In August 1999, Bord Gais Éireann published a Review of Natural Gas Transmission Capacity Requirements to Year 2025, a copy of which is on the BGE website. The review outlines the findings of the "Gas 2025" project jointly commissioned by my Department and BGE. "Gas 2025" examined a number of gas demand scenarios, all of which envisaged power generation becoming the dominant source of overall gas demand by 2010.
Currently gas demand for power generation represents 59 per cent of overall gas demand. Both the low demand and high demand scenarios in "Gas 2025" estimate that power generation will account for 70 per cent of overall gas demand by 2010.
At present, approximately 35 per cent of all gas demand for electricity generation is met through indigenous supplies from the Kinsale Head Field with the balance coming via the interconnector. As the Kinsale Field depletes over the coming years, and in the absence of further indigenous gas finds, the interconnector will supply 83 per cent of gas demand for electricity by 2003. New gas infrastructure will be required by 2004 to meet rising gas demand. Here there are a number of possibilities – the Corrib Field, if it is developed commercially; further interconnection with Britain; or a north/south pipeline.
The prospects for the Corrib field look promising but the consortium involved in the exploration of the field, Enterprise Oil and partners, has indicated that further appraisals will have to be carried out before a decision can be taken on whether the field is to be developed commercially. Until there is more certainty about its commerciality it is impossible to say what its potential impact on gas supply in Ireland will be.