This is an opportunity to look at agriculture post 1999. We are aware that the Common Agricultural Policy has worked to the benefit of the farming community. We owe a debt of gratitude to my former constituency colleague, the former Commissioner for Agriculture, Mr. MacSharry, whose reforms met with scepticism from the agricultural community, but proved successful. Brussels is taking very unusual steps in dealing with the agricultural industry. The recent cuts in export refunds should sound a warning bell to all those involved in beef production. The cuts have had a drastic effect on farmer confidence and the sheepmeat industry is in crisis. In spite of the best efforts of the Minister for Agriculture, Food and Forestry, it would appear he has not been able to secure the top-up premium of £8 per ewe, the amount needed to increase the price to an acceptable level. In a reply to my recent parliamentary question the Minister referred to a top-up premium of £2-£3 which will mean a continued exodus from sheep farming. This would be to the detriment of the sheep industry because we would no longer be able to guarantee a continuous supply and would not be able to compete in the French market.
This year there will be a shortage of home grown grain. It is time to look to the prospect of allowing land to be used for grain production. Following the CAP proposals of 1992 it was felt that feed prices would drop but they are now rising. This will have an adverse effect on intensive producers, especially those involved in winter fattening. On top of the loss of export refunds they will have to bear increased feed prices.
We are seeking the restoration of refunds to their previously agreed level. I am aware that at the Council of Ministers' meeting, the Minister for Agriculture, Food and Forestry tried to reverse the recent cuts. While there has been some reversal, it is far from the level necessary to restore confidence.
Milk quotas need to be examined and we will have to put a mechanism in place to allow farmers to expand to a viable level. We recognise that 40,000 gallons is the minimum that will sustain a dairy farm family. I hope this debate will give the Minister an opportunity to plan with his colleagues in Europe for post 1999. There is no point trying to see what we should do in 1998 and then making hasty decisions. We need long-term planning for expansion within the timeframe. If we knew the timescale we would be better able to set about drawing up a proper programme. When we see the level of confusion in the Commission there is a definite need for decisions to be taken as quickly as possible. Commissioner Fischler does not appear to have a plan as to how agriculture will proceed in the future. I find that worrying because he who hesitates is lost. From his recent publication he appears to be going three different ways, (1) to maintain the status quo; (2) to carry out a radical reform of CAP; (3) to develop and build on 1992 reforms. The Minister and his colleagues will have to influence Commissioner Fischler's thinking and will have to point out the need to maintain income on family farms at a level that will maintain rural society as we know it. We would not like to see a situation develop where the small family farms have disappeared and we have large farms without families. That would be to the detriment of rural society and the country. As one third of the population lives in the greater Dublin area it proves the need to ensure there is no further reduction in the rural community.
The expansion of EU membership to include the Eastern European states must be planned. The Minister for Agriculture, Food and Forestry and his colleagues need to set the agenda from an Irish point of view during our Presidency in 1996. The need for effective action to protect family farms and smaller units is very important and I know the Minister will try his best to do that. He will be judged on how he guides Commissioner Fischler on agricultural reform. The need to maintain small family units should be made clear, whether by means of an extra quota, the continuation of the support system or some other mechanism. It is imperative that the Minister makes his colleagues in Europe aware of our grave concern about the future of the CAP.