These are very fretful times for families in this country. When the Taoiseach came to power in May 2008 the number on the live register was 202,000. The Central Statistics Office will release the comparable figure this morning at 11 a.m. for January 2010. Will the Taoiseach inform the House of what that figure is?
Leaders’ Questions.
The January live register will show an increase, as it has done every year for the past ten years. The headline total will be 436,900, reflecting five weeks activity. The month on month increase will be 13,300 or 3.1% and the year on year increase will be 110,600 or 33.9%. The year on year increase has fallen again in January, having declined from the peak of 194,700 reported in June 2009. The month on month increase is almost two thirds less than the 36,300 increase reported for January 2009, which also reflected five weeks activity. However, the figure for January 2010 is still the second highest January increase on record. The standardised unemployment rate for January is expected to be 12.7%, up from 12.5% in December 2009. When seasonal factors are taken into account the live register for January is estimated at 434,700. This is a month on month increase of 8,000 or 1.9% since January 2009 and a year on year increase of 110,000 or 34% since January 2009. As the Deputy will be aware, the live register does not refer simply to the level of unemployment. The number of unemployed who are drawing five days a week is 279,000.
Those are devastating figures. Following on the Exchequer returns yesterday, they are a litany of despair from a Government that has failed to put any plan or strategy in place to deal with this situation. There is no point in drifting onwards and looking back in six months to see what might have happened. It is apparent from the Exchequer returns yesterday that every tax is down, but leaping out of those figures is the decline in VAT. The reason for that is, first, consumers have less money to spend, but they are fearful of spending money because no plan, strategy or hope is being given to them by Government.
Governments can make things happen. The Government must do something. For instance, it could examine the reality of literally thousands of retail outlets around the country that are barely hanging on. I predict that at the end of the first quarter several thousand more of them will be closed unless the Government does something. For instance, it could introduce the concept put forward by Fine Gael of a national recovery bank, which would introduce a new stream of credit into the economy that would allow for jobs to be retained, new jobs to be created and businesses to stay open. The Government could do that. It could consider the proposition put forward by Fine Gael of NewERA, a national economic recovery authority, which we reckon would create 100,000 jobs across the country in communications and renewables; jobs for engineers, graphic designers and farmers right across the country. The Government could do that. It could offer people a plan, hope and strategy to show that it is able to do something about a situation that is a litany of despair and disaster.
A total of 60,000 young people under the age of 25 have left the country. If the valve of emigration was not open the real figure for unemployment would be more than 500,000. Those young people are gone. They are in Australia, Canada, America and Britain. They are doing jobs for which they are completely over-qualified because the Government has failed to put any plan or strategy in place. It is clear from the evidence that the Government's economic plan, banking plan and stimulus have failed. What does the Government propose to do about that?
What is Fine Gael proposing? Deputy Kenny is undermining confidence every day.
This is the end of the first——
Deputy Kenny is being negative.
Deputy Kenny should be allowed to speak without interruption.
That is fine until one talks to the despairing parents and young people who see no hope coming from a Government that has no plan in place. I am offering the Taoiseach assistance in terms of an economic recovery authority, NewERA, and a national recovery bank to get new credit flowing into the system. If the Government is serious about making things happen it needs to change its ways and bring about a stimulus and an injection of Government action so that people all over the country will have some hope or confidence that the Government is in control of the economy and that it is not drifting endlessly, where all they hear is talk of further tax increases, levies and pay cuts. There is despair and depression all around.
Is that Fine Gael's manifesto?
Thousands of people are willing to put their shoulder to the wheel but they need hope and confidence from a Government that has no plan in place.
People have no confidence in Deputy Kenny.
In respect of 436,000 people on the live register, what is the Government's intention in terms of providing a stimulus to create jobs and give some confidence to people all over this island who are in absolute despair at what the Government is mumbling and talking about for the past 18 months? The Government's record of an increase in unemployment from 202,000 in May 2008 to 436,000 now speaks for itself. It is a disaster.
Deputy Kenny cannot even answer a straight question.
Deputy Kenny's accounts of despair are not where the people are at. They recognise that the country is being led in the right direction by taking the necessary——
The Taoiseach is deluding himself.
Who is the Taoiseach talking to?
He must be in the "head shops".
The Taoiseach can dream on.
The Taoiseach should be allowed to speak without interruption please.
Regaining our competitive edge is essential to protect jobs and to grow jobs in the future. Driving forward with enterprise, exports and employment is the only way forward, but the stabilisation of the public finances is an absolute prerequisite for that. This country is doing that. It is being referred to both at home and abroad as the right way forward to deal with the situation we are in. It is important to point out also that it is only by regaining competitiveness through the reductions in cost that have taken place and which will have to continue, and support from Enterprise Ireland and FÁS, that we will go forward. FÁS has brought forward employment action plans.
We know all about them.
People are referred to the FÁS employment action plan and 60% of them leave the live register. Of 70,000 referrals, 50,000 came off the register. We have to continue with the increased training and supports we are providing. More than 128,000 people received them in 2009 and will do so again in 2010. The bottom line is the Government wants to make sure we regain competitiveness in this economy. That is the process by which the economic recovery will come and all the negativity and attacks from the Fine Gael leader will not change that.
That is the reality.
The country will change the Government..
The Taoiseach does not seem to get it. Ever since the budget, one cannot turn on a radio or television or open a newspaper but there is somebody from Fianna Fáil telling us that we have turned the corner and that recovery is about to happen. I wish that were the case but there is little sign of it.
Yesterday's Exchequer figures do not show many signs of recovery, even though they were for the two months leading into Christmas when there should have been an improvement. Today's unemployment figures show that almost 440,000 people are on the live register. According to the redundancy figures, 319 people have lost their jobs every day this year. None of those people will say there is a recovery.
It did not have to be like this. At the time the Labour Party proposed that a €1.15 billion jobs fund should be included in the budget. The Government did not do that. We argued that there should be a new national development plan with an emphasis on shovel ready projects such as schools, hospitals, public transport and perhaps some public works measures to deal with the flooding problems but we did not get that. The Government apparently reviewed the national development plan but it has not published it and we were told no new road project will start this year. Deputy Ciarán Lynch brought forward a Bill that would reduce commercial rents to give some help to those in the retail sector. The Government again would not accept it. I picked up my newspaper today and I saw that some of the property investors who may benefit from these high commercial rents will now benefit from interest free loans from Anglo Irish Bank. We argued that there should be investment in education and training and, as I pointed out to the Taoiseach yesterday, there are two applicants for every place being offered by the Central Applications Office this year.
It seems that what has been happening is that since the budget the Government parties have been basking in the praise they have received from some of the right wing economists embedded with them but we are seeing no action on the jobs front. The Taoiseach said it is not as bad as the figures are suggesting but it is worse. Does he know that one out of every three young men aged between 21 and 24 is on the dole? For how much longer does he think we can sustain that either economically or socially? When will we see a serious effort by the Government to get a jobs strategy in place, get the real economy moving again and get people back to work?
I refute the point made by the Labour Party leader that no stimulus is being provided by Government. A total of €6.5 billion is being provided in our capital programme this year. With regard to road works, €1.5 billion will be spent on road construction this year.
No new projects.
How will the potholes be fixed?
The Taoiseach, without interruption, please.
I am giving the facts. If the Deputies do not want to hear them, that is their problem. With regard to higher education, more than €2 billion will be invested this year. That is the sort of investment we are putting in at a time we have a record high deficit of 11% to contend with and we have maintained a 5% capital investment programme. That work is maintaining 80,000 jobs in the economy on a range of infrastructure projects, including school building. The school building programme will employ 7,500 people this year. That is what is being done by Government.
In respect of the live register, 70,000 people are in casual or part-time employment and they are on the register for perhaps two days a week as well as being employed for three days. A total of 279,000 people are on the live register five days per week while 20,000 provide credited contributions and do not obtain a payment and 75,000 have either been suspended or having their claims processed at the moment. A total of 22,000 of the 75,000 claimants are on supplementary welfare allowance, which gives an indication of those who will qualify in respect of the applications before the officials. That all indicates clearly there is a great deal of movement on and off the register. It is not the same people and I acknowledge an unemployment rate of 12.7% compares with 1995, the last time the rate was 12.7%. Deputy Quinn was Minister for Finance at the time.
The rate was coming down. That is the difference.
Those were different times.
One thousand jobs a week were being created.
With regard to where we are now, the idea that the Government is not involved in seeking to protect jobs is a nonsense. By taking the decisions we have taken and by improving competitiveness in the economy by 7% per unit labour cost compared to our competitors, we are seeking to protect the 1.85 million jobs in the economy. Were we to pursue the policies promulgated by the Labour Party over the past year where we would increase our indebtedness, we would have fewer jobs and we would not be able to maintain competitiveness in this economy.
That is untrue. Why does the Taoiseach not prove that?
That is rubbish.
The Government is giving that money to the banks.
The Taoiseach, without interruption, please.
Jobs can be created in recession by spending. It is not possible in the context of the public finances to go beyond——
There are only jobs for the boys.
While cutting the back to education allowance.
Interest rates are on the increase.
Shouting me down will not win the Deputies' argument.
Allow the Taoiseach to reply.
This Administration is applying a higher level of capital investment than any one of which Deputy Gilmore was a member.
That is abracadabra economics.
Absolutely.
The Deputy would know all about that.
The Taoiseach seems to think he can wish away the number of people who are out of work because of the number of days and so on they are on the live register. If he wants to get into the figures, there are also people who are unemployed but not on the live register because they no longer receive benefits and they are no longer reflected in the figures. The reality is the number of people out of work is increasing.
The Taoiseach has argued repeatedly that somehow we are the unwitting victim of some global forces that have hit this country from out of the blue that he did not see coming. This is a very Irish recession. Ireland was the first to go into recession. We went into recession on 1 January 2008 followed by the rest of the eurozone on 1 April 2008 and the UK on 1 July 2008. All these countries are coming out of recession. The US came out of recession on 30 June last year, France and Germany exited recession on 31 March last year and the UK, the last of the G7 countries to come out of recession, exited on 30 September 2009 but we are still stuck in recession.
The economic principle the Taoiseach's Government has inflicted on this country is that when it comes to recession, we are first in and we are last out. The reason for that is due to the fact that his incompetent Government got us into this problem in the first place and it is not due to global forces. There is a complacency in Government, particularly since the budget. We have this attitude of wanting to hear the praise from the embedded and that we have turned the corner and we are out of recession. Tell that to the 319 people who have lost their jobs every day since the beginning of this year. Tell that to the almost 440,000 people on the live register. Tell the one of out every three young men on the dole or their worried parents that we are out of recession and we are turning the corner.
I want us to be out of recession and I want recovery quickly, as does everybody——-
Will the Deputy print the money?
We cannot print our own.
The back of the choir is starting up.
The Deputies ran away last night.
It is easy for them to laugh when they could not provide a seconder for an obvious motion to deal with a simple issue. The Government has looked after bankers, builders and developers.
The Deputy must address his remarks through the Chair.
It has looked after the better off and it has ignored, run away from, neglected and abandoned——
They ran away last night.
——those who are out of work and who need some hope.
Deputies
Hear, hear.
Rhetoric.
Deputy Mattie McGrath — alone he stands.
I do not agree with Deputy Gilmore's revision of history. Throughout that period he was involved in promoting spending plans far greater than any this Government ever proposed, yet he now comes in here and suggests we were spending too much. We will let the record speak for itself.
(Interruptions).
It was spending too much on bankers.
The Taoiseach without interruption.
I also reject the Deputy's contention that there is complacency in the Government about these matters. He talks about unemployment, but when the likes of him were in office and Governments deferred the necessary decisions to correct the public finances, we saw unemployment rise to 20% or 22%.
Who got the public finances into this mess?
Our refusal to defer those necessary decisions and our effort to secure people's futures by taking the right decisions now, however difficult they may be, are the means through which we can ensure jobs are created again in the future.
It is not working.
We recognised — in fact, it was set out in the budgetary strategy outlined by the Minister for Finance — that unemployment could rise to 13.5% this year.
The Taoiseach was the Minister for Finance who got us into this mess.
However, we are also saying that growth can return to the economy this year.
He increased VAT.
If we had not taken the decisions we did, we would not see the return of growth; we would see Ireland moving deeper into recession. I remind Deputies that there are other countries with high unemployment. Spain, for example, has an unemployment rate of 19%. To suggest that Ireland is the outlier on unemployment is not correct.
What about the performing countries? That should be our target.
I acknowledge that the reduction in employment in the construction industry has had a major effect on our unemployment figures. The required stimulus is being provided through the 5% capital investment plan on which we have agreed, even at a time of unprecedented financial and economic difficulty. Such funding of employment support agencies and others will continue, as will the increased training and supports we are providing in education and through FÁS.
We will get more of the same.
What we have from the Labour Party and others is the continuing contention that we can spend our way out of this recovery, when we patently cannot.
And invest our way out of it.