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The purpose of the first session of this evening's meeting is the pre-Agriculture and Fisheries Council engagement with the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Deputy McConalogue. The Minister is accompanied by his officials: Ms Sinéad McSherry, who is an assistant secretary general in the seafood and marine division; Ms Anna O'Sullivan, who is a principal officer in the sea-fisheries policy and management division; Dr. Ciaran Kelly, who is the director of fisheries ecosystem advisory services with the Marine Institute, Ms Michelle Twomey of the seafood policy and development division and Dr. Emmet Jackson of Bord Iascaigh Mhara's economic and strategic services unit.
I welcome the Minister and his officials to the meeting. The Minister's opening statement has been circulated to the members. I will allow the Minister five minutes to read it or give a synopsis of it and then we will proceed to a question-and-answer session.
In that respect, I welcome the Commission's recent proposal to amend the 2012 regulation on measures to address unsustainable fishing of shared stocks by non-EU countries.
Moving on to the sustainability impact assessment itself, an open consultation process was initiated on 16 September, whereby stakeholders were asked to submit their comments and observations on the ICES scientific advice for fish stocks for 2025 and on the European Commission's communication "Sustainable fishing in the EU: state of play and orientations for 2025" and its accompanying staff working document. Five submissions to the public consultation were received and will be published on the fishingnet.ie website.
In addition, I convened a meeting of fisheries stakeholders on 9 October. The purpose of this meeting was to give a further opportunity to stakeholders to outline their positions on the many aspects of the communication and the scientific advice. I thank all stakeholders for their contributions to this impact assessment. The stakeholders set out a range of positions. However, there were also many commonalities. I agree with many of the sentiments expressed through the consultation process, all of which, I consider, have the same objective of sustainable fishing and the protection of our fishing resource and our marine ecosystem for future generations. Stakeholders highlighted their concerns regarding mackerel and other vulnerable stocks, citing the need to take steps to rebuild and protect these stocks. The importance of setting TACs in accordance with fishing at maximum sustainable yield was underlined.
The Marine Institute and BIM have made invaluable contributions to the assessment of the ICES advice, which is contained in the sea-fisheries sustainability impact assessment before the committee today. I would like to briefly set out the findings contained in this assessment. From a purely biological perspective, the Marine Institute's view, which coincides with the ICES view, is that there has been an improvement in the status of some fish stocks. However, others remain a concern. In the impact assessment, the Marine Institute summarises the pressure on the 74 stocks which will be dealt with in the 2025 stock book, and compares this assessment with the same evaluation presented in previous years' stock books. The number of sustainably fished stocks for 2024 is 39. In terms of percentages, this is an increase from 50% of all stocks to 53%. The number of stocks fished above maximum sustainable yield is currently 17. The number of stocks with unknown status remains at 18.
While challenges remain, it is welcome to see the general improvement in stocks over time. As recently as 2013, only 20 of these stocks were sustainably fished. Last year this increased to 39. The specific details for all stocks are available in the sustainability impact assessment before the committee today. Further information on the fish stocks of interest to Ireland are available in the stock book, which is prepared annually by the Marine Institute and is available on its website.
As I indicated earlier, BIM has based the socioeconomic assessment on the ICES advice, where available. In cases where the ICES advice is not yet available, or where ICES had provided zero catch advice, an estimate based on last year's TACs was assumed, so that the assessment of these stocks could be carried out.
ICES advice for nephrops, otherwise known as prawns, is expected to be released on 31 October. In advance of the advice, to assist consideration of the stocks in the Celtic Sea and the Irish Sea, different scenarios of an increase of 10% or decrease of 5% were examined, as this is an important stock for our fishing industry. Therefore, it is important to highlight that BIM's estimates may change, depending on the final TACs agreed between the EU and UK. As this advice is for single stock assessment, we can expect significant changes for stocks in mixed fisheries where a particular stock is depleted. This is the case for cod stocks around the coast. The TACs for demersal stocks where cod is a by-catch will be set to support the protection and rebuilding of such depleted stocks.
Overall, if the TACs were to be agreed on the basis of the assumptions I have mentioned, we would see a net increase in fishing opportunity of 9% by volume in tonnes and an increase of 6% by value. For the demersal whitefish sector, this would mean an increase of 26% in volume of fishing activity and an increase in 16% by value. For the pelagic sector, this would result in an increase of 4% by volume but a 3% reduction by value, with a direct income reduction of €3.6 million. This is due primarily to the reduction in the mackerel TAC, even with the proposed increase in the horse mackerel quota and its associated increased value.
With regard to the processing and ancillary sectors, in addition to the direct losses to the fleet through quota reductions, income would also be lost to the processing sector as a direct result of reduced catches, and to a number of ancillary industries, such as net making, chandlery, engineering and refrigeration. Quota reductions obviously have a knock-on effect for employment, and BIM further estimates that these reductions could impact 38 full-time equivalent jobs. This could occur either through reduced incomes, partial lay-offs or redundancies in the seafood sector. The upstream impact of this, considering indirect and induced effects of the broader seafood sector, is potentially 99 employees.
The Hague preferences, which are additional amounts of quota that Ireland claims for important whitefish stocks when the TACs fall below set levels, are negotiated annually at the December Agriculture and Fisheries Council. Following the UK's withdrawal from the EU, Ireland is now the only party that benefits from the Hague preferences, which further complicates matters. We cannot take the Hague preferences for granted. Many member states object strenuously to their application as the additional quota for Ireland comes off their allocations. These objections are intensifying in the face of quota reductions in other member states arising from both the trade and co-operation agreement and reductions due to scientific advice. Ensuring that the preferences are applied will be a key political objective of mine in these negotiations.
The sea-fisheries sustainability impact assessment before us today provides an important overview of the state of stocks and possible implications for 2025. I thank and acknowledge all those who contributed to the production of this impact assessment. While the impact assessment is based on the ICES advice rather than the TACs proposed by the Commission, it does highlight the potential for significant impacts on the fishing industry. There are some stocks where ICES has issued advice for catches. However, with the implementation of the landing obligation and the requirement to land all catches, including by-catches, from such stocks this would lead to choke situations in mixed fisheries. The EU and UK previously established specific TACs for by-catches of these stocks. They highlight the difficultly of fishing all stocks in a mixed fishery at maximum sustainable yield at the same time. We need to strike a balance between the potential for severe socioeconomic impacts and the need to achieve good environmental status for these stocks. I will be supportive of a similar situation as was taken in previous years for these vulnerable stocks.
I thank Dr. Emmet Jackson from BIM, Dr. Ciaran Kelly from the Marine Institute and my team for putting this together. I thank committee members for taking the time to come in and engage today. This is an important engagement on how we step forward to get the best outcome possible for our fisheries sector for the remainder of this year and for next year's catches.