I thank the Chairman for this opportunity to talk to members of the committee about the current scientific advice on this area. In the next ten to 15 minutes I hope to deal with fish stock assessment, how scientific advice on it has evolved, the concept of mixed fisheries and area based advice, which is new this year. I will examine the critical stocks in the Celtic Sea area, the Irish Sea area, the Donegal and Rockall area, and mention briefly the pelagic stocks and industry initiated programmes, which will be an important component of the advice for next year.
In terms of scientific advice, the sea areas around Ireland are divided into a number of boxes that are ICES divisions. The important ICES divisions around Ireland are area six off Donegal and Rockall and area seven off the west and south coasts and into the Irish Sea. In each of these boxes cod, whiting, haddock and all the commercial species are assessed. The reason those boxes are there is that it is easy to collect landing statistics from them.
The fact that cod is in the Irish Sea, or in "7A" as we call it does not mean that a stock is confined to one box. In the Irish Sea cod is confined to 7A, but in the Celtic Sea cod covers a number of boxes. In some cases there is a box associated with a stock and in other cases there are a range of boxes associated with a stock.
In terms of how this scientific advice works and the annual cycle, members will note from the chart on display that in the case of cod in the Irish Sea each national fisheries laboratory collects data, carries out research surveys and collects all the information it can on the cod stock. These are then summarised in each national laboratory to give us an indication of the cod stock; how much cod was caught in the survey and the age profile of the cod species caught. All these figures give us an indication of the health status of the stock.
It is no good Ireland doing national stock summaries on its own. We cannot access cod stocks on our own because fish do not recognise international boundaries. We need to work with our international colleagues and pool all our data. All such data is pooled and when that process is complete we need an international forum where all the scientists can meet to carry out their stock assessments. The international forum we use is ICES, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Scientists meet at meetings of ICES, which is based in Copenhagen. They bring all their data and carry out assessments on the various stocks to give the latest indication of the state of the stock. They try to project, as in the case of forecasting the weather, what will happen in a year or two years' time based on the information they have.
When these assessments are carried out the scientific advice is then formulated by two groups. One is an ICES group called ACFM, the Advisory Committee on Fisheries Management formulates the scientific advice. There is also another group that the EU Commission uses, the STECF, the Scientific Technical Economic Committee for Fisheries. It also examines the advice and formulates it own advice. This advice goes to the European Commission which then formulates proposed TACs. These are debated at the European Council in December, the outcome of which is the annual TACs. Out of those annual TACs we get our national quotas and technical conservation measures, which could be proposals on closed areas or increased mesh size. In a sense, they are allied measures with the national quotas.
With regard to where are we in the process this year, I draw members' attention to the two bright yellow boxes on the map on display. The advice from ICES's ACFM and the EU-STECF has gone to the Commission, which is examining it and formulating its TACs for next year as we speak.
How do we evaluate the state of fish stocks? Through data scientists collect, we look at four main issues. The first is how much has been taken from the stock in terms of the fish that are landed and those thrown back into the sea as discards. This gives us important information. The second is, fishing mortality and how much of the stock is removed by fishing by both Irish and international vessels. One of the most important signals scientists look for is recruitment. This is effectively the number of baby fish that are born in a certain year which are the commercial catch of the future. It is critical that we get a handle on recruitment. The other important issue is the spawning stock biomass. We have to ask, what is the size of the mature fish and what is its tonnage as this has big implications for recruitment? We are noticing now that as stock size declines, we are getting impaired recruitment in several critical stocks. There is a strong relationship, therefore, between recruitment - the number of fish born - and spawning stock - the number of mature fish in the population.
A big dilemma has come to the fore this year and was present last year. Cod is not caught on its own, as there is no clean fishery for it. We must remember that during fishing, many stocks are caught. In the Irish Sea, cod, whiting and sole are known as red stocks because scientists are concerned at their levels. Other stocks such as haddock, nephrops and plaice are also in the Irish Sea and they are not in such a bad state. The dilemma, however, is that if one wants to protect cod, how does one allow fishing for haddock and nephrops without endangering the cod stocks? This has exercised scientists' and managers' minds. It has come to the fore this year in mixed fishery analysis and area-based advice. In these mixed fisheries, there are a number of driver stocks that are in a critical state which managers must preserve. Fishermen get annoyed when they see plenty of haddock, but the dilemma is that the cod stocks must be protected and therefore they are not allowed fish haddock. This will have implications on the advice for next year.
The Marine Institute assesses more than 40 stocks around the Irish coast. Rather than going through them all individually, I wish to pick on demersal stocks which are in a critical state. The three areas that I wish to highlight are the Irish Sea, the Celtic Sea, which includes the west of Ireland, and the Donegal-Rockall fishery. In the Irish Sea, cod and whiting stocks are the two that are in a critical state. Scientists are not so worried about the state of haddock and nephrops stock. The state of the former stocks will drive the agenda on advice for next year. The dilemma is that haddock and nephrops are okay, but if we want to protect cod and whiting, the former stocks will suffer. In the Celtic Sea, the situation is very much the same. Cod, whiting, hake, sole and plaice stocks are in a critical state and need to be protected. However, there are stocks there that do not need that protection. Again, the dilemma is that it is a mixed fishery. It is similar in the Donegal fisheries area. Cod and whiting stocks are the drivers that will formulate the advice for next year.
When scientists attempt to appraise the state of the stock in the Irish Sea, they check landings, fishing mortality - what is taken out of a stock - recruitment and the state of the spawning stock biomass - the number of mature fish. In fishery stock management we have various safe thresholds for fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass, based on FAO codes of conduct and various international agreements. In the Irish Sea the safe threshold for fishing mortality currently stands at 0.72. However, since the mid-1980s, the fishing mortality for Irish Sea cod stocks has been way over that safe threshold while spawning stock biomass has been below its threshold. More alarming is the number of baby fish coming into the cod population in recent years which has been very low. The prognosis for the stock is poor because of this low recruitment. This will drive the advice for next year. If we want to protect cod, we have to take note of the low stock size, the high fishing mortality rate and poor numbers of juvenile fish entering the stock.
For the whiting stock, the statistics are very similar. The stock is well below the threshold for a safe line in spawning stock biomass, while fishing mortality is very high. Landings have declined and the recruitment figure has been low in recent years. As stated, there is a relationship between the stock size and the number of baby fish born. Given the state of the cod and whiting stocks, the TACs for next year will be reduced. In order to protect them, other stocks, which are regarded to be in a healthy state, are also going to take reductions in TACs. The sole stocks in the Irish Sea are also in a poor state. The number of baby fish coming into the sole stocks is at its lowest ever.
In the Donegal-Rockall-west of Scotland fishery area, the state of the cod stocks will drive the advice on TACs. The cod stock size has plummeted since the 1990s and is well below the optimal threshold. Fishing mortality is high and well above the threshold for safe fishing. The number of baby fish among scientists coming into the population is causing more concern among scientists. The stock size is so low that recruitment has been impaired. Measures are needed to rebuild this stock and this will drive the advice for this fishery area. The whiting stocks in this area, though not as bad as cod, show a high fishing mortality. In this fishery, discarding of catch has always been a problem. Industry initiated programmes can decrease these high rates of discarding and these will form management plans for next year.
The driver for the advice for the Celtic Sea fishery will be cod stocks. Recruitment in cod stocks are at their lowest ever. Spawning stock biomass is well below the safe threshold, with a high fishing mortality rate. It is not as critical as the Irish Sea or the west of Scotland, but it remains bad for cod. The haddock stock figures in this fishery emphasise the dilemma we have. The fishing mortality rate is high and the spawning stock biomass, relatively so. However, the incoming recruitment in the stock for 2002 is very high. Fishermen then ask why they are not allowed to fish haddock. The reason they cannot is that we must protect the cod stocks. If haddock is caught, it increases fishing mortality rates of cod stocks. This is the mixed-fishery dilemma we have.