The social impact of a range of potential welfare and tax measures were assessed by the Department of Social Protection as part of the deliberative process for Budget 2014. This included some measures suggested at the department’s Pre Budget Forum by community and voluntary groups. This pre-Budget analysis of options for 2014 has already been released under FOI (with one very limited redaction) and I will arrange for my officials to send the Deputy a copy.
Social impact assessment is an evidence-based methodology which uses a tax/welfare simulation model developed by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) to estimate the likely distributive effects of budgetary measures on income and social inequalities.
The Department is currently preparing an analysis of the main tax and welfare measures being introduced in 2014. The Social Impact Assessment will include an analysis of the distributive and poverty impacts of these changes on different family types as well as the impact on at risk of poverty levels. The ESRI published their analysis of the distributional impact of Budget 2014 in December last. This analysis is innovative in that it captures for the first time tax changes relating to DIRT, pensions’ reliefs, health insurance reliefs and capital gains taxes and will inform the social impact assessment being undertaken in the Department. I will be examining the social impact assessment when it is finalised and I will publish it in due course.