Ruth Coppinger
Question:96. Deputy Ruth Coppinger asked the Minister for Finance the primary budget deficit if there were no adjustments in budget 2015. [32430/14]
View answerThursday, 17 July 2014
Questions (96)
Written answers
The most up-to-date budgetary estimates, published in the Stability Programme Update (SPU) in April, are based on the assumption of a consolidation package of €2.0bn in 2015 which is designed to deliver a deficit of 2.9 per cent of GDP in 2015. This forecast projected that the primary general government balance will be €3.3 billion in 2015 (1.9% of GDP). The macroeconomic forecasts underpinning the SPU have been endorsed by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC).
As the Deputy may be aware, the SPU forecast did not take into account the recently revised estimates of GDP by the Central Statistics Office. This will be taken into account along with the most up-to-date macroeconomic and fiscal data when deciding on the adjustment package necessary closer to Budget time.
Furthermore, I should point out that a different quantum of consolidation would change the outlook for economic activity and revenue growth. Therefore, the exact impact on revenue and the deficit is difficult to estimate given the significant number of dependent factors.
Overall, given the number of moving parts and only six months of revenue and expenditure data to hand, it is too early to speculate on what the starting position for the Budget will be. The next formal forecast will be set out in the White Paper on Receipts and Expenditures which will be published in advance of the Budget and will set out the no-policy-change position for 2015 based on the updated macroeconomic forecasts that have to be endorsed by (IFAC).