asked the Minister for Health if he will indicate the expected trends in the birth rate up to the year 2010.
Written Answers. - Birth Rate Trends.
135.
In order to predict the birth rate a number of assumptions need to be made in relation to fertility and migration. For these reasons it is impossible to make long range projections with any degree of certainty. In the Central Statistics Office's document, "Population and Labour Force Projections: 1991-2021" published in April 1988, assumptions are used which give rise to a range of population projections. It should be stressed that by their nature these assumptions, particularly for the longer term, are quite speculative. The table below gives the average annual birth rate projected for each five year period between 1986 and 2010 for the medium migration assumption taken with each of the two fertility assumptions.
Projected Average Birth Rate for each five year period from 1986 to 2010 for Migration Assumption M2 and Fertility Assumptions F1 and F2
|
Assumptions |
Five year Periods |
||||
|
1986-1990 |
1991-1995 |
1996-2000 |
2001-2005 |
2006-2010 |
|
|
M2 F1 |
16.5 |
15.0 |
14.6 |
14.2 |
13.8 |
|
M2 F2 |
16.5 |
14.8 |
14.0 |
13.3 |
12.6 |