Vol. 466 No. 7
11 Mr. B. Ahern asked the Taoiseach the anticipated population growth early in the next century; and the underlying assumptions, if any, there are regarding an increase in the birth rate, increased longevity and trends in net emigration. [11581/96]
The official population and labour force projections for the period 1996-2026 were published in April 1995. Four separate population projections were prepared based on two different fertility assumptions and two different migration assumptions. These assumptions, together with the single assumption on mortality, were agreed by an expert group chaired by the CSO.
I am circulating in the Official Report a statement containing a summary of the main projections and the underlying assumptions.
Following is the statement:
Population projections, 1996-2026
|
Scenario |
Population |
Annual average per cent change in total population in 5-year period |
|||
|
0-14 |
15-64 |
65 years and over |
Total |
||
|
Thousands |
|||||
|
Actual (Base)1991 |
940.6 |
2,182.2 |
402.9 |
3,525.7 |
— |
|
M1 |
|||||
|
F1 1996 |
841.0 |
2,336.0 |
411.3 |
3,588.2 |
0.35 |
|
2001 |
772.9 |
2,445.1 |
420.8 |
3,648.9 |
0.34 |
|
2006 |
761.8 |
2,518.4 |
439.4 |
3,719.5 |
0.38 |
|
2011 |
780.6 |
2,571.2 |
479.8 |
3,831.7 |
0.60 |
|
2016 |
791.8 |
2,594.1 |
548.2 |
3,934.1 |
0.53 |
|
2021 |
774.1 |
2,618.7 |
620.6 |
4,013.5 |
0.40 |
|
2026 |
734.4 |
2,640.2 |
693.6 |
4,068.2 |
0.27 |
|
F2 1996 |
838.4 |
2,336.0 |
411.3 |
3,585.7 |
0.34 |
|
2001 |
749.6 |
2,455.1 |
420.8 |
3,625.5 |
0.22 |
|
2006 |
696.9 |
2,518.4 |
439.4 |
3,654.6 |
0.16 |
|
2011 |
665.2 |
2,568.7 |
479.8 |
3,713.8 |
0.32 |
|
2016 |
647.4 |
2,570.8 |
548.2 |
3,766.5 |
0.28 |
|
2021 |
625.2 |
2,554.0 |
620.6 |
3,799.9 |
0.18 |
|
2026 |
592.8 |
2,522.7 |
693.6 |
3,809.2 |
0.05 |
|
M2 |
|||||
|
F1 1996 |
841.0 |
2,336.0 |
411.3 |
3,588.2 |
0.35 |
|
2001 |
767.2 |
2,404.3 |
423.8 |
3,595.3 |
0.04 |
|
2006 |
740.9 |
2,414.8 |
445.6 |
3,601.3 |
0.03 |
|
2011 |
740.6 |
2,465.0 |
485.6 |
3,691.1 |
0.49 |
|
2016 |
738.4 |
2,484.6 |
552.1 |
3,775.0 |
0.45 |
|
2021 |
724.4 |
2,497.2 |
621.9 |
3,843.4 |
0.36 |
|
2026 |
700.5 |
2,499.5 |
692.2 |
3,892.2 |
0.25 |
|
F2 1996 |
838.4 |
2,336.0 |
411.3 |
3,585.7 |
0.34 |
|
2001 |
744.2 |
2,404.3 |
423.8 |
3,572.3 |
-0.08 |
|
2006 |
678.7 |
2,414.8 |
445.6 |
3,539.1 |
-0.19 |
|
2011 |
632.1 |
2,462.4 |
485.6 |
3,580.2 |
0.23 |
|
2016 |
603.9 |
2,461.7 |
552.1 |
3,617.7 |
0.21 |
|
2021 |
585.1 |
2,435.1 |
621.9 |
3,642.1 |
0.13 |
|
2026 |
565.4 |
2,389.0 |
692.2 |
3,646.6 |
0.02 |
