Dáil Éireann Debate, Friday - 16 September 2016
323. Deputy Sean Sherlock asked the Minister for Finance when he will publish updated forecasts of growth and fiscal space in advance of budget 2017 in light of the significant economic events of the summer; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [26054/16]
View answerMy Department will prepare a full macroeconomic projection in advance of Budget 2017 in October. In accordance with the endorsement process, officials from my Department will go through the normal procedural steps with the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council required under the Memorandum of Understanding. This requires my Department to provide preliminary forecasts to the Council Secretariat no later than 15 days prior to Budget day. Following an iterative process, during which the forecasts can be further refined as more information becomes available, my Department will formally present the macroeconomic forecasts to the Council on the 4th of October 2016. The Council will make its final decision on endorsement of the forecasts before Budget day. Forecasts provided to IFAC will be published.
The Budget day publication will include updated projections for economic growth and the fiscal space, taking account of developments up to that time, including both the outcome of the UK referendum in June and the GDP revisions for 2015 published in July by the CSO.
Revised fiscal space estimates will also be published on Budget day but, notwithstanding the significant economic developments mentioned above, it is not expected that the estimates of overall fiscal space for 2017 will change substantially from those already published in the Summer Economic Statement, given that most of the inputs needed to calculate the available space under the expenditure benchmark have been fixed following the publication of the European Commission's spring forecasts.
