The data requested by the Deputy for the period 2012-2015 are set out in the table below. My Department’s current forecast horizon is to 2015 and so forecasts post 2015 are not published at present. The 2012 to 2015 forecasts are taken from the Stability Programme Update (SPU) published in April this year. The Deputy should note that my Department is currently updating its macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts and these updated figures will be published in the coming weeks.
Department of Finance Macroeconomic and Fiscal Projections 2012-2015 - as per April 2012 SPU
|
-
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
|
Nominal GDP (rounded to nearest €25m)
|
158,925
|
164,175
|
171,150
|
178,850
|
|
Real GDP Growth
|
0.7
|
2.2
|
3
|
3
|
|
Nominal GNP (rounded to nearest €25m)
|
124,650
|
127,575
|
132,050
|
136,975
|
|
Real GNP Growth
|
-0.2
|
1.4
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
|
General Government Balance (rounded to nearest €5m)
|
-13,115
|
-12,355
|
-8,140
|
-4,950
|
|
General Government Balance as % of GDP
|
-8.3
|
-7.5
|
-4.8
|
-2.8
|
|
National Debt Interest Expenditure* (€ billions)
|
6.1
|
7.0
|
7.6
|
8.0
|
|
National Debt Interest Expenditure as % of GDP
|
3.9
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
4.5
|
|
National Debt - year-end estimate (€ billions)
|
138.1
|
152.8
|
163.4
|
170.4
|
|
Implied Average Interest Rate
|
4.8
|
4.8
|
4.8
|
4.8
|
Rounding may affect totals
*National debt interest expenditure excludes the sinking fund payment & debt management expenses. Together these three items make up total debt servicing expenditure.
As regards assumed average interest rates, having consulted with the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), I am of the view that it would be unwise to provide details regarding interest rate assumptions on new debt issuance as this could compromise the State’s ability to access funds at the most competitive rate possible.
However, it is possible to calculate an implied technical average interest rate by dividing the estimated national debt interest expenditure for the year in question by the average stock of national debt outstanding in that year. These implied average interest rates are shown in the table above.
