I apologise for my voice which has been affected by the climate. I thank the committee for inviting our group to appear before it to give it some idea of what is now happening in the Balkans, after what happened on 5 October.
The Balkans has entered the process of democratisation, facing new problems and needs the support of the west, especially the EU in order to finalise the regional crisis and to enable it to catch up with other countries that have joined the European Union. In this regard, Serbia presents a major problem to the region because of its pending problems with Kosovo, Montenegro and co-operation with the tribunal. It will take an international effort and presence to resolve the issues. Other problems arise from the transition to a market economy from the post communist era, the consequences of war and problems associated with nationalities and minorities. The EU, Council of Europe and NATO have provided a framework which should help in the process towards European integration. I think it is very important for Serbia to create a new coalition in civil society to help it meet its obligation in the transition to the market economy and in dealing with the status of Kosovo and Montenegro. At this time Kosovo presents a key challenge to the stability of the Balkans. The mantra of standards before status, which has been repeated for four years, is not the framework which can guarantee a stable and peaceful transition. In my view, the legitimate approach is to give guarantees to minorities, which means conditional independence, as has been already mentioned by the Independent Commission for Kosovo. Both sides must reach a consensus on independence for Kosovo and this must be worked through with the help of the international community or the EU.
Unfortunately Belgrade's policy to date has been based more or less on partition. Serbia has not been a helpful partner over the past five years. Its policy towards Kosovo has been mostly to undermine international efforts, to demonise Albanians and to keep Serbs from Kosovo out of institutions. In fact, they built up a parallel society in northern Kosovo with partition in mind.
The big problem of Kosovo is underdevelopment and the general economic stalemate which has not been dealt with over the past four years. This has occurred because of the problems which arise out of the slow process of privatisation and a lack of will in the international community to deal with these key issues.
The outbreak of inter-communal hostilities in March last was followed by a decision of the international community to resolve the Kosovo status in 2005 or 2006. This gives us a new possibility to create an agenda for Kosovo and this should be carefully designed. Unfortunately the Serbian side is still portraying Kosovars as a potential terrorist movement throughout the region. I am afraid that at present Belgrade's policy is focused on creating new instabilities which will be helped probably by some ethnic groups in Kosovo.
Serbia is also facing problems which became clear after the assassination of Prime Minister Djindic, who was a political moderniser of the country and who managed to focus on reform and transition. This, and especially his willingness to co-operate with the Hague, was the reason for his removal. As the committee will be aware, he handed over about 15 people, primarily Milosevic, who otherwise would still be in command of political life in Serbia. His going to the Hague has had an enormous impact on the political dynamics in Serbia. After his removal and the elections of December last, it became quite clear that Serbia's new political landscape created continuity with the time of Milosevic and that his forces have come back and are now dictating dynamics in the society. This is also a revival of ultra-nationalism, which is still present in all Serbian institutions. This reflects especially on the issue of minorities within Serbia which, apart from Kosovo and Montenegro, is also an unresolved issue.
The other unresolved issue is the constitution of Serbia, which means that there is no consensus on what kind of state Serbia should be. That means that the prevailing political culture of a centralised and unitary state is still dominant and that the ethnic minority issue will face problems. Serbia passed a minority law a few years ago but unfortunately there is a lack of political will, of social atmosphere and a lack of finance to proceed with this law. Ethnic incidents which we had been facing in Serbia also reflect an unwillingness to deal with the minority issue and a lack of a pro-active stance on the minority issue.
One of the biggest problems of the society is the deep denial of its primary responsibility for war crimes over the past decade. In this respect it is also important to note that this government, with Prime Minister Vojslav Kostunica, is not co-operating with the Hague. They are refusing to do that. Unfortunately there is a complete stalemate in this respect and the promotion of individuals such as Mladic, Karadzic and Seselj is still going on. For instance, at an international book fair a Karadzic book stole the show. It was one of the main events in society. So was the promotion of the book of Dobrica Cosic, one of the most influential figures from the academic sphere, on the current political dynamics of the society.
Organised crime, which has played an enormously important role during the decade, is still playing an important role in the society. Power from the political sphere has moved to the economic sphere, which is mostly conducted by Milosevic's cronies or tycoons who rose from this era. In short, this is a major problem. As I mentioned, there needs to be a new coalition for this pro-European agenda which, at present, can be created only with the Civic Society, some opposition parties which are pro-European and also the Democratic Party, which is one of the biggest parties in the country and the only party with a pro-European orientation. Unfortunately the Serbian President, Boris Tadic, is not taking up the agenda of Djindic. He is closer to Prime Minister Kostunica. Nevertheless, much can be done in this sphere.
The army still has a important impact on society. It has never been under the control of the civic society. Recent developments, including the murder of two young soldiers, have opened up the issue of the army. At present, it is not quite clear whether it will be possible to continue in the direction of putting the army under civic control. However, its popular support has fallen by 30% over the past 40 days, as a result of this murder but also many other incidents which are coming into the open. Many parents are coming with their stories about how their boys have been treated in the army. However, the intelligence service is also having an important impact on the society. At present the army and its intelligence services may not be able to create a wider conflict in the region but they can still destabilise the society itself and also play an important role in possible Kosovo dynamics over the next few months.
