Vol. 500 No. 2
46 Mr. Ferris asked the Minister for Education and Science if, further to Parliamentary Question No. 841 of 30 September 1998, his Department continues to predict a fall in school enrolment in view of the continuing increase in the number of births; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [3706/99]
There has been no appreciable change as yet in the projected enrolment in primary school for the years 1998-99 to 2003-04 from that which I outlined in Parliamentary Question No. 841 of 30 September last. In the 1997-98 school year the total number of pupils enrolled in primary schools was 460,830 pupils. The most recent enrolment projections at primary level for the years 1998-99 to 2003-04, made by my Department, are as follows: 1998-99, 448,000; 1999-00, 436,000; 2000-01, 429,000; 2001-02, 425,000; 2002-03, 424,000; 2003-04, 424,000.
Projections are produced by the Department on an annual basis. The projections above will, obviously, be updated and revised on that basis to reflect emerging trends in fertility, migration, and progression. The number of births in Ireland fell from approximately 59,000 in 1987 to a low of 48,000 in 1994 but has increased since then to some 52,000 in 1997. If births continue to increase, as assumed in my Department's projections, primary level, enrolment should start to increase again from 2004/05 onwards.
The Central Statistics Office will be producing its population and labour force projections, for the period 2001-31 before the end of March 1998. This publication will include projections of births which the Department will use in its future projections.
