Vol. 542 No. 6
70 Mr. J. Mitchell asked the Minister for Finance the projected total cost of public sector services in 2002 assuming no policy changes from 2001; the percentage increase involved; and the part of the increase which would be as a result of increases in public sector pay. [25630/01]
The Deputy will be aware that I publish multi-annual budgetary information on both voted current and capital services as part of the budget day documentation. In December last, I published information in relation to 2002 and 2003 in tables 4(a) and 5(a) of the budget book. These figures showed projected total voted spending in 2002 of 27,923 million (IR £21,991 million), an increase of 11.8% over 2001, based on the allocations for 2001 as set out in the budgetary arithmetic. The total projected increase was 2,960 million (IR£2,331 million). While a pay/non-pay breakdown of these projections is not published at budget time, I understand that just under one third of the total increase is related to pay, arising from increases in pay rates together with increased numbers, etc.
These figures are reviewed at various points throughout the year as technical parameters change and are currently being reviewed in the context of the Estimates discussions. These discussions will take account of the most up-to-date technical guidelines, that is, assumptions in relation to take-up of demand-led schemes, projections on inflation affecting the delivery of both current and capital services, demographic trends, public sector pay, etc.
As the Deputy will appreciate it would be inappropriate at this stage to make a statement on the matter in advance of the conclusion of the Estimates process. It is my intention to publish the Abridged Estimates volume, as usual, in November. Multi-annual projections for 2003 and 2004 will be published on budget day.
Has the Minister any reason to believe that the figure of 11.8% growth in 2002 is still valid? Are there indications in his Department whether that figure has increased?
We are currently engaged in the Estimates process and I will publish the Abridged Estimates volume in mid-November. At various stages throughout the year, particularly from April to June each year, the Department of Finance engages with other Departments in reviewing the no policy change projections made the previous autumn and winter – some adjustments are always made there – and a new understanding is arrived at under various schemes. We are currently engaged in the Estimates process which is a combination of no policy change projections and big demands from other line Departments. When the Abridged Estimates volume is completed it will be published as usual in mid-November.
The Minister spoke about one third of the increase being for public sector pay increases which are already committed. Does that include any provision for the benchmarking process?
The figure of 11.8% is part of the estimate arising from the budgetary arithmetic last year. The budgetary arithmetic tables show multi-annual figures for 2002 and 2003. The figure on a no policy change basis at that stage was 11.8%. The estimated one third increase would have related to pay. At that stage no assumption would have been made as to what would be the likelihood of the benchmarking process because the benchmarking review body will not report until mid-June 2002.
Will it be after the election?
By the end of June.
We will have to deal with the problem.
