Joint Committee on Transport and Communications debate -
Wednesday, 18 Sep 2024

Aviation Trends, Air Traffic Control and Drone Activity: Discussion

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

The purpose of today’s meeting is to discuss aviation trends, air traffic control and drone activity with Eurocontrol. On behalf of the committee, I am pleased to welcome Mr. Philip Hughes, who is head of European aviation plans, co-operation and stakeholder support at Eurocontrol.

I will read a brief note on privilege. Witnesses are reminded of the long-standing parliamentary practice that they should not criticise or make charges against any person or entity by name or in such a way as to make him, her or it identifiable or otherwise engage in speech that might be regarded as damaging to the good name of the person or entity.

It is imperative that witnesses comply with any such direction. Members are reminded of the long-standing parliamentary practice to the effect that they should not comment on, criticise or make charges against a person outside the Houses or an official either by name or in such a way as to make him or her identifiable.

I remind members of the constitutional requirement that they must be physically present within the confines of the Leinster House complex in order to participate in public meetings. I will not be able to permit a member to participate where he or she is not adhering to this constitutional requirement. Therefore, any member who attempts to participate from outside the precincts will be asked to leave the meeting. In this regard, I ask any members partaking via Microsoft Teams to confirm that they are on the grounds of the Leinster House campus prior to making their contributions.

I invite Mr. Hughes to make his opening statement or we can take the statement as read and he can go through his slides.

Mr. Philip Hughes

I am very happy to go to my slides. I am delighted to be here. It is great to come to Ireland when the weather is actually good.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Maybe Mr. Hughes brought it the whole way from Brussels.

Mr. Philip Hughes

No, it certainly did not come from Brussels. I have to say that but, as I have said, it is great to see the good weather. I thank the committee for the opportunity to discuss issues such as how Eurocontrol can help the member states, particularly Ireland, what the issues are at European level and development.

Going to my first slide, members will see that I have tried to highlight the complexity of the European air traffic management system. It is approximately 11.5 million km. There are 37 air traffic service providers and 17,800 air traffic controllers with approximately 55,000 staff. Some 15.3 million hours are controlled and there are 68 en route facilities, 28 terminal facilities on approach and 525 airports. The reason I highlight this is to indicate the complexity of the co-ordination under the system. It is a very fragmented system, as the members will have seen. Some will be familiar with the push for legislation on a single European sky, which the Commission has been pushing very strongly. The other complexity in this is the war in Ukraine, which has severely affected the amount of capacity with the system and which has shifted the traffic flows. That is just by way of background.

I will move to the next slide. Eurocontrol has a number of functions. First, we do the air traffic management for all of Europe. By that I mean that we do the balancing arrangements between capacity and demand. We do not actually provide air traffic control except at our centre in Maastricht. We are also the platform for civil-military co-operation, which is a much more important issue now with the war in Ukraine and the arrival of fifth-generation aircraft like F-35s. The demand for military airspace is increasing, which makes it more complex. We have an innovation hub where we work on research and development solutions for air traffic management, ATM. We are also the leading technical arm for data from all of the various sources including network management, original equipment manufacturers, OEMs, airports and airspace users. We also have a role in sustainability. That is big service we provide to the Commission, member states and the European institutions. I have already mentioned the Maastricht centre, which covers the upper airspace over the Benelux countries and part of Germany. We have a training centre in Luxembourg and we also do all of the billing for all of the airlines in Europe. Broadly speaking, that is what we do.

The next slide gives an idea of the number of member states. The ones in dark blue are European Union states and those in light blue are member states that are not in the EU. These include the UK, Norway, Turkey, many of the Balkan states, Ukraine and Moldova. We currently have 41 states, and Iceland will be joining as a member on 1 January.

The next slide gives an idea of our main locations. We were happy to welcome some of the committee members to our headquarters in Brussels last year. There they saw our network management operation and some of our research facilities. We have an innovation centre based in Paris, near Brétigny. Then we have the Luxembourg training centre and the Maastricht air traffic control centre. Those are our four main locations. We have in the region of 1,900 staff and a budget of approximately €750 million. That gives the committee a very quick overview of Eurocontrol.

The key thing for our added value is, first, our neutrality. In an industry where many different players are working together, we try to bring the aviation community together to work together. It is a system which is dependent on all of them doing that. We cover multiple domains and the lifecycle of the evolution of technology, so we have a good, in-depth understanding of the ATM environment. We are the ones who provide most of the technical data for the Commission, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, EASA, and member states about how things are performing. As stated, the civil-military aspect is important. On expertise and innovation, we need new solutions to overcome some of the problems and challenges to the system that I will talk about later.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I thank Mr. Hughes. He provided an opening statement and a number of briefing documents. There are more slides and the 96-page Single European Sky ATM Research, SESAR, document. I am not sure every member has fully read the latter yet, especially as we only received it in the past day or two. I am sure it makes for good background reading.

I have a few questions. We hear phrases like "Ireland is full". In his opening statement, which we will have included in the record, Mr. Hughes refers to a situation where the sky above Europe is saturated or at pretty much full capacity. We all know about our discussions here on the passenger cap at Dublin Airport and how much the latter - let alone our other airports - wants to grow. I am sure the situation across Europe is similar. If the sky is relatively saturated, what is the solution?

Mr. Philip Hughes

The Leas-Chathaoirleach is quite correct. We indicated that the European network is saturated. Some areas are more challenged than others. Ireland is in a very good position in that it is probably best in class with regard to efficiencies and delays. There are very modern systems in place. As you go farther east, that situation is not replicated and you will start to see other issues. If the Leas-Chathaoirleach likes, I can move to the next slide, because I have some analysis showing this.

I thought I would talk about the summer just gone, because it is topical and controversial. Members will have seen all the indications from the airlines about their unhappiness regarding how things have developed and calling on the Commission and Eurocontrol to provide more capacity. I thought I might give an indication of what the actual trend is. On the slide displayed, the grey area shows the delays for 2023. There were two days involving more than 200,000 minutes of delay.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Is that all the delays added up?

Mr. Philip Hughes

Precisely.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Is there an average time?

Mr. Philip Hughes

I am coming to that. The Leas-Chathaoirleach is getting ahead of me. For the summer of 2024, there were 21 days with about 200,000 minutes of delay. In July, there were three days where the delays went to more than 350,000 minutes. Members can see that it has been a challenging summer. Anybody who has spent time in airports in Europe can identify with that.

Moving to the next slide, the main figure relates to averages. From June to August, there was an increase of about 4.8% on 2023. That is about 2.5% on 2019, which is a figure that the airlines refer to. Looking at the map, the problem is that the way in which the traffic is presenting is very different, partly because of the war and partly because of the ban. The darker area in red is where the congestion has started to arise. States like Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Georgia, Hungary, Serbia and Montenegro are all up by 15% on 2019. Italy and Turkey are up by about 10%. The profile of the traffic is changing. June to August en route delays were 4.6 minutes on average, which is up 52% on 2023 and 59% on 2019.

The arrival punctuality has dropped drastically to 65%. It was 66% last year, but in 2019 it was 73%. Typically, therefore, we would be looking at a maximum number of about 36,000 flights daily, which really indicates this aspect is part of the context.

The other complication starting to arise is the impact of climate change. We are now starting to see a much bigger impact from weather. Especially in Austria, Croatia and all around that area, thunderstorm activity is also starting to impact the capacity of the sector. This is where we are really starting to see a mixture of things beginning to affect the network in a strong way. This gives the committee a flavour of what is happening.

The other thing we see in the Balkans is that the area is getting much more traffic, especially when overflights are going to the Far East. They are avoiding Ukraine by coming down through the Balkans, into Turkey and out towards the Far East. These flights are another piece of the profile because they cannot go through Russia any more and this has impacted the situation. To be fair, the airlines are hurting because of it. It is directly impacting their operations and passengers are increasingly frustrated as a result.

The information on the next slide will address the question asked about the average. I have taken the numbers from the late 1990s up to today. The members can see that previously the worst year we had was 1999, and the average delay then was 5.9 minutes. It will also be seen that the dark blue area on the image represents air traffic control capacity, while the tiny little green bit denotes weather. Moving forward to 2024, we can see the average delay is now 4.6 minutes, which is the worst we have had for several years. If we look at the split between the two instances, however, we can see that weather has had a much bigger impact in this regard too. In 1999, we took some radical steps with the creation of the central flow management unit and the reduction of vertical separation to try to increase capacity. In that year, there were 20,000 flights daily. We do, therefore, have more efficiency in the system now, but it is not enough. Later, I will talk about what we need to do to try to remedy this problem.

Turning to the next slide, this shows the evolution in the context of 2023. There has been much discussion in the press about this aspect. If we look at the 2023 information, the red bit in March and April of the previous year represents French air traffic control strikes. What has happened since then is indicated by the green piece and this represents weather having started to impact in 2023. By looking at the chart depicting the situation in June, July and August, we can see how much the impact has increased on an average basis. It does not paint the whole picture, but what we are starting to see is this interplay between weather and ATC capacity.

Deputy Alan Farrell

It is a graphic display of the long-term and what is on the horizon.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Exactly. That is true.

Deputy Alan Farrell

Not just here.

Mr. Philip Hughes

We are trying to reflect the problem-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

We did not really see it here. People travelling saw it at the other end.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Looking at the previous diagram where we had a heat map, we can see that Ireland was coloured in white. If I had been sitting in Dublin Airport, though, waiting to go to Greece, that is where I would have experienced the delay.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

That is a problem.

Mr. Philip Hughes

This is where the challenge is really starting to emerge. The European meteorological service reported a 22% increase in forecasts of bad weather compared with the previous year. We also have the situation where the jet stream is now moving northwards. When aircraft are coming into the North Atlantic, we can see that piece is being disrupted. We are also seeing much more thunderstorm activity arising from this situation. The members will have seen the floods in Austria and Czechia recently. Increasingly, that is where we are trying to focus in terms of how we can help the network to deal with climate change. This is a part of the challenge for us.

The other aspect we should probably mention is that even though there were not air traffic-controlled flights, there was a work-to-rule situation in Italy that made the situation even more complex. Generally, if we have problems to the north, in Hungary or Austria, for example, we would move the aircraft further south.

That option was not available, but that is reflected in the air traffic control capacity piece.

We will go to the next slide. If members followed this in the press, they will have seen that everybody is blaming everybody else. The airlines are blaming the network manager in the ANSPs. Other people are blaming the airports or whoever else. What we have tried to do is break down the problem. I will start with green. In terms of delivery of green capacity, this is a big one. A lot of effort has gone into providing more capacity, in particular for the first rotation. If we get them off earlier during the day, they do not pick up as many delays. Some ANSPs are providing more than they promised and they have this rolling network operations plan, but some of them are not. Being honest about it, there is an element of truth in that. Ryanair is particularly angry about this, saying it has no free years and there is not enough capacity. For some countries that is true. For others, we can see where capacity plans have been achieved over the past 15 years. Some others, however, have been affected by exceptional traffic increases - as I said earlier, driven by the war in Ukraine - in terms of where the traffic is. We should note the impact of Covid and the very strong pressure. To be frank, there was also a lag in terms of recruiting air traffic controllers because a lot of them stepped down their programme during Covid. It takes three years before you get a rated air traffic controller back into the system, so there is a time lag in terms of that.

On weather, we have seen some evidence of better co-operation this year but there is a lot more to do with current procedures being insufficient and locally focused. We are planning more for 2025. As we saw earlier, more capacity will make the system more resilient. We are talking to the Americans because they have a lot of experience. Members will be aware of that if they have ever been on the east coast during the summer, as they get thunderstorm activity all the time. We are trying to look at how we can do some pre-tactical planning in terms of improving that.

The third piece is one we discussed before. It is on realistic scheduling, including turnaround times. Some of the scheduling is, frankly, not realistic. Therefore, we tend to have buffers in the system in terms of capacity. I can understand why they want to do it, to protect it, but on the other hand, that is something on which we need to work more closely with the airlines to try to squeeze as much capacity as we possibly can. I have spoken already about the first rotation.

Last but not least is disciplined flight plan execution. Basically, this means that airlines should fly to their flight plan and not take short cuts. I will give an example. If they deviate either horizontally or vertically, that capacity is not used. We have slots in the system. It is like making an appointment to go to the doctor and then not turning up. You basically build your profile based on the number of slots and then, if they do not turn up, that is lost capacity. What is worse, they probably go into a congested sector which has already been protected. It was not so much of an issue in the past because there was capacity in the network to do it, but now that we do not have that we need to be more disciplined about doing it. It also impacts safety because, obviously, if the sectors become congested, they start to impose flight restrictions. ANSPs need to monitor the rate of such incursions and then reduce their declared capacity because of predictability so the network and, ultimately, the airlines lose out again. Divergence from flight plans is up about 50% from last year, so that means that-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

How do they get away with that?

Mr. Philip Hughes

What basically happens is that if I am a pilot-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Somebody has to let them take off and land.

Mr. Philip Hughes

If I am a pilot, what happens is that if I come into a particular sector, I radio ahead and ask if I can get a different flight level, and if I get a clearance to do it, they move on but there is a knock-on effect with the next air traffic circuit provider. If they do not stick to the flight plan, they are not presenting where we are planning-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

So it is up to each of the 37 ANSPs to rigidly not let people have the flexibility.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Precisely. It is a collaboration. The ANSPs need to say "No, you need to stick to your flight plan", but the flight operations people need to say "We need to stick to our flight plan or otherwise we are going to lose capacity in the system".

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

It should not be a case of an individual pilot seeing what suits him or her.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Precisely.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

But he or she is not too concerned about anyone else.

Mr. Philip Hughes

If I am an air traffic controller and someone is in my sector, then I want to get them out of there as quickly as possible because, for me, that is the delivery of the service but, from a system point of view, it does not work because then we lose, on average, 2,000 slots per day.

During the summer, it went up to 4,000.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Out of how many slots a day?

Mr. Philip Hughes

Probably 38,000 or 39,000.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

That is significant; it is 4% or 5%.

Mr. Philip Hughes

It is a significant impact.

The next slide reflects what I term the stakeholder reaction. Some members will have seen this in the news or in various forums - I think Michael O'Leary was before this committee. To be fair, they have a point. ATC services in Europe are at the worst levels ever due to mismanagement of European ATC. A4E wanted a much better match between capacity and demand to prevent air traffic controllers being in the wrong place at the wrong time. EasyJet was the same. Then, there is the petition, "Air traffic control ruined my holiday". A lot of pressure has been brought on politically at Commission level and at European level, where they would like to see and execute change. It reflects a lot of the frustrations because they are at the sharp end of this particular process in dealing with passengers. The situation is clearly bad and it is not just the airlines grandstanding, so to speak. Even though some work has been done, more is required. One needs to bear in mind it is not just the cost of delays, there are longer routes, less fuel-efficient routes and more emissions. That is where it is important. I am looking at some data on airline-reported figures for air traffic flow management, ATFM, route delays. It was 5.9 minutes in July and airline delays were about 5.4 minutes. Even with the average number I provided before, July was a particularly bad month.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I will let Deputy Farrell in in a minute. We might park the drones issue, which we will also talk about, for now. Who is the leader who can make the change? Is it Eurocontrol? Is it the Commission? Eurocontrol represents 41 states and 37 air navigation service providers, ANSPs, many of which are not in the EU and may not be beholden to the EU as such but equally have signed up to Eurocontrol. What organisation can say it will change it to give more capacity, force people to stick to flight plans, make sure airports let people in and out at the right time and so on? Who can crack the whip?

Mr. Philip Hughes

Nobody has the power to force people to do things. It has to be built by consensus. Our role is to try to build that consensus to facilitate that conversation, first by providing objective analysis of the problem and then talking to them about the best way to do that. That means all of the different parts of the network need to play their part. There needs to be a consensus about the best way to address that. There are no short-term structural changes we can make based on the level of traffic we see for 2025 unless we start to come together in a more coherent way. The best analogy for our role is an orchestra. We are like the conductor. We help them to play the music in a way that is harmonious but we do not play the instruments. It is to build a consensus view about the best-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

We will not say in the sense of a ringmaster in a circus.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Not a ringmaster. More of a conductor.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

We will not use that analogy. On ATC strikes, Michael O'Leary has been vociferous about French air traffic control. I think he has been very vociferous about the head of the ANSP in Britain, saying that he should resign and various things.

Mr. Philip Hughes

He did, yes.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

What are Mr. Hughes's thoughts on the fact that France has legislation which protects domestic flights from ATC problems, even though it is moving away from domestic flights anyway? Domestic flights are protected but overflights are not, which affects us even if we are going to Greece, Spain or Italy; if we go over France, we are in trouble. Is there a way out of that? Can we have a single European sky that is not affected by strikes at domestic level?

Mr. Philip Hughes

It is a matter for member states, from a domestic point of view, how they manage industrial relations. All we can do as Eurocontrol is mitigate the impact of ATC strikes as best we can.

I think there has been a discussion with other members by the member states that in the event of strikes - overflights in some other states would be on a pass through basis - it would be domestic flights that would be impacted. There is a lack of consistency in how that is applied. To be fair to the French, this year was a good year in terms of the strike piece but I think Michael O’Leary’s criticisms remain valid in the sense that Europe at an institutional level needs to address what is required in order to avoid the impact of these particular arrangements. If a member state has a domestic issue internally with its people, that should be a matter for it. Others should not necessarily be penalised. That is my personal view. This was something they tried to address with the Single European Sky legislation, which was passed recently. The Irish Minister at the time, now the Minister for Finance, Deputy Chambers, made a statement to say that he felt the level of ambition was - I cannot remember the exact phrase - underwhelming and needed more. From a political point of view, that is something member states need to consider in terms of how we can do this. We can see that if we have a system that is saturated, the knock-on effects have a very bad impact on everybody.

Deputy Alan Farrell

I thank Mr. Hughes for coming in. The stated organisational goal of Eurocontrol, according to its website, is expertise that spans the entire air traffic management cycle, from research and innovation to development and into operations of primary performance monitoring. Furthermore, it has a mission statement to deliver management excellence from the centre stage of pan-European aviation. My questions are a little bit technical and parochial, but are also about the knock-on impacts.

First and foremost, we have talked about the air navigation service providers, ANSPs, and the air traffic control and deviations. It has been reported to me, though I am not one for monitoring these things, that aircraft using Dublin Airport on a very regular basis are exceeding not only their flight plan, but the stated standard instrument departure charts for the airport. They are being given clearance or instructions by ATC to do so. If he is responsible, or partially responsible, for monitoring that sort of thing, can Mr. Hughes point me in the direction of a specific report that illustrates, for instance, that when aircraft are using the new north runway opened in August 2022 and departing over north county Dublin, they are achieving speeds below the threshold mandated height within the SID under the instruction of air traffic control?

I wish to get some understanding of, and-or a direction to somebody who might be able to get under the hood a little further, what exactly air control can do, along with its partners across Europe and, indeed, EASA as regards ensuring Dublin Airport is operated as efficiently as possible, given it now has two parallel runways. It looks to me, and from the eyes of experts who have reported it to me, that it clearly is not. There are certain patterns emerging that show it is perhaps an ATC issue in the sense that if it had more air traffic controllers, it might be in a position to operate more efficiently. More importantly, in terms of weather and the knock-on impacts across the European Continent, which I completely understand is the priority of this meeting, the deviations Mr. Hughes referred to have knock-on impacts, such as planes being in the wrong place at the wrong time because they did not stick to their flight plans and therefore they get into congested airspace, coupled with weather, mean miserable passengers, holiday-makers and business travellers as well.

What does Mr. Hughes believe Eurocontrol can do to improve that? What can any Irish authority or agencies do to improve it? It is clear there is an opportunity for us to learn from the mistakes of last summer, as identified on the screen at the moment. The various airlines and agencies have said various things about air traffic control. Are there things we can do in this House or within the European Parliament, for instance, to improve that position? If my questions on deviations, flight paths and runway usage are a little bit beyond Mr. Hughes's-----

Mr. Philip Hughes

Remit.

Deputy Alan Farrell

-----expertise or remit, he should please let me know.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Yes.

Deputy Alan Farrell

I would welcome, and I am certain my colleagues to my left would welcome, hearing any suggestions by Mr. Hughes of people whom we could call in to have a chat about it.

Mr. Philip Hughes

First, in respect of standard instrument departures at the airport, that is a matter for the airport operator. We do not have any role as such to play in that. It is usually the airport operator and the design of that is a matter for it.

Any deviation from that is an operational matter depending on the circumstances. Of course, the Irish Aviation Authority will monitor that, probably from a safety point of view. There are specific rules at International Civil Aviation Organization, ICAO, level in terms of airspace design and instrument departures but that is really a matter for the airport authorities themselves.

Deputy Alan Farrell

Let us pause there. My following comment has nothing to do with Mr. Hughes and is not personal.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Sure.

Deputy Alan Farrell

I am sure he can understand, as a representative of the airport region, how incredibly frustrating it is for him to answer that question in that way. I do not mean because of his answer to that but because he can imagine what it is like from my perspective and the perspective of my constituents. We are in this never-ending labyrinth of people saying "Well, that is not my responsibility. It is their responsibility. It is somebody else's responsibility." The very first response that Mr. Hughes gave me is that an SID is the responsibility of the airport operator. My issue, as a parliamentarian and somebody who has been very involved in airport operations for the entirety of my 20 years in politics, at various levels, is when I ask the airport operator to take a certain approach, bearing in mind the balanced approach they are supposed to take with regard to the usage of Irish skies, I am told, "Well, no, we do it that way or AirNav Ireland approve it" or whatever it might be. That is incredibly frustrating because I cannot get to a single person who is actually responsible. Frankly, if the operator does not want to do it, then it does not get done unless it is a safety issue but then they do not do it anyway.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Right.

Deputy Alan Farrell

It is very problematic, as Mr. Hughes can understand. My inter-related question is as follows. Is there a person or organisation and who is it-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Maybe there is not.

Deputy Alan Farrell

-----that has the authority to pull back from the table a little bit and say, "Hang on a second, where is the political oversight and accountability in this?" I ask because I do not see it. I see safety. Obviously safety is a priority and that is to be welcomed. There is no political oversight and accountability, however, because I cannot call in the airport operator - we tried - and say, "Can you please change this so that it impacts fewer people and-or benefits the travelling passenger?" Of course, if they are subject to weather, congestion and everything else then they are also materially impacting people on the ground. Ultimately, the people on the ground are my voters, so I am going to fight for them every single time. People want to go to Alicante for €19.99, and the guy who flies them can feck off as far as I am concerned.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I am sure that is unparliamentary language.

Deputy Alan Farrell

I am sure it is not on the list so we are okay.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Teetering on the edge, I think.

Mr. Philip Hughes

From a Eurocontrol point of view, we are there to provide support to the air traffic service providers and to the ANSPs. We have an airports unit that works specifically with all the different airports in terms of working on efficiency. It is things like helping them and collaborative decision-making to make sure they get as much efficiency out of the infrastructure as possible.

For the points raised by the Deputy, the design piece of that is, frankly, a domestic matter. Unless we are asked to provide advice or something like that, we do not have any executive authority to come in there.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I am sure Deputy Farrell would have preferred a different answer but at least it is an honest answer.

Deputy Alan Farrell

I did not expect a different answer.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

For the purpose of the transcript, does the Deputy want to withdraw his earlier comment?

Deputy Alan Farrell

For the purpose of the transcript, I withdraw my comment.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

We must keep everybody happy.

Deputy Alan Farrell

I apologise for using salty language.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

It is all right.

Deputy Alan Farrell

Ultimately, the conversation we are having is very important because of the knock-on impact. Most people in Ireland like to get away now and again and these impacts are presenting themselves on a more regular basis. If something is going to happen from a meteorological perspective, we need to adjust our approach accordingly. The big question identified by the airline operators is that we do not have enough air traffic controllers across the board. We have a crisis of recruitment. I am not sure whether we have a crisis of retention. I know the burn-out in the sector is particularly high and I know why. I am sure it is incredibly stressful work. Is there something Eurocontrol and-or its partners in the aviation sector throughout Europe can do to try to improve on this? Is there something we can do in this Parliament or in the European Parliament to further the ambition of trying to make our skies as safe as possible while reducing delays and congestion?

Mr. Philip Hughes

To turn to the air traffic capacity problem in terms of controllers, a number of states are now playing catch-up in terms of recruitment. This is the first piece. In the longer term we need to look at the systems we have to make sure they are more scalable to provide more support to air traffic controllers. This is one of the things we are considering at European level. Another element is the flexible use of airspace. The slide at the beginning of the meeting showed there are 17,800 controllers. If we had more flexible use of airspace, and if the traffic presented in a slightly different way, it would allow better use of the existing capacity. When we have 39 providers and 68 area control centres, it becomes difficult because of the fragmented nature of what we have in Europe.

In Ireland we have free route airspace. Generally if I look at it domestically the numbers are very good. When I go further east, as I said, they start to deteriorate in a significant way. I do not think it is a local problem per se because there are very modern systems and good controllers, and AirNav runs a very efficient operation. The problem is that when we move into central Europe there is very congested airspace. One of the things we have been doing is encouraging Germany, France and the Benelux countries to have more flexible use of airspace. To be fair, they have been responsible and there are plans in the pipeline to do this. We need to build a system that presents capacity in the places where demand comes. Flight profiles have changed since the Ukrainian war. There is a situation in the Balkans, for instance, whereby they are completely saturated and cannot cope. We need a system that is more flexible in terms of managing this. This really is the major goal of the document I circulated, which is the European ATM master plan. We need to have enablers in order to do it.

Deputy Alan Farrell

I have already touched on my next question in regard to assisting the committee in doing its business as a general ambition. This is with regard to the optimisation of having dual parallel runways. Deputy Smith, others and I would be very grateful for the direction and advice of Mr. Hughes on this. Maximising operations at an airport with dual parallel runways is for the operator but it also has an impact because the SIDs and flightpaths have an impact on people. Will Mr. Hughes consider whether there is there an agency outside of Ireland that has the relevant expertise, either professional or academic? Will he submit at a later time the names of individuals whom he feels would be beneficial to us to discuss the optimisation of an airport with dual parallel runways?

Mr. Philip Hughes

I am happy to research this. Off the top of my head I do not necessarily know who would be best to do it. We have to look at it holistically. It is not just the air traffic capacity. With two parallel runways the movements should be more than enough to meet the demand.

There are a number of other complexities as well that feed into that, which the Deputy would have to look at it. I can certainly take that offline and come back to the Leas-Chathaoirleach.

Deputy Alan Farrell

That would be appreciated.

Deputy Duncan Smith

I apologise to Mr. Hughes, my colleague Deputy Farrell and the Leas-Chathaoirleach for being late to the committee. I thank Mr. Hughes for coming to the committee.

On the 4.5% increase in European travel over the last year, if Europe as a continent continues to grow at that rate or maybe slightly less or more, at what point does that become unsustainable and we reach a crisis level, or an aviation field that is not functioning safely? That is my first question.

Mr. Philip Hughes

The answer to that is I think we have already started to come to a crisis level, and that is really the point of my presentation.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

We covered some of that earlier, and I am not having a go-----

Deputy Duncan Smith

That is fine.

Mr. Philip Hughes

To answer the Deputy's question, we are reaching saturation from an efficiency point of view. From a safety point of view, obviously that is primary, so what happens is the restrictions are put on to protect the sectors. The net effect is more delays, frankly. In fact, if we go to the next slide, we have indicated here the way forward for 2025 and beyond. We think there are three bits that we really need to do. First of all, we need to address the capacity shortfalls, which is the issue Deputy Farrell has highlighted. Second, we also need to improve the traffic demand accuracy. We have talked about scheduling and we have spoken about making sure, so we are asking all of the airlines to give us, by October, their complete schedule for next year and we will engage with them with regard to understanding the impact. A lot of it is trying to get the data to understand what is involved.

Members probably know, for instance, that the challenge will be the fact that Turkish Airlines is planning to double its fleet. Members will have seen that EasyJet and Ryanair have a shortfall in delivery, so we know there are more aircraft coming into the system. Therefore, we need to address that and fully deliver on what we proposed, the five pillars that I spoke about before and which are dealing with the impact of weather to try to make that less of a complexity, particularly in congested sectors, and then to look at operational priorities, such as discipline with regard to how they execute their flight plans and making sure the schedules built in are realistic in trying to maximise the efficiency. They are short-term ways in which we can do it. We are looking at 2025, and that is our goal in trying to deal with the near-term thing.

There is a challenge. If you look at the master plan, you are probably looking at a maximum of 46,000 flights per day versus 36,000 at the moment. In my view, there needs to be a fundamental investment in system. There are three things. First, with regard to the systems themselves, you need to look at the architecture, and open architecture so you have scalable systems. One of the things they struggle with today is increasing capacity. Some of that involves the use of technical solutions, perhaps even in the longer term artificial intelligence, to help us to look at the predictability and management. Second, the biggest single efficiency you can make with air traffic controllers is if we can introduce datalink. At the moment, it is all done by voice using VHF comms. With datalink, and we know this from our centre in Maastricht, you can increase the air traffic controller's capacity and efficiency very radically. To do that, we need-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Mr. Hughes might explain what datalink is. I am not sure anyone out there really knows.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Datalink, at a really simple level, is like text messaging for aeroplanes. Rather than me talking to you and saying "Listen, turn right, turn left or go to this level", I send a text message and you go, and I can see from your flight management system where you are going. At the moment, we are using some old technology to do that. We think that one of the big near-term efficiencies we can do is if we introduce better quality datalink. That will increase the range of the message set and increase its efficiency. We already know from Maastricht because we have enhanced the datalinking there. It increases the flight profile efficiency by 40%.

It also makes the air traffic controller's job easier. For me, that is the single biggest piece.

The third element is about airspace redesign in the sense of flexible use of airspace and better integration with the military whereby there is better use of military airspace where it is delegated in a more dynamic way. That is something we can work on.

Those are the three elements that need to be put in place to do that.

Deputy Duncan Smith

We are in an environment where an awful lot of airlines are looking and planning to grow. As Mr. Hughes said, we are at a crisis point in the context of air traffic capacity. In that overall context, do bespoke or individual planning conditions, such as either passenger caps or total flight movements, help Eurocontrol to curb any further immediate growth, even though that may not be the intention behind an individual planning condition? Obviously, there is the planning cap relating to an airport. Is Eurocontrol saying that it is a good thing that there is a cap on movement or passenger numbers at airport A at this time, given that we are at such a crisis point?

Mr. Philip Hughes

Our role is to provide advice and technical indications of how it works. We believe there are already solutions that can help to increase capacity. We think that we also need to address sustainability as part of that, but that is a different topic. Our view is that there are some enablers that can be put in place to enhance that. However, that is a matter of public policy for member states and at European level. We can provide the data to do that and indicate the required solutions. The master plan document indicates that we need to invest €25 billion over 15 or 20 years in order to enhance and develop the system and create the required efficiencies. For every euro invested, there is a return of €17. Looking at the socioeconomic benefits, the amount involved is €53. Unless we are prepared to make that investment, however, we have to discuss the type of issues or procedures that Deputy Smith outlined.

Deputy Duncan Smith

That is interesting. On the sustainability side, I refer to sustainable aviation fuel and its production, future use, etc. Where are we at with that in the context of European aviation?

Mr. Philip Hughes

The short answer is that we do not have enough of it.

Deputy Duncan Smith

Is there light at the end of the tunnel on this? Are we making progress or is it a pipe dream?

Mr. Philip Hughes

The short answer is that we are making progress. One of the big things we are doing is building what we call the FlyingGreen platform, which is basically taking the data and measuring things such as CO2 and non-CO2 emissions, contrails, etc. Looking at the roadmap for 2050 towards net zero, hydrogen aircraft will not come online until the mid-2030s. We have seen improvements in engine performance, hull performance and so on. However, sustainable aviation fuel, SAF, is the way we need to go. The problem with SAF is that there are limited amounts of it available and that you are in competition with other modes of transport for it. For somewhere like Ireland, we should be the place involved in the production of SAF using wind because we have the location to do it. There is an opportunity here. However, at national level – I am using that in the broadest sense – there needs to be a greater political imperative towards the production of sustainable aviation fuel because that is the best near-term solution we will get to do that. To answer the Deputy’s question, there is not enough. More needs to be done. One of the areas we have been particularly trying to develop – we are working closely not just with DG MOVE but with DG CLIMA, DG DEFIS and a number of other European institutions – is how we can actually get to that point.

Deputy Darren O'Rourke

I am sorry that I missed some of Mr. Hughes’ presentation. I had to step out for a minute. I thank him for attending and for his detailed presentation.

I will pick up on a couple of points.

Mr. Hughes talked about the opportunity to deliver efficiencies and he referenced datalink and the systems. One thing we hear from the airlines themselves, and I might have the terminology wrong, is about open skies and the inefficiencies. They give out about French air traffic controllers. Is Mr. Hughes familiar with this?

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

We touched on some this when the Deputy was not here but we can go back over it.

Deputy Darren O'Rourke

Are there efficiencies to be delivered with open skies?

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

The Single European Sky, is that it?

Mr. Philip Hughes

If I step back and look at it, Europe is particularly fragmented. If I was designing it with a blank sheet of paper, I would not do it like this.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Mr. Hughes would not start from here.

Mr. Philip Hughes

I would not start from here as the Kerry farmer would say. We have to look at how can we get over this fragmentation issue. That is an institutional and political issue. This comes back to the then Minister, Deputy Chambers's statement, which he made earlier in the year, when they rolled out the latest version of the Single European Sky. The level of ambition needs to increase and the airlines are correct in the sense that what they see as a fragmented service where you get different levels of services depending on where you go. If you are going from Ireland, you get really good service here with AirNav because you have free route airspace and you can get out. You then come to certain places and there are blockages. That is where they find the whole thing frustrating.

It is a network, which is the point. We need to think as a network if we are going to deal with these traffic constraints. As Napoleon said, you march at the speed of the slowest soldier. We need to get everybody's level up to make sure that performance is consistent.

Deputy Darren O'Rourke

I refer to working towards the efficiency of the network and bringing it up to a standard, taking that and putting it into an Irish context. The debate is a very live one at the minute because of Dublin Airport's cap. I heard the Minister of State, Deputy Lawless, on the radio last week or the week before talking about capacity at Shannon Airport or the regional airports. Does Eurocontrol offer an opinion on that? Mr. Hughes mentioned the advice he could give to states or governments on these issues. Is that one of the types of things Eurocontrol looks towards, that is, the efficient use of the available airport capacity?

Mr. Philip Hughes

We are available to any stage to provide the expertise needed. It depends on the question. Flight capping at airports is a domestic matter and is dealt through the planning authorities. Frankly, that is not something in which we are directly involved.

Deputy Darren O'Rourke

What about the efficient use of available capacity?

Mr. Philip Hughes

We publish a lot of statistics on exactly that topic. We would do things on like arrival times and departure times. We would have a table of all the different airports that have the most delays and we break it down by that. We have a programme to support the airports and to provide them with the tools they need to enhance efficiency. How do all the different parties at the airport collaborate and what kind of systems are needed? We do a lot of work at a technical level to support them, mainly through our airports unit, right throughout Europe. It depends on what the local issue is and where the pinch point lies.

Deputy Darren O'Rourke

If I submit a planning application to Meath County Council or Irish Water as a notifiable body or somebody else as a notifiable body-----

Mr. Philip Hughes

We are not a notifiable body because that is domestic legislation and that is where it stems from.

Deputy Darren O'Rourke

If the State was updating or reviewing its national aviation policy, does it not automatically consult with Eurocontrol?

Mr. Philip Hughes

No. We run what we call a support to states programme. We talk to each of the member states about what they want to do. Sometimes it is about implementing regulations. It might be around cybersecurity. We get a lot of queries on drones, and I will come to that in terms of aeroplanes risk assessments, but generally speaking it depends on what the pinch point is with each member state as to what it requires. Obviously, we are there to provide the expertise if it is required and we do, at an airport level, provide a lot of technical support as the airports approach us and ask if we help them with this particular issue.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Is that the air navigation provider or the actual airport authority itself?

Mr. Philip Hughes

It is a combination of both. If I think about collaborative decision-making, that is the responsibility of the Dublin Airport Authority. It is the one who brings all of the parties together. AirNav Ireland provides the air capacity but deals with the users as well. That is-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

AirNav Ireland is one of Eurocontrol's 41 members.

Mr. Philip Hughes

It is one of the players as part of that and it provides some of the technical enablers to do it. It tends to take the lead on it, and I know this because I was involved, when I worked with the IAA, in the signing of a CDM agreement with the Dublin Airport Authority. That helps to-----

Deputy Darren O'Rourke

In terms of design, Mr. Hughes mentioned airspace redesign, the design of flight paths or the efficient use of flight paths, and we have a specific issue at Dublin Airport related to military airspace. Does Eurocontrol have a role or how is that co-ordinated at European Union level to maximise efficiency and take all of those considerations into account to get the best possible result?

Mr. Philip Hughes

Generally, most of our focus is at an en route level, which is high-level airspace. We do it as well lower down in terms of terminal approach. Around airports, it is generally the operator who does that. The problem in Dublin is that there is a complex airspace because there is both Baldonnel and Weston. That makes the airspace more complex. There are a number of private companies that do things such as airspace design and which would facilitate that. That is, therefore, a conversation with the operators. Generally speaking, we do not have any competence or do not do airspace design in the terminal area sense. We certainly do it and facilitate it for upper airspace. In our centre in Brétigny-sur-Orge we run simulations. In particular with regard to the flexible use of airspace we do a lot on that. That is where we have helped.

Deputy Darren O'Rourke

Mr. Hughes touched on the new departure with drones and drone technology.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

We have not actually covered the issue of drones yet. I was going to bring Mr. Hughes back in after Deputy O'Rourke to do so.

Mr. Philip Hughes

I have a few slides on the drones.

Deputy Darren O'Rourke

I will hand back to the Chair and I thank Mr. Hughes.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Will Mr. Hughes go to the next slide, which is about drones?

Mr. Philip Hughes

That is just a summary and to emphasise the point about the network manager. To go back to Deputy Smith's point about what we can do to help out, we will support the stakeholders. The next slide deals with the issue of drones. Obviously, this is very topical. By 2030, up to 5 billion people will live in cities, which will be 60% of the world's population. Drones will play a very big role in everything, from delivering a person's coffee and pizza to medical devices, etc. Therefore, this is part of the challenge. To do that, there will need to be an investment in infrastructure to try to ensure that will work.

The next slide deals with what the future urban environment will look like. I received this particular slide from Manna Drone Delivery that is based in Blanchardstown and has been running an operation out there. It has worked very closely with the IAA and is at the cutting edge of innovation. There is everything from surveillance drones, connecting to urban and suburban regions, and integration with intelligent transport needed so things can be moved around. It is a complicated picture and there are a lot of different services that might be provided as part of that. For instance, using Manna as an example, in terms of developments it has just been licensed by the IAA to provide drone services in Helsinki to be operated remotely here. We start to see the whole situation is changing.

In Fort Worth in Texas in the US, they are doing an integration between whole airport operations and drones for cargo.

That is another thing we see. There are a number of sandboxes in terms of development in Europe. We are talking to the Japanese at the moment because they are proposing to roll out electrical vertical take-off aircraft at Osaka for the World Expo next year. It can be seen that things are moving ahead very rapidly.

I will go to the next slide. Our role is trying to engage with all of the aviation players. There are many players in that space. The Commission is driving it at a political level. EASA is devising the regulations on U-space. A great deal of work is also being done by all of the air navigation service providers, ANSPs. In Ireland, AirNav Ireland has been working very closely with Manna and a number of others, including Maynooth University, with regard to development. A lot of the stuff is being driven by the cities themselves, that is, by urban areas and urban district councils. We see that particularly in rural areas. The example I am thinking of is in Finland, where a cluster of cities are working on developing drones. It can be seen that it is very dynamic. The other interesting people are the military. Particularly with the situation in Ukraine, the development of drones is accelerating rapidly. The situation is interesting but it also means that there will be greater competition for airspace, to go back to our discussion about the network being saturated. In some ways, we need the system to integrate that.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Is there a flight level they do not go above? How high can they go? What would they normally see?

Mr. Philip Hughes

Typically, it is proposed that they would operate below a certain flight level and in segregated airspace.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Would that be 1,000 ft or 10,000 ft?

Mr. Philip Hughes

Usually it would be 500 ft or 600 ft but in some areas it could be up to 5,000 ft. It should not be forgotten that in higher-level areas, above 60,000 ft, the military have been using drones for 25 years.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

That is above 60,000 ft.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Yes. A drone going to Afghanistan is controlled from somewhere in California.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

They are above everybody.

Mr. Philip Hughes

They are above everybody. Absolutely. That is already happening. The whole area of higher-airspace operations is really interesting because there are developments such that, in that airspace, there will be what are essentially giant balloons put up by the likes of Google to provide 5G services. There is also the proposed return of supersonic aircraft, which the US is developing. It is a very interesting piece. There is then the other impact of space operations. I know I am digressing slightly. A number of states are starting to------

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

If you thought the sky was full or saturated already, it is going to be much more saturated.

Mr. Philip Hughes

It is becoming more complex. That is it. If we move to the next slide, the members will see that the Commission is trying to push this as regards aerial operations, innovation and developing and implementing U-space regulations. This is the 2.0 strategy the Commission brought forward last year. Again, this is part of the whole move towards integrating it into the public arena.

Going to the next slide, in terms of the service value chain, the area we focus on is airspace management and integration and risk mitigation. How do you integrate drones into controlled airspace? Much of the stuff we do in our innovation centre in Brétigny is a test platform for how that works and how they will come together. The dotted lines show the interface where we are working with a number of the vehicle manufacturers. There are any number of them. Every week, there is a new one coming on stream. What infrastructure is needed to support unmanned aerial vehicle, UAV, operations? There is then the link back to the community. What are the business operations, such as Manna, but also what is the impact on communities? How do you deal with the social acceptability issues? On top of that, it can be seen that you have the regulators devising the standards, both EASA and IACO, and other players in the key value chain in doing that.

That is the sweet spot for us with regard to helping to do that integration work and doing much of the testing. On the next slide, the role of Eurocontrol is really related to research, development, validation, deployment and leadership and promotion to exchange information between all the different players. It is about trying to build the safety cases and risk assessments which are required to do that.

The next slide addresses the big challenges. Operationally, you have to revise the rules of the air to allow the operation of drones in conventional airspace. It is not fit for purpose at the moment. The other problem is that current battery technology constrains flight duration, so that requires new operating methods. If I am using an eVTOL, I need to have a landing space in case the battery fails, with the current technology which exists. On the next slide, from a technical point of view, there are limitations regarding weight and power. Coming back to the Leas-Chathaoirleach's point, it is a low-altitude operation. That creates demand for the kind of infrastructure needed to monitor where that is and how it works. You also need a data exchange model so that you know where they are and what the performance is on a regular basis.

There are a number of technical challenges regarding the required infrastructure. The next slide addresses regulation, which is challenging. I know that in Ireland, the IAA is at the leading edge of developing regulations for what is required. It has worked closely with many of the operators. It is clued into how some of those changes are to be made. I know it is proposing some changes to what needs to be done. However, it represents a steep learning curve. We see that even with EASA in Cologne. It is catching up with what the industry can provide. The standards on which regulations usually depend are still being written. The regulations are catching up with the operational concept as it is developing. From a regulatory point of view, that is the challenge.

The next slide addresses what I would term the political and social acceptability issue. People are obviously not as accepting with regard to safety. There are privacy issues, which I am sure have come to members' attention from all their constituents, and noise. That is a challenge with how this might work. One area where we provide help on airspace risk assessment is to try to mitigate those three problems. It gets into the area of geofencing and closing off certain areas where there are certain sensitivities. That is all part of what needs to be done and challenged. It is an interesting mix. We see it is moving ahead and developing. We need to prepare for it. Our role in Eurocontrol is to help to build tools for how that integration might work.

I think the next slide is the last one. I threw this up to show the challenges with the different types of aircraft which might appear. There is everything from eVTOLs to package delivery, such as Mannas. There are then larger aircraft. As you move further up in the airspace, you can see many new types of vehicles which are starting to appear. How do you integrate that airspace and make it scalable, interoperable and reliable? This is where new technology will really start to come into its own. I do not think that much of that would use conventional air traffic control methodologies. It will be more automated, frankly. That is my quick run-through on drones.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

It is interesting, and I will bring everybody in. I will come in with a couple of impressions. Is it the case that it may not be that far away that we can put a backpack on us with a drone or something, and take off and head into town?

Mr. Philip Hughes

You can already put on a backpack and blast off if you want. There are some interesting videos on YouTube. I would not recommend it personally.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

The technology is getting there.

Mr. Philip Hughes

The technology is already there.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I do not see like-----

Mr. Philip Hughes

The electronic taxis for instance-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Could we see hundreds of people-----

Mr. Philip Hughes

The eVTOL drones would be the first I would think of in some places. I know they did some work in São Paolo, Brazil, where they are building eVTOLs to avoid traffic. That is already there. There are already medical deliveries going around the ring roads in certain cities in Europe, delivering organs and special medicines, because it is quicker to do it than drive in a taxi or car or something like that. It is already starting. Like I said, the Manna Drone thing, where they will be operating drones in Helsinki which are controlled in Ireland, is a sign of a step forward.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I am thinking out loud. When people were doing up their houses 20 years ago, they were putting in Cat5 cable everywhere. Two years later wireless came along, and it was completely redundant after people had put wires in every room to ensure they had connectivity. This is not to take away from the wonderful MetroLink project that is close to the heart of Deputy Smith and others. Could it be the case we will all be putting on our backpacks and heading out to Dublin Airport in a little drone?

Mr. Philip Hughes

It could.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

All of these underground tunnels will not be needed in the same way.

Mr. Philip Hughes

It is possible, but it depends.

(Interruptions).

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Sorry, members. It is semi-farcical-----

Mr. Philip Hughes

There are technical limitations.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

-----but is it, though? That is the question. I am genuinely asking if it will be the case that people will be coming out of Leinster House or any other workplace and putting on their drone backpack? There could be hundreds or thousands of people heading out the N11 or the N7 to go home every day. Is that technically where we could be heading?

Mr. Philip Hughes

If the Chair looks at the first slide from Manna Drones, he will see that what will happen is there will be integrated transport solutions. You may have an eVTOL where you come to a train station where those linkages are made. I think it might be part of the solution. I do not think it will be the full solution because the volume of traffic would be challenging to do that, but it will be part of it. For us, the question is, if it is part of it, how do you manage it, how do you integrate it and how do you deal with safety issues and things of public concern?

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I presume a lot of it is battery driven, and there is lithium and the metals that go into it.

Mr. Philip Hughes

That is one of the limitations.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

It is thought provoking. It may happen at one stage, maybe not in our lifetimes, but who knows.

Mr. Philip Hughes

It was like looking at "The Jetsons", if the Chair remembers that.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I think I remember seeing the repeats.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Very diplomatic.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I am older than the two members. Would either of them like to come in? I may come back in later. It is almost so far out there it is hard to get our heads around.

Deputy Duncan Smith

We have been dealing with drone issues vis-à-vis Dublin Airport where they impinge on the airspace. In Balbriggan, County Dublin, private pilot projects have been set up for delivery of takeaways, packages and all the rest. That is happening in other parts of Dublin and the country. I am not sure I have any questions, as such, on what Mr. Hughes has presented today. It is fascinating. It has made me think about things in a broader and more meta way than just the issues as they crop up. I thank Mr. Hughes. I will not just make up a question for the sake of it, but it was interesting.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

It is kind of thought provoking.

Deputy Duncan Smith

Yes, very thought provoking.

Mr. Philip Hughes

The Deputy is right. Nobody has any of the answers, but I think, politically, they will start to come down the line because social acceptance and people’s concerns about it will-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Privacy.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Privacy will be important. It is important to know there is work going on to look at that and to understand what the impact of that will be. That is important. It is interesting. I was talking to people in Ukraine and they were talking about the end of the war. One of the interesting things from a society point of view is that obviously drones for military reasons have become much more acceptable there.

They believe they will be one of the catalysts for accelerating the deployment of those kinds of things because they have been through the experience.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

It is a little like how Covid-19 started us all using plastic instead of cash.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Yes, absolutely. We can see the societal changes. We already know that companies like Uber and Deliveroo struggle to get through the traffic and, as a result, there is a business case or business model for doing it. It is interesting. The other point is that there is a great deal of private capital going into this. Many of the major companies such as Google and Boeing have bought a number of companies in this space. The initial wave which I call the inventor or entrepreneur types has gone through and now we are looking at the commercialisation of it.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Scaling.

Mr. Des Carville

Yes, scaling and stuff like that. To take a domestic example, companies like Avolon have been involved here.

Deputy Darren O'Rourke

I will continue on the same point. We have seen it in many other arenas. The technology advances, often on the back of military adventure, and it is now happening at scale. For us on the politics and policy side, the question is how to manage and regulate it, because without doubt, the potential of the technology will increase exponentially.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Do either of the members want to comment on the other slides from earlier?

I want to touch on one or two points and then we will probably have finished. We might have touched on this at our meeting in Brussels. Historically, planes flew in straight lines to particular points, so there were a lot of triangle-type routes. That used a simpler technology than the one now available. Are we working towards a more point to point approach? AirNav told us that on an American basis, it can allow the airlines move within a certain range, depending on winds and so forth. Can airlines now say they will go in a straight line from Dublin to Paris or is it still the case that they have to go to Liverpool, down to Cardiff, across to London and down that way?

Mr. Philip Hughes

It depends on the country. In Ireland, we have had free route airspace since 2012. It works well. We also have the advantage that ATC has the ability to change the shape of the sector depending on how the traffic presents. Therefore, from an ATM point of view it is very efficient. The UK introduced it quite recently, particularly in Scotland, but when they get further into congested airspace, they struggle a little. More free route is still needed in central Europe.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

In respect of sustainability, fuel burning and capacity building, it is all good.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Yes, it is a good thing and it is all possible. However, one of the complications is the weather. Then airlines want to avoid going point to point. Even from a sustainability point of view, it is probably more sustainable to fly around than to go through.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I understand that part of it.

Mr. Philip Hughes

This comes back to the point I made about open systems and scalable architecture. We need to have the ability to make those kinds of changes in a dynamic way, depending on how things are.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Would some countries lose out? At present, aircraft are flying through their airspace, but they might not have to do so. They might not get the money they used to get so they want to keep them flying the old routes.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Typically the answer to the first part of that is "Yes" in the sense that they would lose revenue, depending on whether the traffic-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

They might pick up on something else.

Mr. Philip Hughes

They might, but in a market that is saturated, people are looking for the way to get passengers to their destinations more quickly. For argument's sake, fuel might be 20% of the cost and ATC charges might only be 5%. To be fair, the airlines are incredibly sophisticated with their client management systems. They might say that if they go that way, while it might be a little more expensive, it will get them to the point. This comes back to flight discipline, which we say we need to maintain. Even though we can see there is a smarter way to try to do this, the knock-on effect might not be good. It is a very dynamic situation in the context of how it is evolving.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Do we have any idea how much European airspace is blocked off for the military? I would not imagine the amount is enormous in Ireland, but in some parts of Europe it might be different. Obviously, in Ukraine it is completely different. Are there big chunks of Germany or Britain that are blocked off?

Mr. Philip Hughes

There are, yes.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Do we have any idea of the percentages?

Mr. Philip Hughes

Off the top of my head, I do not know the exact percentage, but I know from talking to my military colleagues in Brussels that France and Germany have quite large chunks of airspace set aside for exercises. Interestingly, they are considering how they can integrate with different member states to have joint solutions. This was really brought on by the introduction of F-35s. They need a bigger playground, not so much because of their speed but because they can see farther ahead. The military are looking at ways of sharing airspace to minimise the amount required. They are also considering the flexible use of airspace so that when finished doing the exercises, they can hand it back to the civil authorities.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

So it is not blocked off 24-7.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Precisely. When going to London in the mornings, Welsh airspace is usually blocked off because of the military doing exercises with the Eurofighter. You go to Liverpool and then down to London. In the afternoon, that airspace closes down and you go straight over Milford Haven and come back in that way. Increasingly, the authorities are trying to release the airspace back into-----

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Perhaps the military would be at a very high level or a relatively low level and you could fly through the middle, above them or-----

Mr. Philip Hughes

They generally tend to block it off in case something might not work.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

In ten, 20 or 50 years' time, as airspace becomes increasingly saturated, maybe those will all be examined.

Mr. Philip Hughes

That would be a challenge, but we should not forget that the military is also examining its own ability to respond to near-war conditions, particularly in light of the circumstances in Ukraine. If I look farther east, I see that Poland has many military training areas. It is the same in the Baltic countries. In Riga, there are very large military airspaces, and that is because of the political situation. This is being examined, and there are more exercises involving joint co-operation. The relevant authorities learned lessons when the situation arose in 2022 in Ukraine, consequent to which they had to re-evaluate how they worked together and so on. They have a challenging agenda to do that but they are committed to using some of the tools to reduce dependency or increase efficiency of airspace.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

We did not really touch on it but how impactful was the issue of Russia? British Airways has cancelled its service to Beijing, and other airlines are using polar routes or, as Mr. Hughes said, flying down through Bulgaria, Turkey and so on. Is it the case that very few airlines, or almost none, go through Russia anymore? Maybe the Chinese airlines do.

Mr. Philip Hughes

European airlines are forbidden to go through.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

Does that apply not just to EU airlines but also to pretty much all European airlines?

Mr. Philip Hughes

Yes, all European airlines. Turkey is exempt, so a lot of traffic comes from Russia down via Turkey. Chinese airlines are still flying through Russia. Some of the major flag carriers have said they are at a competitive disadvantage because their flights to wherever they are going, such as Japan, are three hours longer than they would be if going through Russia. The circumstances have created an inefficiency in the system and have also meant we are more dependent on routes that go through the Middle East, trans-Caucasia and India.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

And not too much polar airspace. Finland-----

Mr. Philip Hughes

We do a bit; that is true, but, again, one is skirting around Russia. The Finns have nearly been cut off. I remember we used to go to Tokyo via Helsinki but such routes are no longer economically viable. The Finns have been affected by the whole process.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

So the cutting of Russia has been quite impactful on European airspace.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Yes. Like I said, it is a matter of the way in which the traffic now presents itself.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

The heat map showed that.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Exactly. That shows the position on blockages. If you are facing a 20% increase in traffic in your local area, it is very difficult to wrap it up. The systems themselves are not scalable; that is part of it.

With air traffic control, it tends to go in steps. It is not a linear progression, so we need to build-in for that reality. Equally, post-Covid-19, there were cash flow problems in many instances and this meant investments were not made, engineers were laid off and there was no recruitment. The pain from this is now being felt.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

There was a feeling the numbers would go low and stay low but they did not.

Mr. Philip Hughes

It is true the industry has rebounded much more dynamically than expected.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I thank Mr. Hughes for all the information he has given us. It has been extremely enlightening and thought-provoking. The members here really appreciated it. I also thank Mr. Hughes for when we visited him in Brussels. Is there anything we, as a committee or as legislators, can do to help Eurocontrol or AirNav with what they are doing?

Mr. Philip Hughes

From talking to representatives of AirNav and the IAA, I know they appreciate all the support they get from this committee. They find it is very useful in their work. I do not want to put words in their mouths, but, anecdotally, this is true.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

That is good to hear.

Mr. Philip Hughes

Understanding the nature of the problem and instituting and supporting political moves to help in this regard would help, including moving towards having Single European Sky legislation, increasing harmonisation and looking at making investments in the longer term in systems to enhance efficiency. This is what I have in the master plan and the committee can see the business case. We have done large-scale simulations with it. We have run it on our systems in Brétigny-sur-Orge and we can see what the impact of some of these solutions would be. It is possible to overcome the problems.

The other aspect concerns sustainability, which is a societal issue. Having the political will to move towards using sustainable aviation fuels is a key enabler to addressing this issue. It is not going away. We can see the impact of the climate change we are already witnessing and, therefore, this is something we need to be aware of.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I thank Mr. Hughes for assisting us today.

Mr. Philip Hughes

I thank the Leas-Chathaoirleach.

An Leas-Chathaoirleach

I thank everybody very much. The meeting is now adjourned.

The joint committee adjourned at 3.07 p.m. sine die.