Michael Creed
Question:44 Mr. Creed asked the Minister for Social, Community and Family Affairs the reason for the discrepancy between the labour force survey and live register; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [6088/00]
Written Answers. - Unemployment Levels.
The quarterly national household survey cannot be compared directly with the live register as they track different events. Consequently, the QNHS level of unemployment for June-August 1999, was 101,100, whereas the average live register for the period was 198,200. There are a number of reasons for this divergence relating to differing methodologies, different timeframe and different definitions.
The quarterly national household survey is estimated from a sample survey of 39,000 households which are then applied to population estimates by the Central Statistics Office. The live register on the other hand is an administrative count of the numbers of persons in receipt of or claiming unemployment payments or signing for credited contribution. It is based on a register of actual persons rather than a sample survey based estimate.
The quarterly national household survey is conducted each quarter on a continuous basis over a 13 week period. The live register is a point-in-time estimate at the end of each month and it may thus include persons who have claimed benefit but whose claim has not yet been decided. It also includes those who have left unemployment but whose claims will not be removed from the register until the next signing day.
The quarterly national household survey uses definitions of the international labour organisation to separate the population into three distinct groups; employed, unemployed and inactive. A person is classified as being in employment if he or she worked for one or more hours for payment or profit, in the previous week. On the other hand the live register includes part-time workers, those who work up to three days a week and seasonal and casual workers.
Furthermore those signing the live register for credits are obliged to be available for work only and may not be actively seeking work. They might thus be classified as inactive according to the quarterly national household survey.
It is possible that those who are long-term unemployed on the live register might fall within the International Labour Organisation category of "discouraged workers" who are classified as economically inactive. These are persons who because of lack of educational qualifications or because they live in an area where employment is scarce, may have ceased active search for employment. In June-August 1999, the CSO esti mated that those who were marginally attached to the labour force numbered 17,700.
The CSO now publishes a wider range of indicators or potential supply in the labour market than the quarterly national household survey headline unemployment figure which is based on criteria drawn up the International Labour Organisation (ILO). These are considerably higher than the headline unemployment estimate. While in the period June-August 1999 the ILO numbers unemployed were estimated at 5.7% of the labour force, the broader indicators of potential labour supply ranged from 6.4% to 10.3%. Using these broader indicators it is clear that the divergence referred to in the question is much less significant than a strict comparison with the ILO measure.