Demographic trends indicate that the number of pupils attending first and second level schools will decline significantly in the period up to 2006. This pattern is already evident at first level, where enrolments fell by around 11,000 in the current school year and by over 23,000 since the 1994-95 school year. Although the rate of retention to leaving certificate is expected to increase further, projections indicate that enrolments at second level have reached a peak in the current school year and will decline thereafter.
It is my intention that resources becoming available due to the projected drop in enrolments will be redistributed to meet the objectives and recommendations contained in the White Paper on Education.
Since taking up office, I have targeted surplus teaching posts to effect improvements within the primary system generally by lowering the pupil teacher ratio, by reducing maximum class sizes and by directing resources specifically towards pupils with special needs and in disadvantaged areas. While I am anxious to continue to utilise surplus posts in this manner, I will of course obtain the views of the education partners before final decisions are made.
Within the national trend, different patterns of change in enrolment levels may occur in individual school areas. Such local variations have implications for the extent and timing of the provision of new and improved school accommodation. There will be a continuing need for significant capital investment in school buildings to maintain progress in eliminating substandard accommodation. New and extended school facilities will also be required in areas experiencing population growth, to meet the needs of the multi-denominational and gaelscoileanna sectors and to provide for curriculum expansion and development, particularly at second level. Rationalisation options will be examined before new buildings are provided, as is the case at present.
The Commission on School Accommodation Needs, which I established last year, will recommend criteria and procedures for school planning and provision, having regard to such factors as demographic change and the need for plurality within the system.
