Thank you very much indeed, for your kind words. I do apologise to the committee for not having been available before this, in particular to discuss this matter of regional policy, but I was, as you may be aware, touring Europe for two weeks visiting a number of different countries to discuss the approach by the Commission to this problem, to explain the Irish position and to seek support for our attitude in respect of this part of the Commission's approach which we found unsatisfactory. Subsequently I was in New York for two weeks at the United Nations. Therefore, there was no date on which I was able to meet the committee until now. I am glad we could meet at this stage before the Council of Ministers will have considered this whole question of regional policy so that we may have an opportunity of exchanging views at this stage rather than after the whole process has begun.
What I would like to do is to speak briefly about the main defects in the Commission's approach as we see them, viewed from an Irish point of view, but also in some respects more broadly from the European point of view, given that this regional policy has something important to contribute to the development of the Community, to stability and, I may add, the ability to expand dynamically and sustain the growth rate and not be held back by difficulties existing in particular parts of the Community where economic development has not been as rapid to date.
The regional policy, as we see it, is something which is designed to transfer resources within the Community to parts of the Community whose problems are such that they are beyond the ability of the individual member states to cope with them single handed. The supplementary policy is designed primarily to supplement, in the first instance, the work of governments, and that is not to say we would not favour the development of this process of supplementation into a more general European-type policy on a European scale. But realistically we must start, in the first instance, from the base that there are states which have regional policies some of which has proved effective, some of which has not proved adequate, possibly—certainly in some cases—because the state concerned did not have sufficient resources in its better—off areas to transfer to the weaker areas. It is there that the Community regional policy comes in to supplement.
The need for a regional policy is, of course, a little sharpened by the proposal for economic and monetary union. This is not the only reason why it is necessary. We recognise that economic and monetary union gives a new dimension to regional policy and has increased the need for it. Of course, the regional policy concept is in the Preamble to the Treaty itself drawn up at the time and the idea of regional policy had found expression long before EMU had been thought of. The reference in the Preamble refers to the anxiety of those concerned to ensure the strengthening of their economies and their harmonious development by reducing the differences existing in the various regions and the backward and less favoured regions.
Therefore, we relied primarily on the Treaty itself and its Preamble as the basis for regional policy, noting that the need for this policy has been greatly intensified by the proposal, 15 years after the Treaty was signed, to move towards economic and monetary union. The economic and monetary union, although it sets a deadline of 1980, gives some indication of the scale regional policy will need to be on in order to achieve sufficient impact in the less favoured regions to make it possible for the countries concerned to accept the discipline of economic and monetary union and to accept the merging of economic policies which that implies.
Secondly, but deriving from that of course, is the question of the scale of the policy and the fund in question. If there were not a deadline one could argue about the rate at which one should be making progress towards ironing out these disparities or alleviating them to make them tolerable, but given the EMU deadline there is clearly urgency about achieving results quickly which demands resources on a very large scale, and when we come to consider the adequacy of the resources proposed by the Commission we have to have regard to this deadline.
On the sufficiency of the scale, there are a couple of things I would like to say. The fund is divided over a three-year period. There is no explicit commitment to go beyond that point but a clear implication—we would hope to make it even clearer in the process of the negotiations—that it will continue thereafter and presumably continue to expand. However, what is proposed at the moment is a fund building up over three years to a figure of 1,000 million units of account, and in the third year amounting to £450 million. That may sound a good deal of money but, of course, it has to be seen in the context of the actual scale of the regions in question. As we now understand it, the region which the Commission proposes to define as being eligible to reap the benefit from this policy will have a population which would be something approaching one-third that of the Community as a whole. And as many of these areas are argricultural and of low density, the actual area of the Community involved might represent an even higher proportion, over one-third of the area. Therefore, we are talking of a fund which has to be spread over something like one-third of the Community.
I shall ignore the figures for the first couple of years because I regard them as transitional. We all accept you cannot, overnight, create a fund of adequate level; there must be a building-up process. I would have thought, therefore, the figure for the third year would be the relevant figure. Of course, this figure of £450 million in the third year is one which represents the total amount to be fed into this fund. If, however, as seems likely, bearing in mind the high proportion of the Community which is to be covered by it and the fact that most if not all countries will have regions which will, under one or other heading qualify, it is clear that the net transfer between countries will be very much smaller, it does not seem possible, on any likely sharing out of the fund by any criteria, either those now proposed or any that anyone else is likely to propose, that this £450 million gross sum paid in could lead to inter-country transfers exceeding, perhaps, £150 million.
As the purpose of regional policy is to help those countries which have not sufficient resources to help themselves to progress at the rate necessary and required by the terms of the Treaty and by the proposals of the EMU, one must really look at these inter-country transfers as the relevant figures, and the figure of £150 million inter-country transfers is extraordinarily small in relation to the needs. Indeed, it could be argued that this small country alone would need or could absorb a figure which would be more than half of that, meaning that, if we got it which on present figures does not seem likely, little more than half would go to the entire rest of the community, to the other 72 million or 77 million people. This suggests to us that the scale of the fund as proposed is inadequate, even for the third year, quite apart from the inevitable inadequacy of the fund in the building up period in the first couple of years.
In this context we are also concerned with the fact that there is nothing in the proposals as put forward that shows any recognition of the fact that Ireland and Italy have protocols to the respective treaties, the Rome Treaty and the Enlargement Treaty, which guarantee a measure of priority for these countries in respect of this very question of development of areas which are not as well off as other parts of the Community. One would have expected that these protocols would have found some concrete reflection in the proposals. There is not only no reference to them but nothing in the proposals, as I see them, which could be represented as intended to reflect the effects of the protocols. This we regard as of some importance.
The Commission in its proposals of last May did recognise that the problems that would have to be met within the regions of the Community which are to be covered by the fund vary considerably in intensity. We are not talking of a Community divided in two parts, one third of the Community being at a certain lower level and the rest being at a higher level. Of course, where a line has to be drawn between the areas to benefit and those not to benefit there is a continuous gradation of levels of GDP per head, or on levels of labour surplus. These are regarded as the two main criteria which should be applied.
The Commission itself recognises this and in its May document it referred to the fact that there must be standards to ensure that the means available to the fund are used in a manner quite independent of any criterion of Juste Retour and it reflects the size and urgency of the regional problem facing the Community. As we understand it, and recent statements from the representatives of the Commission reflect this: there is an acceptance by the Commission that there are these variations in intensity of the problems and that these will have to be taken into account some way. But the actual proposals of the Commission and the draft regulations in no way reflect this. There is no point at which one can detect any recognition of the varying intensity of the problems within the areas of the Community defined as needing regional policy.
Such indications as there are would appear to suggest the contrary. There is, for example, this question of the percentage of the cost of projects to be financed by the Community. Proposals are made for 15 per cent in respect of industrial projects and 30 per cent in respect of infrastructural projects. There is no suggestion that these would vary according to the intensity of the problems nor indeed in relation to the ability of the country concerned to provide the funds. A flat 15 per cent and a flat 30 per cent are proposed.
Moreover, about the time when the Commission proposals were published there were references in the press to figures represented as possible quotas for the distribution of the fund. The figures in question, when one examines them, are found to reflect simply the proportion of the total amount that each country will have. What was proposed in respect of the different regions was on the basis of population. The very use of the figures, not adopted by the Commission, but dealt with in a working paper, implied that there was an equality of intensity throughout the Community on the population criterion; it was a question of the population in the disadvantaged regions in each member state as a proportion of the total Community population in disadvantaged regions. It does not seem to be consistent with the idea of taking account of the varying intensity of the problems.
This, from my point of view, is of vital importance. We cannot accept that the problems of this country are to be equated with those of relatively highly developed regions of other countries which may face problems of industrial training but which may, in fact, as GDP per head be twice as great as this country. The disparity in some cases could even be greater than three to one. We cannot accept that that kind of variation should be ignored and that we should be put on a par with relatively prosperous areas of very rich member states. We therefore place a lot of importance on this question of the relative intensity of the problem and seeing this translated into some concrete form when the regulations emerge from the present discussions.
In connection with the question of countries providing from their own resources, there is the further point which is closely related to it, the relative capacity of countries to provide from their own resources for the regional policy which is, after all, what the whole policy should be about. Again there is nothing in the proposals put forward in the regulations which seems to reflect this particular consideration, fundamental though it seems to us to be. In this connection it is important to note that the whole of Ireland is seen, naturally enough, as a region for this purpose because even the wealthiest part of this country is in fact, in terms of GDP per head, well down the list and well below the level of any other part of the Community with the exception of Southern Italy. There is acceptance I think that the whole of Ireland should be treated as one region.
The logical corollary of that is that we do not have, and this has now been accepted, any better off areas to draw from, whereas all other member states have, by definition, some area which is well enough off not to need regional aid and from which they can effect some internal transfers. Perhaps it would not be sufficient but they would be in a position to effect some internal transfers. We have no such area. The Irish position in this respect, is unique and we expect this to be recognised in some form. No reflection of the ability to pay emerges at all and, indeed, the use of the 15 and 30 per cent suggests that each country will get according to its own ability to pay.
The better off country which can afford to give big incentives to industrial development would get more because of a fixed relationship between what it pays out and the amount the Community will provide. There is, if anything, an inverse relationship that the rich will get more and the poor less, the opposite to what we had understood to be the fundamental principle of the regional policy.
In addition to this we are not happy with the criteria which have been proposed by the Commission. Firstly, one of the criteria seems to me, and to the Government, to be invariably unsound as a criterion from a statistical point of view, I refer to unemployment. If unemployment figures, internationally, are the product of an administrative process, that process varies enormously from country to country both in level of the employment benefit paid and the traditions in which it is paid vary enormously. Therefore, any comparison between these figures internationally which tends to suggest that 2 per cent unemployed in one country is the same as 2 per cent unemployed in another, is basically nonsensical.
There are parts of the Community, where, if the benefits paid were far better both in amount and in the terms and conditions of payment than the richer parts of the Community, the numbers of unemployed would multiply in response to this incentive. There is, in fact, great underemployment in some areas and underemployment which does not emerge as unemployment because there is not the incentive for it to do so under the existing administrative process. These figures for employment, in our case derived from the live register of unemployed, and similar figures elsewhere which are related to the payment of unemployment assistance or benefit are inherently incomparable in any scheme which, assuming they are comparable, is one which is statistically unsound to start with. We are unhappy with that criterion.
We in Ireland are particularly unhappy with it because in our experience in a country with a vast labour surplus in the past, and still a substantial labour surplus, unemployment can be simply the residue of those who do not go. In Ireland this is the case. My own calculations show that over the 50 years of the existence of the State, which is roughly the life of a man, roughly 47 per cent of those who passed the age of 15 since 1922 and are still alive and have left the educational system and are still actually in Ireland. Almost half left the country. The unemployment element is about 15 per cent. In fact, something like 85 per cent of our labour surplus emigrate. If you use unemployment as a criterion it is not a sound one. The ratio between well-off countries and less well-off countries would be six to one. We reject the use of unemployment as a criterion. We may have to accept it as an element, but on its own it is deeply mistaken. It is one of the key criteria suggested by the Commission, but we do not accept it as such. When the main proposals were put forward at the Council I made it clear that we had reason for not accepting the criteria and I do not expect them to be employed in the Commission's proposals.
Another criterion which is under discussion is that of GDP per head. It has been suggested that any area whose GNP per head is above the average should be excluded. We regard this as unduly generous. Half the Community have GDP above the average. We feel that to use that criterion would be to misconceive the problem. The Commission itself mention one-third of the Community to be considered. That is too big. To employ a definition which brings in half the Community would be absurd. Perhaps 15 per cent would be below the average and would be more realistic. Areas only slightly above the average should not be brought in.
We find something else about the criteria used distressing. We may not have adequate information on this point. Further clarification may help to reassure us. There are indications, as expressed in the media, that in the three different sets of circumstances there is a difference in the stringency of the methods used to arrive at the criteria. In the case of agriculture the criterion proposed seems reasonable enough to us, but when you come to imbalances resulting from industrial change the criterion suggested there is 2 per cent unemployment. We object to unemployment as a criterion to start with. Two per cent is a remarkably low figure. We would not regard 2 per cent unemployment as unemployment at all. We know there must be some people who left through emigration. If we got to the stage where we had minimal emigration with only a few hundred people going each year because they prefer the cultural atmosphere abroad and 2 per cent unemployment, our economic problems would be solved.
When we come to the criteria about structural underemployment in the regional policy, it is suggested that the criteria is different again. There must be 3 ½ per cent unemployed. As regards emigration, it is suggested that a rate of at least 10 per cent of the population will apply. This must be a mistake but if it is not the definition about emigration seems nonsensical. I do not think that emigration at the rate of 10 per cent would occur unless there was a famine or a massacre.
The final criticism I would make of the proposals is that they do not correlate. They do not reflect in any way the Commission's own thinking as set out in the May document. That document suggested that there should be flexibility in the use of resources, particularly concerning the intractible regional areas or trans-border schemes involving more than one area. We were heartened by that reference. It seemed to show an appreciation of the particular problems of this country, North and South, and also the problems of southern Italy. That proposal has disappeared from the July document. There is no reflection of it in the draft regulations before us. We do not understand why it has been dropped. We regard it as a retrogressive step which takes away much of the value of the proposed regional policy as put forward in the original document.
That is a brief amalgam of the difficulties we see. In the nature of things, I am giving you the bad side. There are good features of the document on which we hope to build. There is much which gives us concern. This will come before the Council next Tuesday. Members of the Council representing different countries will give their reactions to the proposals and will try to give guidance to the working party studying them. They will try to seek solutions to the problems. The discussion next Tuesday will be very important. It will be only the beginning of a process. Much work must be done at official level before the Council will be faced with political decisions to be taken. The present plan is that there will be a discussion in November and again in December and the final date for agreement will be reached either before or after Christmas. Much work lies ahead.
I would be happy now to answer any questions asked.