The Summer Economic Statement (SES) published in June this year set out a baseline or pre-Budget fiscal forecast (Table A1) and also an ex-post forecast (Table 3) reflecting an indicative allocation of fiscal space between tax and expenditure.
As summarised below, the pre-Budget forecast shows an increase in gross voted current expenditure between 2016 and 2021 of €2.62 billion. This increase reflects certain expenditure pressures in Health, Education and Social Protection arising from demographics, additional expenditure in Agriculture arising from the roll-out of the Rural Development Programme, and the carry-over impact of certain Budget 2016 measures, including the Lansdowne Road Agreement. An adjustment is also included to take account of expected lower numbers on the Live Register. Further detail in relation to these amounts for the period 2017 to 2019 is set out in Table 1.7 on Page 8 of the Mid-Year Expenditure Report 2016 published by my Department this month.
The ex-post forecast in the SES shows an increase in gross voted current expenditure between 2016 and 2021 of €6.78 billion. The difference between the pre-Budget increase of €2.62 billion and the increase in the ex-post forecast represents the indicative allocation to gross voted current expenditure of fiscal space amounting to a cumulative €4.16 billion over the period 2017 to 2021. This indicative allocation by year is set out in Table 1.1 on page 2 of the Mid-Year Expenditure Report 2016.
|
-
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
|
Pre-Budget Forecast
|
€ bn
|
€ bn
|
€ bn
|
€ bn
|
€ bn
|
€ bn
|
|
Gross Voted Current Expenditure
|
51.87
|
52.58
|
53.20
|
53.60
|
54.03
|
54.49
|
|
year on year change
|
|
0.71
|
0.62
|
0.41
|
0.43
|
0.46
|
|
Ex Post Forecast
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Voted Current Expenditure
|
51.87
|
53.18
|
54.41
|
55.76
|
57.21
|
58.65
|
|
year on year change
|
|
1.31
|
1.23
|
1.36
|
1.45
|
1.44
|
Turning to capital investment, the pre-Budget forecast in the SES includes the increases set out in the Public Capital Plan published in September last year. Table 1.1 in the Mid-Year Expenditure Report 2016 summarises the indicative allocation by year of the cumulative additional €5.14 billion in capital expenditure included in the ex-post forecast in the SES.
Tables 1.5 and 1.6 in the Mid-Year Expenditure Report 2016 set out the pre-Budget current and capital expenditure ceilings by Ministerial Vote Group for the period 2017 to 2019. The costs relating to the Lansdowne Road Agreement are included in a central provision and will be allocated by Department as part of the Budget 2017 Estimates process. Further detail in relation to expenditure on a Departmental basis is also set out in the Annex to the Report. Pre-Budget ceilings in respect of current expenditure have not been set on a Departmental basis for periods after 2019. Consequently, the figures included in the pre-Budget forecast in the SES use the aggregate overall increase of c. €0.4 billion in respect of demographic related costs for 2019, adjusted for a lower amount being available for reallocation within expenditure from Live Register savings in subsequent years.
