A critical task for EirGrid, as the independent transmission system operator, is the provision of an annual winter outlook report. The report provides each year an analysis and prognosis of national electricity generation capacity to meet expected demand over the peak winter months. The 2007 winter outlook report was published by EirGrid last August. Based on its analysis and on detailed engagement with all of the power generators, EirGrid forecasts that electricity generating capacity will be sufficient to meet demand this winter. This is in line with EirGrid's previous medium-term generation adequacy forecasts.
The report assumes a peak generating demand this winter of some 5,250 MW and this compares to the peak generating demand last winter of 5,035 MW. I have been advised by EirGrid that a new customer demand peak of 4,871 MW of generated electricity was reached on Monday, 10 December. The demand was met satisfactorily.
EirGrid also closely monitors the availability of generation capacity on an ongoing basis and provides monthly reports on generation availability levels. EirGrid has advised that some of the units at the ESB plants at Great Island, Poolbeg, Aghada and Turlough Hill have gone on forced outages and in all likelihood most will not now be available over the winter period.
Part of the Tarbert plant, recently on forced outage, has now returned to service and all of that plant is now expected to be available for the winter period. This scenario will result in reduced capacity margins compared with those forecast in the winter outlook report. Generation availability is undoubtedly of continued concern and EirGrid has highlighted the imperative for improved performance. However, the EirGrid analysis remains that the forced outages are broadly in line with probability assessments and, barring further unforeseen significant forced outages, generation capacity will be adequate to meet demand.
As regards outages to date this winter, I am advised that these localised occurrences were not due to a lack of generation adequacy or problems with the transmission system. They were caused by local faults on the low voltage distribution network system, which were repaired as a matter of urgency by ESB networks.
EirGrid advises that the total installed capacity is 6,245 MW, of which EirGrid expects approximately 5,700 MW of capacity will be available over this winter. This includes the new 401 MW plant at Huntstown which has been in operation since October. In addition, available generating capacity of up to 300 MW was imported in 2006 across the interconnector with Northern Ireland.
Additional information not given on the floor of the House.
The capacity to import from Northern Ireland remains available this winter. The contribution of renewable energy to electricity continues to grow. Connected wind capacity is expected to reach over 900 by year end. This represents a very significant increase of over 25% of installed wind capacity since the start of 2007. By 2009 the generation capacity from wind is forecast to reach 1,216.
EirGrid is working closely with generation providers to ensure available capacity is maximised and that the projected capacity margin between demand and supply for the peak period is ensured. EirGrid also operates a range of demand control measures to assist in managing demand at peak times, including working with large commercial users to reduce their demand. This is in the interests of ensuring that domestic consumer supply is maintained.
Security and reliability of electricity supply over the coming years is of paramount importance. The Generation Adequacy Report, recently published by EirGrid, assesses electricity supply and demand between 2008 and 2014. Improved availability of generating capacity and delivery of additional capacity will be key priorities over the period. Two new generation plants at Aghada and Whitegate are scheduled for end 2009, which will deliver capacity of over 800 MW.
The delivery to schedule of the 500 MW east-west interconnector, due by 2012, and the second electricity transmission link with Northern Ireland, due by 2011, will also significantly improve generation adequacy margins. There is also considerable investor interest in providing further generating capacity, both conventional and wind powered. EirGrid's assessment is that, as this investor interest is realised, in conjunction with improved generation availability and the infrastructure developments under way, supply will meet demand.
It is clear however, that energy efficiency and demand side management, including smart metering, will be increasingly critical to ensuring generation adequacy. Energy efficiency is a fundamental part of the Government's strategy to address security of supply as well as energy costs and environmental impact.
