asked the Minister for Energy his Department's projection for total consumption of electricity in Ireland for the next ten years.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Electricity Consumption.
16.
My Department regularly revise and update forecasts and projections of energy consumption to take account of changes which have been frequent in the area of energy supplies over the past few years. These projections are developed in close consultation with the State energy boards. In the case of electricity, the ESB have had to define their methods and planning assumptions over the past years. At present they are assuming an average of 3 per cent growth per annum over the next decade. However, they recognise that growth may resume once more at a higher rate and provision has to be made in planning to respond to an upturn in demand. At the moment a sustained growth of over 5 per cent per annum is thought to be unlikely. The refinement of the analysis of the association between growth in GNP and electricity consumption is necessary as industries become more efficient in their use of energy, switch fuels, and proceed with energy conservation projects. It is my Department's view that the energy projections provided by the ESB are adequate for planning purposes, but that further refinement is necessary to take account of more recent developments in fuel availability.
Will the Minister agree that the ESB when planning in the mid-seventies expected a growth rate of 8 per cent? Will the Minister tell the House the over-capacity in the ESB at present and what it is expected to be when stage 1 of Moneypoint comes on stream in 1985?
I do not have that information for the Deputy.
The question deals with the consumption in the future.
I do not have the figures the Deputy is seeking but I will get them for him. I would prefer to give the Deputy the exact figures rather than a projection. I can provide the Deputy with the figures.
Is it true that when Moneypoint comes on stream the over-capacity in the ESB will be in the region of 90 per cent?
Obviously, a lot of factors will be involved in terms of the growth rate, the take-up for electricity use, and switching to other fuel.
The ESB are assuming an average of 3 per cent growth per annum and, in the light of that, what will the over-capacity be?
A lot will depend on the demand for electricity energy, on the switching from other fuel and on the availability of other fuel. The ESB have to take certain norms in terms of their calculations and in this case they have taken a 3 per cent growth rate. As I stated we can certainly assume that it will not be in the region of 5 per cent. The Deputy correctly made the point that the original growth rate they had worked on was between 7 per cent and 8 per cent. Obviously, that was seen at the time as being the likely growth rate but we all know, to the detriment of the planning, that that will not be the position.
Will the Minister agree that with the retention of the ESB as a user of peat across the midlands and the coming on stream of Moneypoint there will be a vast increase in the capacity of the ESB? The Minister may give me the details later but I am sure he will agree that there will be a huge over-capacity.
We must look at the energy sources we have. We have been trying to switch from a dependency on oil — something we have been doing successfully in recent years — and that will be an important part of our energy programme.
On the basis of the statement of policy given by the Minister here during the Laois-Offaly by-election campaign, that all peat burning stations would remain open while at the same time the Government were going ahead with Moneypoint, there will be a huge over-capacity?
Perhaps I should have said it earlier but we are getting far away from the question. We are now dealing with over-capacity.
We are dealing with projections. The Minister has a long brief in front of him and while I am prepared to accept that he cannot give me an accurate figure, I believe he is in a position to admit that there will be serious over-capacity on the question of electricity generation over the next number of years.
That is another question.
It is a statement of fact and if the Minister says he does not wish to answer it I must tell him that I know the reason why.
The Deputy is aware that he is out of order.
The Minister has taken up a position that is countrary to that which he outlined in regard to the supply of energy during the Laois-Offaly by-election.
I would be happier if the Deputy retracted that statement because I can stand over everything I said in the House during my Estimate speech concerning the midland power stations and the other turf burning stations throughout the country.
I cannot allow a debate on this matter.
I will be happy to withdraw anything that contradicts what the Minister said. I am saying that the Minister has taken up a contradictory position in regard to ESB generating stations. He said he would hold all the midlands stations open. That decision, with the bringing on stream of the first phase of the Moneypoint project, must lead to a 90 per cent over-capacity in the ESB. If there is not a contradiction there I will withdraw what I said. The Minister will not produce the figures to show the extent of the over-capacity.
The Deputy is out of order.
Will the Minister agree that any projection for total consumption of electricity will be influenced very much by the pricing policy struck for electricity, in particular to industrial users? In view of the fact that there will clearly be substantial over-capacity will the Minister favour a policy of reduced pricing of electricity to industrial users in particular so that some of the slack capacity available can be taken up? Will the Minister outline to the House the position with regard to pricing policy?
I am in agreement with the basic assumption underlying Deputy Taylor's statement. I am sure the Deputy is aware of the statement I made last Friday in relation to the Jacobsen Report on the pricing structure in the ESB. That report was made available to the Department in the last fortnight and I am hoping to make an early announcement on the contents of that report which will be published.