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UK Referendum on EU Membership

Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 21 June 2016

Tuesday, 21 June 2016

Questions (1, 2, 3, 4, 5)

Niall Collins

Question:

1. Deputy Niall Collins asked the Taoiseach the contingencies he has in place to protect Irish jobs and trade should the United Kingdom vote to exit the European Union in its upcoming referendum. [16123/16]

View answer

Gerry Adams

Question:

2. Deputy Gerry Adams asked the Taoiseach his plans for visits to Britain. [16858/16]

View answer

Micheál Martin

Question:

3. Deputy Micheál Martin asked the Taoiseach the status of his visit to the United Kingdom to ask Irish persons there to vote for it to remain in the European Union. [16954/16]

View answer

Richard Boyd Barrett

Question:

4. Deputy Richard Boyd Barrett asked the Taoiseach his plans to campaign in Britain on the referendum on a British exit from the European Union. [17144/16]

View answer

Micheál Martin

Question:

5. Deputy Micheál Martin asked the Taoiseach his plans regarding the Irish response to the British referendum vote. [17338/16]

View answer

Oral answers (12 contributions)

I propose to take Questions Nos. 1 to 5, inclusive, together.

The UK's decision on EU membership later this week is solely a matter for UK voters. However, those voters include Irish citizens living in Great Britain, voters in Northern Ireland and UK citizens living here. As the UK's closest neighbour, Ireland has a unique perspective and interest in the outcome of the referendum. The Government has made clear our hope that the UK will decide to stay in the European Union.

I and other members of the Government have completed a targeted programme of outreach in Great Britain and Northern Ireland to Irish and Irish-connected citizens in the UK who have a vote. Last week, I had engagements in Belfast and a programme of events in Liverpool, Manchester and Glasgow, where I met with the Irish community. I also attended a summit meeting of the British-Irish Council in Glasgow. My programme coincided with the shocking death of Jo Cox, MP, in West Yorkshire, to whom we have just paid our respects. Out of respect for her and her family and in light of the suspension of the two official campaigns, I refrained from issuing any public statements about the referendum. I have no specific plans to visit Great Britain as of now.

Ireland will have a clear plan in place to deal with the implications of a UK vote to leave if that is the outcome, which I hope will not be the case. The key priority for Government would be to protect and promote Ireland's interests to the greatest extent possible in the event that the UK votes to leave. We have a whole-of-Government contingency framework which maps the key issues that would be most important to Ireland, dealing with the economy, trade and spending power in the days, weeks and months following a "leave" vote. In the event of that becoming a reality, this would be the framework within which each Minister, Department and agency would manage the policy, operational and programmatic implications that could arise from a UK vote to leave the EU. It will be capable of adapting to changing circumstances, depending on developments in the context of ongoing EU-UK negotiations on new arrangements and bilateral discussions between the UK and Irish Governments.

A key priority would be to mitigate as far as possible any potential disruption to trade, investment and jobs. In this regard, many commentators have suggested a period of volatility in the markets and suggested that sterling would suffer losses against the euro. It remains to be seen if this is the case and the extent to which markets have already priced in any degree of risk. However, if a sustained decrease in the value of sterling did transpire, clearly this would have serious implications for our exports. Given the importance of the Irish enterprise sector, the enterprise agencies are factoring this issue into their own contingency planning and are tracking where potential impacts may arise. Enterprise Ireland already has a significant number of programmes available to companies who face competitive threats from various sources. In addition, a key policy priority in recent years for both the Department of Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation and Enterprise Ireland has been to support geographic market diversification.

Our contingency framework also contains clear actions on communications and diplomatic contacts. In this regard, I will travel to Brussels next week for the European Council meeting where EU leaders will have a first opportunity to discuss the referendum result, to assess its implications and to begin to chart a way forward. I intend to make a more detailed statement on Ireland's position in my pre-Council statement to the House after the conclusion of these questions.

It is important to again put on the record of the House the enormity of the potential consequences for jobs, trade, travel, tourism and the agrifood sector in this country. Trade between here and the UK accounts for almost 400,000 direct jobs, and 43% of our exports go to the UK. We know that the ESRI has reported that there could be an immediate reduction in trade of up to 20% if the Brexit vote to leave is carried. Teagasc has also reported that there could be a huge reduction in the value of Irish agrifood exports, ranging from €150 million to almost €800 million. This puts it into context.

When I talk to people about this matter, such as people in the business or farming community or members of the general public, they feel that the Government does not have a handle on the plan we will deploy if the vote to leave passes. Have we a plan B? Has any scenario been planned in that instance? Are we hoping against hope that it will not happen?

Can the Taoiseach give us any kind of reassurance on the contingency planning that has happened? In his initial response he said that the Government has a clear plan in place but he has not given us any real detail. Who has been involved in drawing up this plan? How many Departments and State agencies have been involved? Can we get any kind of an insight into it? The campaign run by the Taoiseach and other political leaders was interrupted by the murder of Jo Cox, which we spoke about earlier, and I offer my condolences to her family and community. The European Movement office tells us of a huge British community here in Ireland that should have been influenced a little bit more. The Irish community in the UK could also have been influenced a little bit more. Will the Taoiseach comment on the contingency planning and give us a little more detail?

I agree with the Taoiseach that the issue of how people in Britain vote in the Brexit referendum is a matter for voters there but unfortunately, aside from all the other implications, it is a vote which will have a direct impact on the people in the North. Most opinion polls suggest that the vote to leave the EU remains very strong and that the two sides are almost evenly split. I spent Saturday in Belfast taking part in Sinn Féin's day of action across the North calling for a remain vote. The murder of Labour MP, Jo Cox, cast a shadow over this but the response from those I met was very positive. Sinn Féin has real concerns about some aspects of the European Union, particularly the democratic deficit in the decision-making processes. We want a more democratic and social European Union. Nevertheless, to have one part of this island inside the European Union and the other outside will not be good for the island. It is not in Ireland's interest to have border posts or trade barriers. It is also very much the case that the British Government wants either to do away with the human rights elements of the Good Friday Agreement or not to implement equality protocols which are central to it. They will find this much easier to do if they are not part of the EU. I do not know any more than anyone else what the outcome of the vote will be but if it is to leave, the two-year divorce period for the British to negotiate their withdrawal would also be hugely destabilising.

Last week, we received a confidential briefing from officials from the Taoiseach's Department on the Government's approach and preparations and I thank the Taoiseach for facilitating that. It emphasised the huge amount of confusion and uncertainty that exists around any process of Brexit. Others in the Chamber have a different view, but for those of us who even reluctantly want to see people remaining in the European Union, we should use this opportunity to express our support for the remain side in the referendum. It is well known that the only Brexit that Sinn Féin wants to see is a Brexit from Ireland of the British Government. I reiterate our strong support for a referendum on Irish unity and our appeal to the Government to support this as part of the Good Friday Agreement.

I have two Deputies to call. They will have to be brief if we are to have time to get an answer to these questions.

I was due in Belfast on Friday but because of the murder of Jo Cox, I had to curtail my canvassing, as did Deputy Adams. I am very concerned about the absence of contingency planning. In the discussions I had with the Independents on the formation of Government, it was very clear to us that very little scenario planning in terms of the economy or the impact on agriculture had been undertaken by Departments. There have been some academic papers published but there would appear to be a lot of prayer and hope that it goes the right way as opposed to any considered contingency planning.

In terms of the European Council meeting next week, there are two responses - one in the event of a "Yes" vote for Brexit and the second in the context of a "No" vote. If there is a "Yes" vote, it is extremely important that we have a prepared position as a country going into that council meeting. Cool heads should prevail. In the aftermath of Lisbon, we had to move in very quickly to the Foreign Affairs Council to make sure that hotheads did not get their day which would have set everybody back. Likewise, whatever the result, we need cool heads and a considered and reflective view by the European Union and by this Parliament. If a decision to break with the EU is taken, we need calm and cool heads in the aftermath of that and planning and proper preparation of the best strategy for Ireland. Ireland will face unique challenges as a member of the European Union and because of its historical special relationship with Britain in terms of the common travel area, trade and exports which have to be protected in any new scenario. If the vote is "No", which I hope it is, and Britain remains, I would equally suggest that we should seize the moment at the European Council meeting and say to our European colleagues that this is a moment for reflection and a moment when real lessons have to be learned about how Europe is going about its business. There is significant disconnect between the citizens of Europe and the European institutions.

I have been pointing at this over quite a number of years and there has been a lot of work and research done on this. There have been attempts in terms of the democratisation of the parliament to make it more connected. It is extremely important that the debate in Britain fuels a wider debate across Europe on how we can reconnect the values, principles and ideals of the European Union with citizens on the ground - in other words, the idealism and energy that led to the post-war leaders, the people who saw that nationalist or independent, isolationist pursuits led to conflict, coming together in international partnerships to prevent world wars and horrific consequences. In the bigger picture, Europe has succeeded in that respect. There is a lot of talk about subsidiarity in terms of decision making, but it has not happened.

In terms of the hierarchy of decision making, Europe is still involved too much at the lower level of minutiae and detail on the ground which should be left to national parliaments and national Governments. There is a lot of work to be done at the European Council meeting. Irrespective of the outcome, but particularly if it is a "No" to Brexit and Britain remains in the European Union, which is what I believe would be in the best interest of Britain, Ireland, Europe and the world, we should use it as an opportunity for really serious reflection by all across Europe to make sure that the idealism of the original concept is brought back to centre stage of European politics.

We in People Before Profit want absolutely nothing to do with some of the vile and racist forces that are campaigning for an exit from the European Union in Britain, some of whom have stoked up the sort of racist conditions and sentiment that took the life of Labour MP, Jo Cox. We must all dissociate ourselves from that. Having said that, I disagree with the consensus in the House that the way to deal with the virulent rise of racism, prejudice, islamophobia and the growth of far right forces in Europe is to stay in the European Union in the hope of reforming it. Is it not the case that the European Union is the architect of its own crisis and that it has caused the problems that have now produced such widespread disaffection? This is summed up by the comments by Jean-Claude Juncker in January 2015, when the Syriza government was first elected, that, "To suggest that everything is going to change because there is a new government in Athens is to mistake dreams for reality... There can be no democratic choice against the European treaties."

Is the problem not fundamentally that the leaders of the European Union are saying democracy has gone out the window with the European Union and that that has been compounded with the disgusting racist fortress-Europe policy that has led to the deaths of thousands of people trying to get into Europe? While Europe parades as a beacon of progress, in fact, its own racists policies vis-à-vis desperate people fleeing from Syria involves throwing them back to the Turkish Government, which is now shooting them. Last week, Syrian refugees were shot. Europe has signed an agreement with Turkey to allow that to happen and it is throwing those desperate people back to Turkey to allow it to shoot them. Is it those misguided undemocratic fortress-Europe policies and austerity policies that have created the crisis that is now consuming us? In that context, would we be better off supporting not Brexit but the left exit campaign of saying we want European internationalism - in fact, we want comprehensive internationalism that goes beyond the boundaries of Europe - if we are to undermine and defeat the dangerous forces of racism and the far right that the European Union itself has helped to stoke up?

In light of the importance and the currency of the issue, the Taoiseach may take two or three minutes.

Deputies Niall Collins, Martin, Adams and Boyd Barrett raised a number of important questions.

In response to Deputy Collins, there is a €60 billion trade across the Irish Sea every year and, obviously, as the Deputy pointed out, 400,000 jobs at stake here - 200,000 on this side and 200,000 in Britain. These are matters of great concern to Irish exporters, many of whom export heavy equipment to Britain and through Britain to other countries. They make the point that if the British electorate were to vote to leave, this would cause an imposition in terms of paperwork, customs or whatever which would lead to inefficiency, time wasting, a lack of competitiveness and probably a lack of jobs.

Another point is that while people might reflect between our position and Northern Ireland, it actually would be not an Irish border from Dundalk to Derry but a European border because we would be a member of the European Union and Britain would want to withdraw from it, if it made a decision to do so. Obviously, as has been pointed out, that would carry its own implications. It would be a European border as distinct from an Irish border. In respect of Deputy Adams's point, I take that on board.

Deputy Martin raised the question of contingency planning. I do not want to set out a strategy here that the Government or the people in Ireland believe that this will be a negative vote and that the British people will vote to leave the European Union because one must wait and see what the answer will be. However, it is important to state that voting takes place on Thursday and it goes on until 10 p.m. that night. The counting of votes starts immediately. By 3 a.m. or 4 a.m. on Friday, one should be in a position to get a prediction of what might happen here. There are no official exit polls being taken, although I understand many of the trading houses and financial institutions have been closely monitoring the situation. I suppose the movement of sterling in itself would be an indication of the way that they may be thinking. The announcement will be made from Manchester of the overall result. Suffice to say that we have been considering all of this and that from 5 a.m. on Friday, the contingency framework that Ireland would put in place here would be considered.

I want to make it clear again that I hope that the British electorate votes in favour of remaining as a member of the European Union. In the past 48 hours, I feel some sense of a different reflection about this vote from the British electorate and, as I say, I hope they vote to remain. I can assure the Deputies and the party leaders that there is a full-scale contingency programme in place which I hope that we do not have to use. That programme would deal with headline issues, such as the calling of a Government meeting, if that were deemed appropriate, and contact with other leaders in other cities in Europe. However, as Deputy Martin rightly pointed out, there is a need here for level-headedness and a measured response. If the vote were to be to leave, it would not mean that Britain is gone from the European Union on Friday. There is still a two-year window there of negotiations and complex discussions. In respect of our response to such a vote, it would be about the economy, trade, jobs and investment and about whether sterling would remain strong or whether it would collapse, and if so, for how long, what that would mean for Enterprise Ireland and for agencies dealing with small and medium-sized enterprises, and how they would support diversification into the market and beyond through Europe. These are issues that, obviously, would be considered as part of any contingency plan, were such to kick-in.

I agree completely with Deputy Martin on the following point. If this vote is to stay, and I hope it is, there is a lesson here for Europe too. One cannot have a situation where the President of the Commission, Mr. Jean-Claude Juncker, was found to have put in place an infrastructural fund of €400 billion for major projects across Europe and that countries would have the right to draw on that under certain conditions but have the imposition of particular conditions set by EUROSTAT, which is an independent entity, that would mean there would be restrictions on what countries could do, when one can borrow money at a negative or very low interest rate to provide services and facilities for people, such as housing. Approval for a case in Britain has been withdrawn. This does not help the situation. I agree that not everything about the European Union is perfect and that this is an opportunity, if the people in Britain vote to stay, to reflect on the structure of Europe and on when the European Council makes political decisions, how they should be implemented in the interests of their citizens. That is an issue about which I have already written to the President of the Commission and to the leaders, that others are now taking up and that will become an issue for reflection there.

Deputy Boyd Barrett quoted from a document. If I heard the Deputy correctly, I think he stated that there was no choice in respect of the European treaties. The treaties are approved or not by the people in the different countries. We had a number of referenda here where the people voted twice in order to have a deeper reflection on the issue, whether on the Nice treaty, the Lisbon treaty or whatever.

On the Turkish deal for migration, the problem here, to be quite straight with Deputy Boyd Barrett, was how was one to deal with the people smugglers who have inveigled people to pay serious sums to get on rubber rafts or rickety boats to attempt the crossing to Greece and inevitably end up in the water with many drowned. The intention was that people who would arrive as illegal asylum seekers or refugees would go back to camps in Turkey funded by the European Union but be replaced by legitimate asylum seekers who had moved to Turkey under the refugee or asylum programme. The intention genuinely was around how to deal with the people smugglers who have no care or interest in respect of the many thousands who have drowned in the Mediterranean. That was what the issue was about. I note Deputy Boyd Barrett disagrees with it.

They are now being shot.

In that sense, the focus of Europe was on how one deals with this when they are coming from the other side. There is a search and rescue mission led by NATO, of which Ireland is not part, off the Turkish coast in four different segments and people smugglers have been picked up to some extent in that quarter.

The Taoiseach must conclude because we must move on.

I will consult the leaders of the Opposition parties as this develops through Thursday night late-Friday morning and we can keep Members informed.

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