Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 20 February 2014
17. Deputy Bernard J. Durkan asked the Minister for Finance the extent to which any excess scope exists for economic growth in addition to that already anticipated for 2014 and 2015 with particular reference to the prospect of narrowing the gap between revenue and current borrowing requirements and at the same retaining the target of borrowing at or below 3% of GDP; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [8293/14]
View answerThe last set of macroeconomic projections produced by my Department was published with the Budget in October of last year. On the basis of data available at the time, my Department projected real GDP growth of 2.0 per cent for 2014 and 2.3 per cent in 2015. The 2014 projection was endorsed by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council as was required.
Since the Budget, there have been continued signs of recovery in Ireland's key trading partners, most notably in the UK, US and euro area.
On the domestic front, third quarter GDP figures were reasonably good and high-frequency data relating to the final quarter of last year are broadly encouraging. In the labour market, annual employment growth of 3.2 per cent (58,000 jobs) was recorded in the third quarter, while the unemployment rate has continued to fall. Retail sales were reasonably good at the end of last year, while car sales were up significantly in January.
In summary, therefore, the incoming data confirm my Department's view that recovery is underway. Having said that, risks to the outlook - both positive and negative - remain and we must be cognisant of these. A fuller assessment of the economic outlook, including updated forecasts, will be undertaken as part of the Stability Programme Update which will be published in April.
As I have repeatedly stressed, the Government is committed to ensuring that Ireland's public finances remain on a stable footing. In this regard, the Government remains determined to correct the excessive deficit - that is to bring it below 3 per cent of GDP - by 2015.
