An assessment of the likely impacts of climate change in Ireland is included as part of the EPA's environmental research programme under the productive sector operational programme of the national development plan. This will model impacts to 2070, based on current global scenarios on greenhouse gas emissions, and preliminary indications are that increases in winter precipitation, on average 11%, will occur over most of Ireland. The greatest increases – up to 20% – are likely in the north-west. It is likely the magnitude and frequency of individual flood events will increase over this period.
Current global modelling of sea level change predicts a rise in the range of nine to 88 centimetres by 2100. For Ireland, the effects are likely to be accentuated where high tides coincide with storm surges. Coastal flood plains are most at risk and the south of the country is likely to be affected first. The impacts of sea level rise will be most apparent in major cities where infrastructure is at risk of inundation.
The Planning and Development Act, 2000, specifically empowers planning authorities to provide in their development plans that development in areas at risk of flooding, whether inland or coastal, may be regulated, restricted or controlled. If development is proposed in a flood-risk area, planning permission can be refused, if necessary. My Department is currently preparing guidelines for planning authorities on development plans, to be published first in draft form for public consultation. The question of indicating areas which are liable to flooding on development plan maps will be considered in this context.
Primary responsibility in relation to flooding rests with the Office of Public Works. My Department's main concern is to ensure that, when adverse conditions arise, local authorities are geared to respond promptly and effectively to help offset the worst effects in relation to those aspects for which they have direct responsibility. In this regard, my Department has included a strategic drainage study of the Dublin region in the current water services investment programme. This is expected to identify policies, strategies and projects for developing a sustainable drainage system for the growing greater Dublin area, including Kildare, Meath and Wicklow. While the study will deal with all drainage issues, it will deal specifically with flooding problems, including those linked to climate change. It will take account of available international and national research and proposed solutions.
The study began in 2001 and is expected to be completed by July 2003. In addition, the consultants have been instructed to produce an interim assessment of short-term flood protection measures for the River Tolka catchment and their costs, which might be possible in advance of the completion of the main report. This interim assessment is expected shortly.