interest rates, the public finances, etc. Detailed elaboration of the plan figures would not be compatible with this requirement.
In regard to certain of these questions also provision of the information sought would be prejudicial to the Government's budgetary discretion or to management of the Exchequer's borrowing requirement.
356.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the expected average EMS rate of inflation for the plan period.
The projected European rate of inflation used for the plan period related to EEC and not solely EMS countries and was based on unpublished EEC data.
357.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982 the assumptions as to earnings, output and output per worker upon which the projection of a 3½ per cent annual increase in wage costs is based.
The figure of 3½ per cent annual average increase in unit wage costs is a requirement to be met to ensure the improvement in unit wage cost competitiveness envisaged in the plan. The improvement could come about through various combinations of earning and productivity increases.
358.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982 whether the cumulative 5 per cent reduction in the volume of non-pay expenditure in the years 1982-87 incorporates debt service costs.
The 5 per cent reduction refers to the period 1986 compared with 1982 and refers to non-pay, non-capital supply services. It excludes central fund repayments but includes certain other debt service payments.
359.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982 whether the proposed £100 million reduction in PAYE taxation in 1987 and the £400 million to be raised in additional taxation in 1986, referred to in paragraph 29, are expressed in 1986/87 terms or in 1982 terms; and, in either event, if he will state what the amount will be in 1987 in both 1982 terms and in 1987 terms.
The £100 million reduction in PAYE income tax in 1987 is expressed in 1987 terms. The £400 million additional taxation to be raised in 1986 is in 1986 terms. Conversions of these figures into 1982 terms would require adoption of an appropriate deflator. What the deflator should be would depend on the purpose for which the conversion was required.
360.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will provide in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982 a detailed breakdown of the assumption of a 7.5 per cent increase in unit wage costs amongst our trading partners over the period of the plan by individual major trading partners, subdivided into its earnings and productivity growth components; the type of weighting system used in arriving at this global figure; and the sources upon which the Government has based these assumptions.
In regard to the first part of the question, the Minister refers the Deputy to his composite reply to Questions Nos. 340 etc.; as regards the second, the weighting system used was based on EEC weights and was similar to that used by the Committee on Costs and Competitiveness in their report published in October 1981: as regards the third, the assumptions in the plan were based on unpublished information supplied by the Commission of the EEC.
361.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982 the sources upon which the Government has based its assumption of a decline in the real price of oil; and what this decline is expected to be, disaggregated between trends in prices of crude and trends in the dollar vis-a-vis the Irish pound.
This assumption was based on information supplied by the EEC but not published. In regard to the second part of the question the Minister refers the Deputy to his composite reply to Questions Nos. 340 etc.
364.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982 the assumptions with respect to per capita growth in earnings for manufacturing industry, private services and the public sector upon which the projections in the document for the trend of wage-cost competitiveness are based; and how much of the movement in projected per capita earnings in manufacturing arises from expected restructuring of employment in this sector.
In regard to the first part of the question, the Minister refers the Deputy to his reply to Questions Nos. 340 etc. As regards the second part, it is not possible to estimate how much of the projected increase in per capita earnings in manufacturing industry will arise from expected restructuring of employment in that sector.
365.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982 what assumptions underly the projection in the White Paper document of equal growth rates in GDP and GNP over the period 1983 to 1987, inclusive, with specific reference to the outflow of interest and other payments on externally contracted debt, including the assumptions in regard to foreign borrowings, repayments and interest rates in each of these years upon which this projection has been based.
The disappearance of the difference between GDP and GNP growth rates arises from a slower increase projected for net factor income from abroad than has occurred over the past few years. It results from a decline in the rate of growth of servicing the foreign debt because of progress made in reducing the current budget deficit. With regard to the remainder of the question I would refer the Deputy to my answer to Questions Nos. 340 etc.
366.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the definition of profits in Table 6; and how this relates to the National Income and Expenditure Accounts classification.
The definition of profits in Table 6 corresponds to the definition given for items 4, 5, 6, 8 and 9 in `National Income and Expenditure'.
367.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will provide, in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, figures on the same basis as those for Tables 6 and 7 of Chapter III for the periods 1973-1977 and 1978-1982.
|
Annual average percentage change |
|||
|
1973/77 |
1978/81 |
||
|
Incomes |
Wages and |
||
|
Salaries |
21.5 |
20.2 |
|
|
Agriculture |
20.5 |
1.8 |
|
|
Profits |
23.7 |
13.0 |
|
|
Prices |
Consumer |
||
|
Prices |
16.1 |
14.8 |
|
|
Terms of |
|||
|
Trade |
-1.7 |
-3.0 |
|
|
Exports |
8.1 |
6.7 |
|
|
Investment |
3.8 |
6.8 |
|
|
Personal consumption |
2.3 |
2.6 |
|
|
Public consumption |
5.5 |
4.9 |
|
|
Imports |
5.8 |
6.6 |
Notes:
1. Data for 1982 are not available.
2. "Wages and salaries" are for the non-agricultural sector.
3. "Agriculture" includes wages and salaries paid in agriculture.
4. "Profits" comprise lines 4, 5, 6, 8 and 9 of Table A.1, NIE.
5. "Investment" is gross domestic fixed capital formation.
6. "Exports" and "imports" are of goods and services, excluding factor flows.
368.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will provide, in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982 figures on the same basis as Table 5 of Chapter III, Table 1 of Chapter IV, Tables 1 and 11 of Chapter VIII and the Tables on Pages 95, 96, 99 and 102, for the years 1960 to 1982, inclusive.
In relation to table 5, chapter 3, there are no comprehensive statistics available for job gains and job losses in the economy. Official annual employment estimates are prepared for mid-April of each year from which estimates of the net change in employment in the previous year can be derived. On that basis the following tabular statement sets out the estimated net change in employment in each year in the period 1960 to 1980, the latest date for which comprehensive statistics are available.
Net Change in Employment (000): Year to Mid-April 1961-1980*
|
1961 |
1962 |
1963 |
1964 |
1965 |
1966 |
1967 |
1968 |
1969 |
1970 |
|
-2.5 |
+7.5 |
+6.0 |
+5.0 |
-2.0 |
-3.0 |
-6.0 |
+3.0 |
+3.0 |
-13.0 |
|
1971 |
1972 |
1973 |
1974 |
1975 |
1976 |
1977 |
1978 |
1979 |
1980 |
|
+1.8 |
-4.8 |
+7.0 |
+9.0 |
+7.0 |
-9.0 |
+20.0 |
+26.0 |
+35.0 |
+18.0 |
* It should be noted that the estimates for 1975 onwards are based on the results of the bi-annual series of labour force surveys initiated in that year whereas the estimates for the period prior to 1975 are based on census of population results with estimates for inter-censal years based on trend indicators. As the labour force survey involves a number of differences in methodology and in definitions which affect the measurement of the labour force, the survey results are not strictly comparable to the census based figures.
Table 1 of Chapter IV
Due to the considerable changes over the years in the classification of expenditure as capital or current, it is regretted that it is not possible to give the Deputy a functional breakdown of public capital expenditure for the years 1960 to 1982. Production of such a breakdown would involve many weeks of research and it is not considered that the cost of this would be justified at the present time.
Tables I and II of Chapter VIII
|
Figures for 31/3/61 to 31/3/73 |
Figures for 31/12/74 to 31/12/82 |
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
'61 |
'62 |
'63 |
'64 |
'65 |
'66 |
'67 |
'68 |
'69 |
'70 |
'71 |
'72 |
'73 |
1974 (21 mths) |
'75 |
'76 |
'77 |
'78** |
'79** |
'80 |
'81 |
'82 Target |
|
|
Gross Telephone Demand (000's) |
16 |
16 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
25 |
28 |
29 |
32 |
42 |
81 |
46 |
45 |
55 |
73 |
67 |
84 |
77 |
63 |
|
Net Telephone Demand (000's) |
14 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
24 |
25 |
27 |
36 |
69 |
39 |
36 |
44 |
58 |
54 |
69 |
62 |
52 |
|
Connections (000's) |
16 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
21 |
27 |
53 |
36 |
39 |
42 |
39 |
32 |
62 |
68 |
90 |
|
Waiting List (000's) |
5 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
9 |
6 |
8 |
11 |
13 |
20 |
30 |
41 |
44 |
42 |
44 |
63 |
85 |
92 |
86 |
48 |
|
No. of Working Lines (000's) |
115 |
125 |
135 |
144 |
152 |
161 |
171 |
192 |
208 |
223 |
238 |
251 |
268 |
306 |
330 |
357 |
386 |
412 |
436 |
483 |
536 |
600 |
* Prior to 1974 statistics were kept on a financial year basis which ended on 31 March.
** Figures for 1978 and 1979 were affected by prolonged strikes.
Table on Page 95
ROAD INVESTMENT
|
Financial Year |
Constant 1983 £ million (Rounded) |
|
1960/61 |
54 |
|
1961/62 |
58 |
|
1962/63 |
58 |
|
1963/64 |
61 |
|
1964/65 |
64 |
|
1965/66 |
68 |
|
1966/67 |
60 |
|
1967/68 |
62 |
|
1968/69 |
64 |
|
1969/70 |
60 |
|
1970/71 |
54 |
|
1971/72 |
50 |
|
1972/73 |
59 |
|
1973/74 |
66 |
|
1974 (9 months) |
40 |
|
1975 |
39 |
|
1976 |
30 |
|
1977 |
41 |
|
1978 |
45 |
|
1979 |
52 |
|
1980 |
50 |
|
1981 |
75 |
|
1982 |
89 |
Table on Page 96
SANITARY SERVICES INVESTMENT
|
Financial Year |
Constant 1983 £ million (Rounded)* |
|
1960/61 |
17 |
|
1961/62 |
20 |
|
1962/63 |
21 |
|
1963/64 |
28 |
|
1964/65 |
34 |
|
1965/66 |
28 |
|
1966/67 |
23 |
|
1967/68 |
20 |
|
1968/69 |
26 |
|
1969/70 |
32 |
|
1970/71 |
32 |
|
1971/72 |
32 |
|
1972/73 |
44 |
|
1973/74 |
61 |
|
1974 (9 months) |
42 |
|
1975 |
55 |
|
1976 |
67 |
|
1977 |
58 |
|
1978 |
65 |
|
1979 |
69 |
|
1980 |
72 |
|
1981 |
89 |
|
1982 |
106 |
* Prior to 1973-74, the figures exclude group water and sewerage schemes.
In 1973-74 £2 million at constant 1983 prices was provided for these schemes.
Table on Page 99
HOUSING INVESTMENT
|
Financial year |
1983 Constant £ million (Rounded) |
||||
|
Local Authority Housing |
House Purchase Etc. |
Private Housing Grants |
Other |
Total |
|
|
1960/61 |
32 |
42 |
25 |
1 |
100 |
|
1961/62 |
34 |
43 |
23 |
2 |
102 |
|
1962/63 |
41 |
48 |
25 |
3 |
117 |
|
1963/64 |
49 |
47 |
29 |
7 |
132 |
|
1964/65 |
69 |
44 |
29 |
10 |
152 |
|
1965/66 |
98 |
59 |
31 |
7 |
195 |
|
1966/67 |
99 |
60 |
25 |
10 |
194 |
|
1967/68 |
132 |
59 |
28 |
11 |
230 |
|
1968/69 |
138 |
74 |
27 |
16 |
256 |
|
1969/70 |
141 |
84 |
25 |
14 |
264 |
|
1970/71 |
105 |
60 |
23 |
11 |
199 |
|
1971/72 |
147 |
67 |
26 |
12 |
252 |
|
1972/73 |
154 |
78 |
35 |
11 |
278 |
|
1973/74 |
160 |
116 |
35 |
12 |
323 |
|
1974 (9 months) |
143 |
122 |
19 |
14 |
298 |
|
1975 |
166 |
151 |
22 |
4 |
343 |
|
1976 |
167 |
78 |
17 |
7 |
269 |
|
1977 |
154 |
50 |
9 |
5 |
218 |
|
1978 |
150 |
70 |
29 |
5 |
254 |
|
1979 |
153 |
91 |
42 |
3 |
289 |
|
1980 |
161 |
103 |
38 |
5 |
307 |
|
1981 |
180 |
124 |
37 |
4 |
345 |
|
1982 |
203 |
144 |
19 |
3 |
369 |
Table on Page 102
HEALTH INVESTMENT
|
Financial year |
Constant 1983 £ million (Rounded) |
|
1960/61 |
5 |
|
1961/62 |
7 |
|
1962/63 |
6 |
|
1963/64 |
9 |
|
1964/65 |
14 |
|
1965/66 |
18 |
|
1966/67 |
23 |
|
1967/68 |
26 |
|
1968/69 |
23 |
|
1969/70 |
18 |
|
1970/71 |
22 |
|
1971/72 |
23 |
|
1972/73 |
32 |
|
1973/74 |
40 |
|
1974 (9 months) |
25 |
|
1975 |
29 |
|
1976 |
27 |
|
1977 |
33 |
|
1978 |
40 |
|
1979 |
45 |
|
1980 |
48 |
|
1981 |
54 |
|
1982 |
54 |
370.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state, in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, how the individual items, enumerated in Table 1 of the 1982 Public Capital Programme, are distributed amongst the categories: sectoral economic investment, production infrastructure and social infrastructure as laid out in Table 1 (Page 41).
Sectoral economic investment includes public sector expenditure on agriculture, industry, fisheries, forestry and tourism; productive infrastructure includes energy, ports, harbours and airports, roads, sanitary services, telecommunications, broadcasting and postal services; social infrastructure includes housing, education, hospitals, Government construction and other environmental services.
371.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, which of the two investment levels of £970 million and £1,200 million mentioned in connection with telecommunications has been assumed for the purposes of the plan; what proportion of the investment capital it has been assumed will be raised from private sources; and, throughout the plan period, the level of telecommunications investment under the auspices of the Public Capital Programme the Government envisage being undertaken in each of the years 1983-87, inclusive.
As indicated in Chapter VIII, it was assumed that the appropriate level of investment would be within the range of £970 million to £1,200 million for the period 1983-87. The Public Capital Programme and global contingency provision allocations included in Chapter IV, Table 1, allow for such a range.
With regard to the financing of the telecommunications programme it is proposed, as indicated in Chapter VIII, that an appreciable amount will be raised from private sources. The level of average annual investment envisaged for the years 1983-87 inclusive is in the range of £194 million to £240 million at 1983 prices.
372.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on 21 October 1982, the specific employment effect assumed for each 1 per cent gain in cost-competitiveness; and the source and authority for this assumption.
Wage cost competitiveness was only one of the factors which were taken into account in estimating the employment projection in the plan. Other factors included the growth in Irish export markets, the development measures proposed and the ability of the traded-goods sector to take advantage of the more favourable trading environment. It would be unrealistic to attempt to separate from the total estimated effect of these factors the employment impact of each one per cent gain in competitiveness.
373.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will state in relation to the Government's White Paper The Way Forward which was published on Thursday, 21 October 1982, the projected opening deficit for 1983; and the projections of end-year revenue for 1982 by major tax category upon which projections to 1987 in the White Paper are based.
The opening current budget deficit for 1983 will as usual be set out in the White Paper on Receipts and Expenditure which will be published shortly before the 1983 budget is introduced. The opening position will, inter alia, depend on policy decisions and measures already taken, or to be taken, by the Government so as to ensure that the objectives of the plan for 1983 are realised. As regards the tax revenue projections, these were based generally on the 1982 budget Estimates adjusted, inter alia, for emerging shortfalls the broad details of which have already been indicated to the Deputy in reply to a parliamentary question on 28 October 1982.
