The figure of 200,000 immigrant workers being necessary to achieve the growth targets set out in the national development plan, NDP, originated in a paper prepared by an economic consultant for Forfás. It formed the basis for the report of the Interdepartmental-Agency Group on Immigration Policy which was published in early 2000.
The figure of 200,000 covered a seven year period 2000-2006 and was based on assumptions about the relationship between economic growth and employment growth in the period of the NDP. Other factors such as participation rates and emigration rates from Ireland were also used in the calculations.
The report of the interdepartmental-agency group noted that a continuation of the immigration trends experienced in the late 1990's would suffice to meet our needs. It also noted that, based on recent experience, some 50% of those coming to Ireland would be Irish persons returning. However, the residual pool of Irish abroad both able and willing to return to Ireland is likely to be smaller in the next few years.
More recently, the FÁS-ESRI manpower forecasting study, published in April of this year, which for the first time forecast manpower needs based on likely labour flows over the period, estimated that perhaps slightly more than 150,000 immigrant workers would be required in the period to 2006, depending on growth rates.
In light of the varying projections and of the very high growth and employment figures experienced between 1999 and the present, I have requested my Department prepare a more up-to-date estimate of the extent to which our labour needs will need to be met by immigration in the period to 2006.
In the meantime we will continue to advertise overseas the possibilities of work in Ireland and to facilitate the recruitment of such personnel by employers, as appropriate.
