Before the Adjournment of this debate, I was stressing the fact that the budget has been described in various quarters, both inside and outside the House, as being cautious and steady. Before the budget I had made a speech where I said that I hoped the Minister would tread very slowly. When I was interviewed, the interviewer said that as I was not known as a cautious person, why was I now advocating caution? However, the reality is that a lot of the talk in the past few months has been irresponsible. It has been irresponsible in a sense that one would be forgiven for imagining that the problems that had beset the economy for a long number of years were now completely overturned and that everything was on a steady course. Everything is on a steady course but we are a long way from the end of the tunnel. It is not that we have begun to see the light at the end of the tunnel but that we have only begun to see the tunnel.
The simple and stark facts are as follows: at the end of 1988 the Irish debt ratio to gross national product stood at 133 per cent of GNP. The same ratio is projected to the end of 1989. If the Government had not taken the corrective action they have taken in the past two years, I do not know what the figure would be. However, I am already on record as having stated many years ago that if we had kept proceeding at the pace at which this economy was going, we would be totally non-viable. If we had continued with that particular debt-GNP ratio, our standing in the international community would fall and we would not be able to provide a level of public services in this country at all.
I consider the ratio of 133 per cent to be still too high. They had a major debate in the United States preceeding the last presidential election — though they seem to have a peculiar way of having elections, they talk about everything except the real facts of the economy — about the debt-GNP ratio. There is a serious crisis in the American economy because it is projected that their ratio is 55 per cent. Our rate is 133 per cent. To put that in context, it takes over £2 billion per year to service our current level of debt. The situation has been like that for a number of years. If that figure did not have to be repaid on debts incurred in the past, it would mean that we would be well able to fund a very adequate health service as the total health bill is approximately £1,200 million. We would have had current budget surpluses over the past number of years. It would be impossible for any Government to right in a couple of years the wrongs of the past 15 years.
One good thing that has happened in the past few years is that reality has dawned on all, particularly the Members of this House. It was acknowledged that we had to do something about where we were going, and we did it. This is the first Government in the past 20 years who have actually done anything about the problem. If talk could have solved this problem, it would have been solved many years ago. There was a lot of talk about this by successive Governments and they all had their aspirations but nobody did anything about it until now. Whether we win the next election or not, this Government will be remembered as the first Government to stop the rot. I have already paid tribute to the responsible attitude taken by the other parties in the House, particularly Fine Gael, which may not have paid off politically as of yet for the current Leader of the party but which in the long term will pay off because in the long term, the Irish people give credit where credit is due. This Government will get credit for arresting the decline which has been going on since 1972 at least.
If we are to learn anything at all, we should realise why we got into this mess. It was because we were not prepared, as a nation, to pay as we went along. In the 1973-1977 period there were good reasons for having current budget deficits. Perhaps I am the only person in the House who remembers the original principle of what that was about but the theory behind it was that when the economy was in decline, or due to some outside influence there was a crisis, we would not balance the current budget every year. We would pump more money into the economy to stimulate demand. Up to 1972 it was the set economic theory that you balanced your budget. However, it was never intended that a current budget deficit would become a regular feature of any economy. The principle was that it was only a short term expedient to pump up demand in times of crisis and then to return a balance. It has become a fact of life in this country that we have a current budget deficit. This Government have not balanced their budget yet but at least the budget has not spiralled in the past two years.
It is not that the level of public services we provide is excessive but that we were not prepared to pay the cost of those services or to have a level of services the cost of which we could afford. All the services that we have are necessary and very desirable. However, if you have not the money to buy a new television set or washing machine you do without. The State did not adopt that household principle, which is the fundamental reason for our having got into such a mess over the past couple of years. All the public services are necessary and very desirable but we could not afford that level. I wish to see this Government continuing on their present course, so that eventually there will be no current deficit at all. That will take further drastic action, but I think we are on course to do that. There was a good reason for trying out having a current budget deficit, but it continued apace and became a standard feature of economic life. We must reverse that thinking.
There were many irresponsible comments made during the last three or four months of last year by politicians and others. The new "in" expression was "tax reform". Other parties, particularly the Progressive Democrats, spoke much about tax reform in the last couple of months but all they meant fundamentally was tax reduction. That was grossly irresponsible. We cannot yet start thinking about things like that, about reducing the top rate of 58 per cent to 40 per cent and the standard rate down to 25 per cent or whatever. We have been down that road before. One can make a mistake once, which is hard luck, but to repeat the mistake would be grossly irresponsible and criminally negligent. The Irish people, and particularly certain sectors of them such as the poor and underprivileged have suffered hardship as a result of some measures taken in the past couple of years. It was not the poor and underprivileged who caused the present crisis. Now that we are coming to a semblance of reality and are half way down the road to solving the problem, would it not be justice, if there were any surplus funds, to direct those funds to the poor and underprivileged? Surely it would be morally reprehensible to give tax cuts to the taxpayers in the highest bands in the land — although we would all love the highest tax band to be 50 per cent or 40 per cent — after all this hardship suffered by those in the lower income brackets.
We tried the economic theory in 1977 of giving tax cuts. We abolished car tax and we gave other reliefs at that time. That policy had a short term impetus on employment but in the long term, although it did create jobs, it did not create them in Ireland. They were created in Japan, Hong Kong and elsewhere. We ended with a massive debt and increasing costs of public services and we are now trying to get out of that dilemma. There was talk over recent months about heading along that road again but the evidence is there that current budget deficits do not work in Ireland. In an economy such as that of the United States it can work because of the huge population. It does not work in Ireland because of the Irish propensity to import. If you flood the economy with extra money you will not create more jobs here and will end up having always to have a current budget deficit.
I am a reasonably fair minded person and I wish to congratulate the Minister on this budget but on another budget at another time I would equally criticise the Minister of the day, if I saw fit to do so, regardless of whether he was a member of my party or of any other. The Minister and the Government were particularly brave to resist the temptation, which must have been great, of further tax cuts. If Fine Gael and the Progressive Democrats are talking to the people about reducing taxes that is very attractive, particularly electorally attractive. I have had enough experience from 12 years as a Member of Parliament to know that if things are electorally attractive, no matter how hard people try to keep the line, it will be broken by the other party. There has to be a response. The middle class and upper classes vote in elections but the poor do not vote in such great numbers. That still does not lessen the validity of their case. All the tax cuts given in 1977 did not do the poor any good. They do not have cars and did not have cars then, either. Tax cuts are no good to them because they do not have jobs. The temptation must have been immense for the Government to go off on a spree again and end up in the same net.
As I have been saying for many years, Irish politicians are slower than the public. The Irish people know reality and respect it. They know if a Government are doing a good job or otherwise. I have talked about parties throwing money at the electorate. If I walk along a corridor and find a fiver lying on the floor and there is nobody around, the temptation is to put it in my pocket. I might take the fiver, but I would know that it did not fall from heaven. The electorate will take all the goodies that politicians throw them at election time, but they know that the day of reckoning must come. Opinion polls have proved that where measures have been harsh and much criticised people admire the Government for doing the right thing. That should be a lesson for all future Governments.
To come back to tax reform, that is not what has been spoken about in the past, but tax reduction. Tax reform is very difficult to bring about. It is like being against sin but just not now, Lord. Let us take the example of the children's allowance. The Minister in his budget speech said that the Government were thinking, perhaps next year, of restricting children's allowance in some form for the higher income groups in our society. What happened overnight? There was the greatest hullabaloo about it. I do not like anyone to impugn my motives, so I will not impugn anyone's motives. There must be only a very small minority of Deputies who would not agree that the Minister was right.
The Taoiseach referred this morning to what Deputy Desmond said many years ago about the immense pressure from political parties when any topic of this type is mentioned. It is absolutely ridiculous that the wives of people in the higher echelons of income earners receive children's allowance. I do not care whether that vexes or pleases the ladies in my constituency. It is the plain truth. There are many ways of tackling it. Perhaps the husband might be taxed and a corresponding tax relief might be given at lower income levels. Other Government Ministers have talked about monstrous thresholds for the cut off point. The Minister's idea is a good one and the principle is certainly right. All Deputies, with the exception of one or two, must agree, although they may not be prepared to admit it.
I should not like members of the Government to raise the threshold any higher because if they keep going as they are only Michael Smurfitt and Tony Ryan and a few others will not be eligible for children's allowance. The threshold should be set at a realistic level. The figure of £30,000 has been mentioned but I believe it should be far lower. Perhaps the Minister will consider taxing the husband and consider introducing a tax free allowance for low income earners. Taxing children's allowance or stopping the payment of it to certain people is not a radical step. Any really radical proposal would cause a great hullabaloo on all sides of the House and pressure groups would be formed to resist it. Despite all the talk about tax reform, it would take a very brave Government and a brave Minister for Finance to do anything about it. The political pressure would be intense.
I welcome the social welfare provisions, which represent an attempt to target the real poor in society. One problem is that the differential between income from work and income from social welfare is so small. It is not that social welfare rates are too high. An example will make the point. A person could earn a gross income of £200 per week and have a take home pay of £140. The cost to the employer is 12½ per cent of the gross salary, giving a figure of £224. Taxation is taken by the Government to pay for the problems we created in the past. We must conquer those problems by reducing the national debt to a realistic level. This Government have adopted the right approach. There is no option but to tackle the debt problem.
There are two forms of unemployment. In some parts of rural Ireland there are small employers who cannot get people to work for them unless they agree not to stop PAYE and PRSI. These people want to collect the dole at the same time and want the employer to give them money into their hand. The Department of Social Welfare should expend more resources investigating this practice. Large numbers of people are abusing the system because the differential to which I have referred is so small.
I welcome the increase in the capital budget. It has traditionally been believed that £1 million invested in the capital budget will yield a certain number of jobs, but the ratios used in the sixties and seventies are out of date. The ratio now is a lot less due to technology and lower costs. People ask why we are not experiencing an increase in jobs since the economy is performing so well and exports are so high. The same thing happened during the recession in the seventies. Firms who have let people go find when the economy picks up that they can get greater productivity from a lesser number of employees. There is a considerable time lag before they begin recruiting because they are reluctant to take on extra staff. This year will see an increase in employment and the Minister's figures may be somewhat conservative with regard to the number of new jobs.
The large export figures given by many companies are really fictitious. They are arrived at by what is known as transfer pricing. There are double taxation agreements with several governments. Export figures may not correspond with the real level of exports. The American revenue authorities are trying to take action against some companies. There is very little the Irish Revenue Commissioners can do about it because they want to increase profits here. Transfer pricing accounts for part of our export figures and such figures do not represent real export growth.
Regarding farmer taxation, I must declare a professional interest in that I practise as a chartered accountant with a large number of farming clients. Anything I say will be seen in that light and it will be said that I am protecting my own interests in that few people will talk themselves out of a job. In principle, the Government are correct in what they have said. The campaign being conducted by the ICMSA is totally irresponsible. We should learn from experience. The farmers went to court regarding the payment of rates and the Government had to scrap that system.
There was such a campaign about sales tax in the late seventies that we had to get rid of it. We got rid of the notional system. We had land tax and they wanted to get rid of that. During my early years in the Dáil in 1978-79 there were major meetings in the party rooms about sales tax. I and other Deputies played a big part in persuading the then Minister, the late George Colley, to modify the proposals. We eventually did away with it. I was very outspoken on that issue. What did it achieve? It brought 750,000 PAYE workers into the streets and it created an urban-rural divide.
The urban rural divide was created in regard to tax but the IFA have now put forward realistic proposals to the Government for keeping the accounts system with certain modifications. The problem is that successive Governments treated farmers as a separate species and said that they could not keep accounts. Many of my clients are farmers and none of them ever had difficulty in keeping records in case they wanted to apply for a grant. They now know how to live within the system. The ICSMA represent milk farmers who have done extra-ordinarily well in the past couple of years. Last year the yields were expected to be £42 million but I said they would be considerably greater in 1989 because farm accounts were a year behind.
Land tax is not income tax. It would be a great system if an accountant could be taxed on the number of square feet in his office or the carpenter on the number of tools in his box. If I owed £10,000 in tax, Deputy Nealon owed £5,000 and the Minister, Deputy O'Rourke, owed £2,000 it would be a grand system if, instead of paying the £10,000 we could divide the full amount by three leaving me to pay £5,500. However, we must be realistic and have a fair system.
I am not standing up for direct taxation but, if it is to be changed, it should be changed for everyone. If it is bad for one it should be bad for all. It would not be morally justifiable to put farmers into a separate category. The ICMSA are sharpening the urban-rural divide. Let us give the present system a chance.
I welcome the tax amnesty and the Revenue Commissioners have been congratulated ad nauseam in this regard. However, I should like to congratulate the self-employed who paid their taxes. A lot of people went to a considerable amount of trouble and into debt to get their tax affairs up to date. The compliant taxpayer has paid up but thousands of people are still outside the system and have not paid. The Revenue Commissioners should devote more of their resources to going after those people.
The self-assessment system is a great idea and is working quite well but I would have preferred if it did not start until September or October 1989 to give the Revenue Commissioners more power to organise their affairs in such a way that the system would be more streamlined. I will refer to this again in the debate on the Finance Bill. However, the self-assessment system will not work effectively unless there is a single basis of assessment. A person who has a shop or a small business may want to pay his taxes on time but if his wife has a job he has to wait until he gets her P60 after 5 April of the relevant year before he can fully assess what he owes. That will slow down the system. The Minister said that a working party will be set up to examine the whole matter, which is very welcome. It would help the system if, before next year, the Revenue Commissioners and the experts in the Department of Finance can arrive at a proper system.
I welcome the decrease in the standard rate of 35 per cent and in the top rate of 58 per cent. I am glad that the Government did not lower the top rate to 50 per cent because that would have been very unjust.
The only areas in which we can have tax reform are property and capital taxation. That brings us to the question of local authorities and local property taxation. I am on record as saying that we might as well do away with local authorities, as we should have done in 1977. There was nothing wrong in abolishing rates at that time but it was criminally irresponible not to replace them with something else. Since then every Government have funked the issue. I was glad to see in the magazine Aspect that the Minister for the Environment, Deputy Flynn, is set to tackle the issue. He might as well be straight with the people and tell them that if they want proper local authorities and funding there must be property taxation. I wish the Minister the best of luck getting such legislation through the Houses of the Oireachtas. The Government must take their courage in their hands and do something about the problem. I wish the Minister well in his appointment. The Government have done an excellent job and most people recognise that. If I did not think they were doing things properly, I would have no hesitation in criticising them. I wish them continued success.