The Commission for Energy Regulation is pleased to attend this meeting of the joint committee. I understand the committee's desire, as expressed by the Chairman, to talk about the price of electricity, on foot of a newspaper report last week that indicated that the price of electricity is about to increase by 36%. I assure the committee that the report was somewhat misleading. My officials and I will give an overview of how electricity prices are determined and indicate what is in store for us in this regard.
The Commission for Energy Regulation approves the end-user prices for electricity for the ESB, which is the public electricity supplier. The commission publishes a draft decision on prices in September of each year. Final user prices are decided following a public consultation period, which continues throughout September. The prices determined apply for the following calendar year. This process is important for a number of reasons, not least because it sets the market price against which the independent suppliers must compete.
In setting the prices, the commission must balance a range of objectives, some of which conflict with each other. Security of supply in the long and short terms is a crucial issue for the economy that affects end-user prices. In the interests of national competitiveness we should try to set low input prices. If prices are too low, however, they can damage the reliability of the electricity system, which in turn would damage the reputation of the country as a place in which business can be done. A further consideration is the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. If we do so by charging for carbon dioxide, however, we will increase the price of electricity at a time when industry is seeking lower prices.
The Commission for Energy Regulation needs to balance the long and short-term interests of the economy and electricity consumers. The price of electricity has four components — generation, transmission, distribution and supply. On average, generation forms approximately 55% of the final price, transmission accounts for approximately 10%, distribution accounts for approximately 30% and supply accounts for approximately 5%. This combination varies somewhat depending on the 11 different customer categories.
Electricity in Ireland is generated using a variety of fuels, such as gas, coal, oil, peat, hydropower and wind power. Minor contributions are made by some other renewable sources. In 2004, gas was the most predominant of all the fuels — it was used to generate 44% of Irish electricity — followed by coal, which was used to produce 26% of electricity. There have been significant reductions in the use of oil, to 12.5%, and peat, to 5% for the production of electricity. Hydropower, which was once the most important source of electricity, is now used to produce just 2.5% of electricity. Renewable sources are used to produce 3.5% of our electricity. We imported approximately 5.5% of our power from Northern Ireland and Scotland in 2004.
Gas, coal and oil are purchased on the international market, in dollars and sterling, at prices entirely outside our control. Gas is bought and sold in sterling at the national balancing point in Britain. One can buy gas at that point for delivery on the same day, or in three or four years time. I have distributed material to the joint committee to demonstrate how the price of gas has increased over the past year. Members can see graphs that indicate the price curves for the first quarter and winter of 2006. The graphs indicate that the price of gas in March 2004 was approximately 30p per therm. If one bought gas in March 2004 for delivery in the first quarter of 2006, one would have paid 30p. If one were to buy gas now for delivery in the first quarter of 2006, one would have to pay well over 70p. The graphs also give details of the price of gas for delivery in the winter of 2006. The graphs indicate that the price of gas has increased significantly. The price is so high because the UK, which is our main source of gas — more than 80% of our gas comes from there — is now a net gas importer, with gas coming into the UK via the interconnector to Europe. Continental and world gas prices are linked to oil prices, which have increased significantly and with which I will deal later. There is a higher demand for gas world-wide, particularly since gas has become the fuel of choice for electricity generation. A number of new power stations in Europe are now being built which use gas.
There are infrastructural deficits in the UK, even though according to a recent report from Britain's national grid Transco Company, it should have sufficient gas for a normal winter but, if there is a severe winter, there could be difficulties with supplies. By the end of 2007, there should be a second continental interconnector in place. A new Norwegian gas field is under development and it should be on-stream, and the Liquified Natural Gas, known as the LNG terminal, should also be available. There are plans for two of these terminals in Pembrokeshire. Some of these infrastructural deficits will disappear, but we are not sure how the price will develop as a result.
Coal prices have levelled off recently, as members will see from graph 3, but they are still at twice the level they were in 2002. This is without the impact of carbon, to which I will refer later. This is just the wholesale international price of coal.
We all know that oil forms a useful headline figure, because other fuel prices tend to follow it. This time last year, we were speculating what would happen if crude oil prices went to $50 a barrel. Now it is well over $60 and the dollar has recently strengthened against the euro. The ESB uses low sulphur heavy fuel oil, not crude oil. This is now priced at $270 a tonne, compared to $160 in 2004. Graphs 4 and 5 show the trends in the international price of oil in dollars. Crude oil is sold in barrels and fuel oil is sold in tonnes.
As well as the increasing price of fuels, we must deal with carbon dioxide. As members will be aware, under EU agreements and the Kyoto agreement, there have been various allocations by the Environmental Protection Agency to industry as to their carbon allowances. The power sector must purchase approximately a quarter of the CO2 it emits. Carbon was trading at €10 a tonne late last year and early this year, and it has more than doubled to more than €20 euro a tonne as indicated in graph 6. Of all the fuel mentioned, coal is the largest emitter of carbon.
Under the public sector obligations order made by the Minister, output from peat generating stations is charged to ESB public electricity supply at the best new entrant price. This is a special price members will have read about in the newspapers, as are renewables. If the ESB buys peat, it is deemed to be a best new entrant price, which is lower than the actual price of peat and the actual price of renewables.
The newspaper article to which I referred mentioned the CER published estimate of the best new entrant price for 2006. This figure is calculated every year and it is the estimated price at which the most efficient new entrant generator in the best location in the country could produce electricity. It is used to calculate the top-up price in the wholesale market, that is the price at which the ESB power generation sells power to the market. It is also used to fix the baseline for the calculation of the public service obligations charges.
The BNE estimate for 2006 has increased by 36% over 2005. The main input into this is the increase in wholesale gas costs, which was 58%. Other costs, including capital costs, have remained roughly static or declined. This best new entrant price has nothing to do directly with the ESB's final price of electricity to ordinary consumers. However, it is more or less the price a new power station would require to give a reasonable rate of return to investors.
The BNE increase in the price we have determined is due solely to the increase in the wholesale cost of gas. The ESB has a portfolio of fuels, as I mentioned earlier, and these have not all increased by the same amount. Also, generation accounts for approximately 55% of the end user price, and the other 45%, which is made up of network and supply costs, has certainly not increased by 36%. I am satisfied that end user electricity prices will not increase anywhere near 36% in 2006.
On transmission and distribution, every five years the CER undertakes a fundamental review of the ESB's network business. We review all its operating costs and proposed capital investment programme. We are currently carrying out this five-year review and expect to have it finished over the next few weeks. This element comprises approximately 40% of the end user tariff and is the part of the electricity supply chain that remains a natural monopoly. Therefore, it is particularly important that we review these costs carefully and ensure that only efficient and necessary costs are being incurred. At the same time, it is essential that Ireland has a first world electricity infrastructure to support our economy.
There has been a major expansion in capital expenditure networks over the past five years. This has been one of the factors in the price adjustments. At the same time, network operations have improved significantly their efficiency.
The Public Electricity Supply, PES, business buys its power from ESB Power Generation, Edenderry Power Limited, which is a peat station and under the various alternative energy requirement schemes for the renewable sources. From next year, it will also buy its power from Tynagh Energy Limited and Aughinish Alumina. Along with other suppliers to electricity consumers, PES must pay the cost of using the transmission and distributing systems. Together with their own supply costs, which are small enough, these are the four factors that make up the total costs, namely, generation costs, transmission, distribution and its own supply costs.
In conclusion, we are at present assessing these costs in total for PES and how they should be recovered from the various customer categories. This is a process we go through every year. We expect to be in a position to publish our draft decision on end user tariffs in early September. As this is some time away, it is too early to say what the price of electricity will be in 2006. However, while the CER will ensure that only efficient and appropriate costs are passed to consumers, it appears inevitable that there will be increases arising from the significant increases in world fuel prices, and any downward pressure on other costs will not be sufficient to offset this.