Bernard Allen
Question:402 Mr. Allen asked the Minister for the Environment and Local Government the cost of not complying with the target of capping increase in Ireland's emissions at 13% of the 1990 levels in the 2008-2012 period. [2533/03]
Written Answers. - Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
Bernard Allen
Question:403 Mr. Allen asked the Minister for the Environment and Local Government the consequences for Ireland of failing to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol and time of change. [2534/03]
I propose to take Questions Nos. 402 and 403 together.
Where it is determined that a party is not in compliance with its emissions target under the Kyoto Protocol at the end of the commitment period 2008-12, the following legally binding consequences will apply: 1.3 times the amount of the excess emissions will be deducted from the party's assigned amounts for the next commitment period, that is the period commencing in 2013. In essence, a party will have to make up any shortfall in meeting its Kyoto target, plus 30%, from its total amount of allowed emissions in the second commitment period making that target more stringent; eligibility to sell credits under emissions trading arrangements will be suspended; a compliance action plan must be developed by the party, for international review and assessment, to ensure compliance within three years. Progress reports on implementation of the plan must be submitted annually.
The cost of purchasing assigned amount units to meet any potential non-compliance is difficult to predict in advance, but has been modelled in the range of €2-€20 per tonne of CO2 equivalent. The national climate change strategy estimated that under a business-as-usual scenario, that is, undertake no action, Ireland would be 13 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent above our Kyoto limit per annum. The cost of this overshoot could therefore be €260 million per annum or €1.3 billion for the five year Kyoto period 2008-2012, and together with the 30% penalty provision could reach €1.69 billion in total.
I am satisfied that full implementation of the national climate change strategy over the remainder of the decade, together with any additional measures to be identified in the review of the implementation of the strategy currently under way, will ensure that we are in compliance with the Kyoto Protocol.
Question No. 404 answered with Question No. 166.