Enda Kenny
Question:48 Mr. Kenny asked the Taoiseach the estimated projected growth in population for each of the next five years; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [6944/02]
Written Answers. - Population Growth.
The population of the State was estimated at 3.83 million in April 2001. The national population projections published in 1999, which used the 1996 census figures as a basis, contained the following details for 2002 to 2006 under the most likely, M1F2, scenario:
|
Year |
Projected population(millions) |
Annual change(%) |
|
2002 |
3.87 |
1.1 |
|
2003 |
3.91 |
1.0 |
|
2004 |
3.95 |
1.0 |
|
2005 |
3.99 |
1.0 |
|
2006 |
4.03 |
1.0 |
Six different scenarios were used in the projections corresponding to three fertility assumptions taken in conjunction with two migration assumptions. The M1F2 scenario used above is thought to be the most likely of these in the short term. The assumptions used in the compilation of the population projections are as follows:
Fertility:F1: Total fertility rate, TFR, to increase from its 1998 level to 2.0 by 2001 and remain constant thereafter; F2: TFR to remain constant at its 1998 level to 2001, decrease to 1.75 by 2011 and remain constant thereafter; F3: TFR to remain constant at its 1998 level to 2001, decrease to 1.5 by 2011 and remain constant thereafter.
Mortality:Decrease in mortality rates consistent with gains in life expectancy at birth from: 73.0 years in 1995-97 to 77.8 years in 2030-32 for males; 78.7 years in 1995-97 to 84.0 years in 2030-32 for females.
Migration:M1: Immigration continuing but diminishing +20,000 per annum in 1996-2001; +15,000 per annum in 2001-2006; +10,000 per annum in 2006-2011; + 5,000 per annum in 2011-2031; M2: Immigration followed by emigration +15,000 per annum in 1996-2001; + 5,000 per annum in 2001-2006; zero net migration in 2006-2011; 5,000 per annum in 2011-2031.