The rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, CPI, has moderated significantly over the course of this year due largely to the combined effect of mortgage interest rate cuts, favourable exchange rate developments and easing services sector inflation. I expect that these factors will continue to have a benign effect on the CPI for the remainder of the year, although rising oil prices may exert some upward pressure on inflation over the next few months.
The Economic Review and Outlook, published in August, revised the budget day forecast for CPI inflation from 4.8% to 3.6% for 2003 as a whole.