asked the Taoiseach if he will give for each of the last seven years the gross figures for emigration from this country, that is, the number of those who emigrated without deducting the number who immigrated; if his attention has been drawn to a survey carried out by a person (details supplied) in Cork which showed that gross emigration over the past seven years has amounted to almost 300,000 persons; if he will confirm these figures; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Emigration Figures.
2.
In the absence of comprehensive documentary or other administrative procedures relating to the movement of persons into and out of the State, migration estimates are made annually using current population estimates and data on births and deaths. These migration estimates are for the net balance between inward and outward flows in the 12 month period to mid-April each year. Corresponding estimates for gross inward and outward flows are not available.
The estimated total net outward migration in the seven year period to mid-April 1989 amounts to 176,000 persons. This is an estimate of the extent to which outward flows have exceeded inward flows over that period.
Certain estimates of gross inward flows can be derived from the annual sample labour force survey. Adding these estimates of inward flows to the estimated net balance provides a rather crude derived estimate of gross outward migration on an annual basis.
The gross emigration figure quoted by the Deputy was apparently derived by combining the official net migration estimates with the separate estimates of inward flow referred to above and aggregating them over the whole period. Such an aggregation is not completely appropriate, however, over a period of years since a proportion of the inward flow in any particular year will relate to persons who emigrated in earlier years of the period.
Would the Minister of State admit that he is familiar with the report done by Mr. Courtney at the regional technical college in Cork which shows that the official figures disguise the extent of the outflow, totalling 300,000 people since 1982, and would he admit that in any event the actual figures are immeasurably worse than our worst fears no matter what method is used to compute them? For example, the figure for the current year is 65,000. Will the Minister of State not agree that only a major shift in industrial policy will make any impact on the extent of emigration and that it is time the Government abandoned their reliance on the Programme for National Recovery as the standard reply to a question on what we are doing about emigration? It is no longer an adequate reply.
The Deputy's question is essentially statistical. I must dissuade him from bringing in extraneous matter to a statistical question.
Let me repeat that the correct figure is 176,000 persons. The person to whom the Deputy referred, in compiling the report did not take into consideration the numbers coming back into the labour force survey. Taking that figure into consideration, the accurate net number is 176,000 persons. With regard to policy, during the past two years employment has been on the increase and will continue to increase. In my view, that does not indicate any failure of Government policy, in fact quite the opposite.
A Cheann Comhairle——
A final question, Deputy.
I want to challenge the Minister of State on his understanding of the methodology used in this report. Does he not accept that the gross emigration estimates in the report were arrived at by adding the unpublished one year immigration figure from the labour force survey, to which he referred, to the estimate for net emigration? Therefore the figures I have advanced are at least as reliable an assessment of the extent of emigration as the Minister——
This is leading to argument. It is not in order.
Does the Minister agree with the Minister for Labour that the private sector employers are not making a sufficient contribution to job creation?
Policy matters of that kind do not arise on this question. I want to facilitate Deputy Garland.
Would the Minister agree that even the figure of 176,000 represents the total bankruptcy of our economic policy for the last 20 years, to which his party have greatly contributed?
The Deputy is again entering the area of policy. Let us proceed to questions nominated for priority. I would again advert to the time limit which applies to priority questions so that I may have the co-operation of Deputies in disposing of the four questions on the Order Paper today.