I thank the committee for the opportunity to give this presentation. I remind members that this is the same presentation slightly shortened, that was given to the salmon commission, to five of the regional fisheries boards and at four public presentations to commercial fishermen and to angling groups. It is well-travelled at this stage. It is good that this committee will hear the same presentation, which means we can all sing from the same hymn book.
I want to do three things today. I want to give some background as to why this process has evolved, to show the methodology involved and some of the numbers we are talking about. We have given the committee a written submission to back this up, which is based on a number of publications including a scientific paper published in the ICES Journal of Marine Science. Essentially, the process for the scientific group started with the salmon management task force in 1996. Unlike what happened previously, the salmon management task force outlined the basic management concepts we should adopt. It stated in its report that sustainable fishing can take place if there is a surplus of fish over spawning requirements. That was an important statement because essentially it said that there is an optimal number of fish or spawners for any given river. That was to define the conservation limit. In addition, when the conservation limit is being met, the surplus to spawning requirements is maximised. That is another important point because once the surplus is maximised it may be harvested sustainably.
The scientific advice we are trying to give is based on achieving this conservation limit to maximise the returns for all the stakeholders. To give some gloomy news, this is not a process happening only in Ireland. I am showing two panels. They may be slightly difficult to see from the back of the room, but the trend is not difficult to make out. This is the southern European stock complex, representing the total number of fish available prior to any fishing taking place. It is called the pre-fishery abundance. From the first panel, on one-sea winter fish, it will be seen clearly that the decline in numbers has moved from 3.5 million to 1 million since 1970. That is a very steep decline and includes the UK, France, Ireland and the other countries such as Spain and Portugal from where we get information.
The second panel, on two-sea winter or multi-sea winter fish, the larger fish which stay at sea two years or longer, shows more clearly the decline in this stock complex. That is quite a steady decline and again the number equivalents are from about 2.5 million down to 500,000 fish. Clearly there is international concern. The group responsible for the international management of these fisheries is NASCO, the North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organisation. Two years after the salmon commission stated what the salmon limits should be, NASCO picked up on a similar issue and said stocks should be maintained above conservation limits by the use of management targets. Nationally and internationally we are now setting the scene for a new type of management regime that we are just beginning to develop. In 1999 the National Salmon Commission was established under the Act. It represents the Government and managers including the Central Fisheries Board and the regional fisheries as well as the other important stakeholders, the commercial and recreational fisheries groups, processors and the aquaculture industry.
The role of the National Salmon Commission is to assist and advise on conservation management protection and development and to recommend schemes, including the tagging of salmon and TACs and quotas. That is what it was asked to do. Under the Act the commission, in its wisdom, set up a standing scientific committee, whose brief was to advise the National Salmon Commission and assist it on all technical and scientific matters as regards the performance of its function. We were asked to advise on a number of matters. The process involved is as follows. We get estimates of the total catch from the catch records. We then try to estimate the total returns which generated that catch and the spawners, in other words what was left behind after the catch was taken. We then estimate a conservation limit. In other words we must determine whether the number of spawners meets the requirements. We then have to incorporate a risk assessment element because, as several people have pointed out, scientific advice is based on estimates. We have to get a feel for the risk element, in terms of the uncertainty of the data and the process being used. Finally, we must recommend a precautionary catch that we believe will preserve the stock, or some other stock rebuilding strategy.
That is the process, the first part of which has now been simplified. We have introduced a carcase tagging and log book scheme and we are getting far better information back from that process than previously. The national coded wire tagging programme, which comprises a tiny 2 millimetre tag with a code which is injected into the nose of migrating smolts before they leave the rivers, provides several items of information. Due to the fact that we have clipped the adipose fin at the back, we are able to identify these fish when they return as adults. We have been tagging smolts in all rivers around the coast fairly consistently since 1980. Our colleagues from Northern Ireland are tagging smolts from the River Bush.
In many rivers we have a direct index of the number of fish returning, how many are being caught and how many are going up the river within the season and outside the season, in other words taking account of late runs and any other things happening over time. In many rivers, we count all the fish returning throughout the season. It is important to realise that the tagging programme is only as good as the recovery programme. Under the programme that was set up in 1980, we have been sampling between 30% and 50% of the declared catch annually, which means that between 100,000 and 200,000 fish are physically examined for the presence of these tags. That is quite a robust scanning programme.
One of the most important items of information — which was alluded to earlier — is that if we tag fish from a certain river, for example, the River Liffey, the fish may be caught in counties Mayo, Donegal, Galway, Kerry and elsewhere. That is the potential the fisheries around the coast have for catching fish from the River Liffey.
To give another example, while most of the fish from the River Slaney are caught in the south, they may be caught in Donegal, Mayo, Galway, Kerry and west Cork. While fish from the River Lee may be caught to a lesser degree in counties Donegal, Mayo and Galway, they can be caught in counties Kerry and Cork and in the southern region. Fish from the River Shannon may be caught in counties Donegal, Mayo, Galway, Limerick, Kerry and Cork and in the south. The fish from the River Corrib in the west may be caught in counties Donegal, Mayo, Galway, Kerry and west Cork.
In the County Mayo fisheries at Burrishoole, where we have a superb data set from 1980, we know that significant numbers of these fish are caught in counties Donegal and Mayo, and that quite a high proportion are caught in the Galway-Limerick and Cork-Kerry areas and also in the south. While the majority of fish from the River Erne are taken in County Donegal, they still are caught in Mayo, Galway, Kerry and Cork. What I have been illustrating is the mixed stock nature of fisheries. Each of the fisheries from Donegal to the south can take stocks from any other region. A mixed stock fishery is where the fish do not necessarily originate in the region.
We also generate other information from the tagging. We know the number of fish being taken in the fisheries and we know the number returning to the rivers, we can estimate what we call the average catch rate — that is, the total catch divided by the total number available. We tag wild fish as well as hatchery fish. There is a difference between the two. In 1980 about 70% of the wild fish were being caught when they came back to the coast in commercial fisheries and the percentage for hatchery fish was 90%. At present, the situation is much better. We are catching between 40% to 50% of the wild fish and between 60% and 78% of the hatchery fish. That is important because it means that 50% of the wild fish returning to the coast are caught.
How do we estimate spawners? If we assume that, based on our index rivers, 50% of fish returning to the coast are likely to be caught and we know the district catch is 10,000 fish, then 50% is equivalent to 10,000 fish and the total return, 100%, is 20,000 fish. In order to obtain a figure for the number of spawners, we take the total minus the catch, which gives the figure for the number of fish, 10,000, left behind. That is a simple example but obviously it is never as easy as that. In some years, the figures may be higher or lower. It can also happen that 60% of the fish returning are likely to be caught. If we take the example of a district catch of 10,000 fish then 60% is equivalent to 10,000 fish, then 100% is equivalent to 16,666 fish and the number of spawners is the total minus the catch, which is 6,666.
It is important that we have catch rates. We have figures for the catch in every district in the country and we have an estimate of the catch rate from the tagging programme, which means that for every district we can generate the number of spawners coming back to the district. We need to measure that off against a standard and what we measure it off against is what we call the conservation limit. Essentially, what we see in the image projected from the computer is a geo-rectified image, a picture taken from an aeroplane which is overlaid with the river feature on it. Due to the fact that it is digital format, we can measure the level of water in the river. In other words, we can measure what is called the wetted area.
The number of spawners a river can accommodate is restricted by the size of the river and, after that, one does not get a higher output for the level of input. Essentially, we have calculated the wetted area of each river in Ireland, then transposed conversation limits for European index rivers to Irish rivers, including the Burrishoole and the Bush, and we are able to populate every stream in Ireland with the correct number of spawners that would be required to keep it at its conservation limit. As we can do this in respect of every stream, we can then sum it up for all the streams in a particular district and arrive at a second very important number, namely, the conservation limit required for the district and the number of fish that those rivers can accommodate before they begin to be lost or, in other words, the level at which any number over and above the figure is a surplus.
Essentially, we have a process that includes a risk of not meeting the conservation limit. What do we mean by that? In recent years the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, ICES, has been trying to develop this approach and it rolled out the first set of risk assessments two years ago. We try to keep the national programme in line with the international programme because obviously we are getting the best scientists involved internationally and nationally to get the process going.
Why are there risks involved? If one takes the average return and spawners, what one is actually saying is that, on average, that return will come back to the country. There is a 50% chance, if one takes the return figure, that one will meet the conservation limit. This is a risky management strategy to adopt, namely, that one will be right 50% of the time. Another element of uncertainty in our data is that we know females, who are the egg carriers, are more important than the males and we must meet this 60:40 requirement of females to males. In order to meet this requirement, more fish than normal must be allowed to return to the river.
The final part of the risk assessment is that we now have conservation limits for individual rivers. We would prefer to see all rivers in a district meeting the conservation limit, rather than there just being a conglomerate. This also affects the overall conservation limit. The advice from ICES is clear. It states that falling below the conservation limit should be avoided with a high probability. The figure of 50% is not a high probability. What ICES has adopted, and what we have followed, is that the figure for salmon should be at least 75% so that there is a chance, given a certain catch option, that the conservation limit will be met. We have adjusted our conservation limit in 2005 to meet this objective in line with the developing advice from ICES. The Minister of State is correct, we introduced that this year. We did not develop the process the previous year because we were waiting for ICES to develop it. The scientific process involves taking the annual catch, getting returns on the coded wire tagging and estimating the average returns. From a stock and recruitment analysis and from the transport of stock and recruitment data from the wetted area to the rivers, we get conservation limits. We know the average returns on the spawners and we know the conservation limit. How are we meeting this conservation limit? Depending on the answer to that question, we apply harvest guidelines. Once we have decided the harvest guideline, we produce a number for each district, which is the precautionary catch advice.
Last year's conservation limit of the national stock was around 200,000 fish, while the new conservation limit is higher than that, as the Minister suggested. At a national level, it has not been raised that much, although it has been raised significantly in some districts. We have been below the conservation limit every year since 1990 and we are only gradually beginning to reach it. We can take Lismore as an example of the type of input data available to us. In Lismore, there are seven rivers, with the Blackwater river the most predominant while the Bride river is also significant. Although the other rivers contribute in only a small way to the number of spawners, they are still required. We know, therefore, the amount of spawners required on a river by river basis. There has been a big decline in the returns in Lismore since 1990. In later years, the situation has stabilised but not improved. The spawners were above conservation limits up to 1980, but have gone below the conservation limits consistently since 1990. This year, we gave fishermen harvest options from zero to 30,000 fish and the probability of meeting the conservation limit at those catch options. We have taken the advice of ICES to take a 75% chance of meeting the conservation limit. The catch equivalent of a 75% chance of meeting the conservation limit is 7,000 fish. However, the average catch for the period has been more than 15,000 fish. That means that since 2000, the chance of meeting the conservation limit is below 25% at that catch rate. The scientific advice is clear that we fishermen have to reduce the catch to about 7,000 fish.
The second example is that of Ballinakill. There are 13 rivers here and quite a number of them are important in the overall distribution of the rivers. In this case, the trend is slightly opposite. There was an increase in returns from 1990 to 2000, but it has decreased since then. The spawners were below the conservation limit for a long period and are currently only just above the limit. The 75% risk suggests that there are 9,000 fish to catch in the Ballinakill district. The average catch has only been 7,308, which includes rods. There is therefore an 80% chance of meeting the conservation limit. The scientific advice in this instance is to maintain this level of catch. This is because we must acknowledge that these districts catch fish from other districts that may not be meeting their conservation limits. Instead of increasing the average catch while waiting for other districts to improve, we believe that it should be maintained.
The final example is where the conservation limit is not met at all. In the Galway district, the Corrib river is the most important, while the Kilcolgan river is also quite important. There are smaller yet still important contributions from the other fisheries. In this case, both the returns and the spawners have plummeted and have been very low since 1985. The spawners are far below the conservation limit in this instance. At the 75% risk, there is no catch option which will provide a 75% chance that the conservation limit will be met. In fact at the average catch of 4,580 fish, there is a zero chance of meeting the conservation limit. Even if the fishery was stopped entirely, the chance of meeting the conservation limit is below 50%. It is up to the managers to decide what level of catch is required, but it is also up to them to declare the level of risk that will occur when the level of catch is decided. That is the significant change in the advice process.
We provide a catch advice table that states that there is no surplus fish in eight of the districts, while the catch has to be reduced in other districts. That is essentially how the catch advice works.