I assume the Deputy is referring to the demographic dividend which will arise in the 1996-97 school year. Data relating to the 1997-98 school year will not be available until early 1998. The preliminary estimate of the demographic dividend arising in the current school year due to declining pupil enrolments is approximately 600.
As the Deputy is aware, there has been a massive reduction in pupil enrolments in primary schools in recent years. They declined by 12,600 in the 1995-96 school year and by 11,000 in 1996-97 school year, and it is estimated that they will further decline by 10,700 in the coming school year, giving a total decline of 34,300 pupils between September 1994 and September 1997.
In the context of this year's demographic dividend, some posts will be required to meet the needs of schools whose increased enrolments on 30 September 1996 warrant the allocation of additional posts from September 1997. It is estimated that further posts will be required to meet demands from schools for additional staffing as a result of increased enrolments and to ensure compliance with maximum class size guidelines.
I should also point out that by next September the Government will have reduced the pupil-teacher ratio in primary schools to 22:1 from a level of 25.2:1 when I took office. Implementing a pupil teacher ratio of 22:1 will also enable me to retain a substantial number of posts to further enhance the quality of primary education through, for example, improving the staffing schedule and providing extra resources to address a range of special needs. This will leave a further number of surplus posts and I will explore the possibility of retaining these in the primary education system.
Since taking office I have retained almost 1,270 teaching posts in the primary sector which would otherwise have been surplus due to falling enrolments. I have used these posts to reduce maximum class sizes substantially and to provide a substantial number of additional posts in the special education and disadvantaged areas.