The estimated full year yield, estimated by reference to 2013 incomes, of increasing the reduced USC rate, currently 4%, to 7% for income earners aged 70 or over and or medical cardholders with income liable to USC between €16,016 to €60,000 would be of the order of €75 million. While income earners aged 70 or over are identifiable on tax records the identity of medical cardholders is not as complete or clear-cut. However, using the existing data on those aged 70 or over, and by making certain assumptions about medical cardholders, it is tentatively estimated that the proportion of the estimated yield from the change would originate from each group on approximately a 1:2 basis.
The basic calculations are derived from the Revenue tax-forecasting model using actual data for the year 2010 adjusted as necessary for income and employment trends in the interim. They are, therefore, provisional and likely to be revised.