Dáil Éireann debate -
Tuesday, 4 Apr 2000

Vol. 517 No. 3

Written Answers. - Farm Incomes.

Brian O'Shea

Question:

32 Mr. O'Shea asked the Minister for Agriculture, Food and Rural Development his views on a recent report by persons (details supplied) which predicts a significant decrease in farm incomes by the year 2007; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [9683/00]

Minister for Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (Mr. Walsh)

The analysis referred to was prepared by the FAPRI-Ireland Partnership in the context of a medium-term analysis for the agri-food sector. It suggests that farm income will increase by around 16% between now and 2003. This follows a reduction of 12% in 1999. After 2003, FAPRI predicts that income is likely to plateau and, by 2007, aggregate farm income in nominal terms will be similar to 1998 levels. FAPRI suggests that, with an average inflation rate of 3% per year, aggregate income in real terms will be 20% lower in 2007.

Average farm income is calculated by dividing aggregate income by the number of farms. Current trends suggest that there will be a decline in farm numbers, mainly in small farms under 20 hectares, over the period to 2007, so that average farm income in real terms is likely to be similar or higher than in 1998. A report prepared for the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Agriculture, Food and the Marine last year, based on a previous FAPRI analysis, concluded that real income per farm worker was likely to grow at 3% per annum, or a total of 30%, up to 2007. It should also be borne in mind that at least half of farm household income now comes from off-farm activities. This part of farm household income is likely to continue to grow, as the number of part-time farmers increases in the future.