Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 2 April 2019
119. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the projected one-off or temporary measures of spending from 2019 to 2024 or the latest available date in percentage of GDP and gross terms in tabular form. [15216/19]
View answer121. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the expenditure allowed in 2020 and 2021 that would be permissible before breaching the medium-term budgetary objectives taking into account projected general Government balances; and if he will provide the same data for different Brexit scenarios. [15218/19]
View answer122. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the projected fiscal space from 2019 to 2024 or the latest available date; and if he will provide the same data for different Brexit scenarios in tabular form. [15219/19]
View answer123. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the projected total general Government revenue from 2019 to 2024 in both gross figures and as a percentage of GDP; and if he will provide the same data projected for different Brexit scenarios. [15220/19]
View answer124. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the projected total general Government expenditure from 2019 to 2024 in both gross figures and as a percentage of GDP; and if he will provide the same data projected for different Brexit scenarios. [15221/19]
View answerI propose to take Questions Nos. 119 and 121 to 124, inclusive, together.
The most recent projections for general government revenue, expenditure and one-off/temporary measures were outlined in my Department's Autumn forecasts contained in the Economic and Fiscal Outlook which was published as part of Budget 2019. These figures are reproduced in the table.
My officials are in the process of preparing the Stability Programme Update 2019 (SPU), which will update these projections taking into account the most up-to-date information.
Projections beyond 2023 have not been compiled by my Department.
|
- |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
|
general government revenue, € million |
85,235 |
88,900 |
92,600 |
96,645 |
100,675 |
|
general government expenditure, € million |
85,310 |
87,840 |
90,985 |
92,480 |
94,865 |
|
one-off/temporary measures, € million |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
general government revenue, per cent of GDP |
25.0 |
24.7 |
24.6 |
24.6 |
24.6 |
|
general government expenditure, per cent of GDP |
25.0 |
24.4 |
24.2 |
23.6 |
23.2 |
|
one-off/temporary measures, per cent of GDP |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
The economic and budgetary outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty at present, given the UK's forthcoming exit from the European Union. In this regard, my Department has published several pieces of analysis in order to inform Government of the likely macroeconomic and fiscal consequences, and these are available on my Department's website.
The analysis published last week in conjunction with the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) shows the impact of a number of scenarios (from orderly to disorderly exit) taking into account a wider set of channels (including tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FDI impact).
In a disorderly, no-deal scenario, the level of economic activity in Ireland after a decade would be around 5 percentage points below a hypothetical scenario in which the UK did not leave the EU. The general government balance would be 1 percentage point worse. These budgetary data are available on a headline basis only; a breakdown between general government revenue and expenditure is not available.
The model used to generate these forecasts is a medium-term structural model of the Irish economy. These structural models are designed inter alia to simulate shocks to the economy but, as is normally the case, the impact is assessed over the medium-term. These models are generally less-suited to short-term diagnostics. This requires an element of judgement and, on this basis, my Department will publish economic forecasts over the 2019-2023 period under different scenarios in the forthcoming SPU.
As I have said previously, budgetary policy will be based on doing what is right for the economy and not on the basis of ill-fitting fiscal rules. In this regard, I would direct the Deputy to the Parliamentary Budget Office whose role is to assist the Oireachtas in these matters.
The Deputy will be aware that there are several inputs to calculate the so-called structural balance, with many moving parts. Revised numbers will be set out in the SPU. I would stress once again, however, that minimum compliance with the fiscal rules is not an appropriate policy at this stage of the economic cycle.
