I have a range of concerns with regard to the mid-term review of the Common Agricultural Policy, including the impact on employment in the meat processing industry. I made my views clear at the Agriculture Council meeting last month. While negotiations have only just begun on the overall mid-term review proposals, I made clear to the Commission and to the other member states my position on the various elements of the package. I have argued that the proposals as they stand are not necessary, are not in accordance with stated EU multifunctional policy on the EU model of agriculture, are internally contradictory, costly and strategically badly timed.
Following the publication last July of the Commission's proposals for the mid-term review of the CAP, I commissioned FAPRI Ireland to analyse the impact of the proposals on Irish agriculture. With regard to beef, FAPRI forecasts that Irish beef production, after de-coupling of premiums from production, would fall by 12% compared to an average EU decline of 3%. The disproportionate decline in Irish beef production is accounted for by the fact that a significant proportion of beef output comes from the suckler herd which is most dependent on the premium system. FAPRI has concluded that our suckler herd would fall by 30% after de-coupling. Such a reduction in the suckler herd would lead to a general reduction in the throughput in our factories and in our beef output.
With regard to sheepmeat, the forecast fall in production would also be more severe in Ireland than in the EU as a whole. Lamb production would decline by 12% compared to an average decline of 8% in the EU and this decline would come from a fall of some 12% in breeding ewe numbers.